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Hopefully this is better than my previous suggestion...
Quickly Sold:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27619103 Appears to have easily gotten 3.5 keys.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27389221 Sold for 3 keys 8 ref.
Classifieds at time of posting http://imgur.com/FOLOg2h :
Buy orders-
3 keys 7 ref (regularly bumped, and a bot)
3 keys 6.55 ref (not bumped)
3 keys 6.33 ref
3 keys 6 ref (regularly bumped, and a bot)
and lower...
Sell Orders-
2x 3 keys 12 ref (bots)
3 keys 13 ref
2x 3 keys 14 ref
the rest are 4 keys+
Reasonable OP Trades:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27685940
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27693524
Where'd you get 4 keys from? You'll need a sale at 4 keys to include it as the high range.
Another suggestion is up, which has proofs of sales at 4 keys (range being 3.5-4 keys). Don't really know what to do here, so I'll stay neutral for now. Link to the other suggestion: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/56856462b98d88277ee94b11
You can't rise price with sellers.
Rise is supported, but I can't see 4 keys being in that range.