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Sale 1: Sold for 345 Keys
http://backpack.tf/item/4679191968
Sold for a Secret to Everybody Soldier's Stash (345 Keys)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198026194410#!/compare/1462838400/1462924800
Stash Mini
http://backpack.tf/suggestion/572d177fc4404531c301ed39 - 345 Keys
Sale 2 Sold for 355 Keys
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198192740165#!/compare/1463356800/1463443200 - Sold + Vivid Hazmat (405) for a Searing Cardbeard (760)
Makes the Translator 355 Keys
Cardbeard Mini
http://backpack.tf/suggestion/57403e5886674721e9701e89 - 760
Hazmat Mini
http://backpack.tf/suggestion/572c791883de6b62ae6dfa67 - 405
Sale 3: Sold for 351.5 Keys
GE Rotation (185) + Mega Strike Rancho (115) + FT Unusual Airwolf Wrench (51.5) = 351.5 Keys
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198100148760#!/compare/1463529600/1464134400
Rotation Mini
http://backpack.tf/suggestion/5748d16d83de6b6d483c7212 - 185
Wrench Mini
http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Unusual%20Airwolf%20Wrench%20%28Field-Tested%29[/url] - Last sale is 48 - 55 Keys (51.5)
Sale 4: Sold for 323.5 Keys
Morning Glory Ninja Hood (145) + 100 Keys + Kill-a-Watt Killer Exclusive (78.5) = 323.5 Keys
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069230599#!/compare/1463788800/1464048000
Sale 5: 325 keys
Sold for a Scorching Fortunate Son (160) and Burning Bomber's Bucket (165 keys) = 325 keys
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197993817775?time=1463875200
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197993817775?time=1464047779
http://backpack.tf/suggestion/575077d6c440453aa147b92b - mini on bomber
Sale 6: 290 keys
Another sale here for 290 keys
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198035013576#!/compare/1464048000/1464739200
Sale 7: 300 keys
Another sale here for 300 keys
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198158742903#!/compare/1463097600/1463270400
All together we got seven sales ranging from 290 keys to 355 keys
Call this a middle point between Shuffle Spy's Suggestion and Foamy's Findings.
All credit goes to those guys for finding proof, I'm just updating the price.
I was about to make this suggestion, but you've beat me to it.
However, I'm still unsure on counting the 300, and especially 290 sale. The 300 happened in less than a day, and 290 was up for 3 days. So far there have been two sellers for under 300, one of which is still up (Troll toll) and the second was wizzy, who ended up selling it on opskins. I'm not sure these two should be taken into account given that the sales happened fast, and offers on the outpost sellers are consistently more than 300. 5 out of 7 sales point to 325-355.
I should have let you put it up man, since you were in the original thread. However the reason I have taken this sales into account is not only because of what Foamy said here:
"Theres multiple sellers that have had their trade open at 300 for a reasonable time. For situations such as these, you need to take into consideration why quicksales are sometimes excluded from ranges: If a hat consistently sells for higher than a certain value, and then has one sale that happened fast, was full pure and was significantly below a certain range, then it is not reasonable to drag down a range because one trader clearly took less than the hat commonly gets. That does not apply when there are so many sales/sellers here. Theres at least 3 sales in the comment sections that are at 300 or slightly below, and there is still a 300 seller left. The fact that it can happen fast does not mean that it and everything lower should be an outlier."
But also because of the Guide for Unusual Price Suggestions which advices that when you set a range you use both a Low End and a High End. The Low End as described by the guide is "...no lower than commonly offered / traded values of a hat" also known as the quicksell value.
Whilst the High End is "...no higher than common b/o's and bounded by the high end sales and offers."
http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/6033-guide-for-unusual-price-suggestions/
I've just discussed the matter with Face on Steam; Ill display them here for you to see as well
To put matters into perspective, there's a few additional things to consider here:
- The searing beard suggestion linked here has been closed, and a new one was made, averaging 690. With that, Sale 2 will be <300
- The scorching fortunate in sale 5 is outdated and would require a mini. It has a young seller at 120, which is probably not the best to use directly, but it would indicate that 325 for that sale may be slightly higher than the actual value of that sale. Furthermore, the buyer from that sale is currently selling for 300, and has not sold for nearly two weeks: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28201528 which also says something about the pure value he expected out of his hats.
Other than that, there have been a few other sales that I hadn't listed yet when the last suggestion was closed:
Sold for nebula head full of hot air (90) + ~195 keys
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112281935#!/compare/1464134400/1464220800
~285
Sold for duped scorching company man (?) + abduction headfull of hot air (~37) + VHP phononaut (~45) + a 7 key flamethrower reskin
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197960533774#!/compare/1463875200/1463961600
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112281935#!/compare/1463875200/1463961600
I've tried to find a decent mini on the company man, but havent found one. Its likely that this would fall within the range anyway, but Junio had buyouts of 300 on both of his sales (this and the one above)
http://prntscr.com/b8jxal
That would cap his sale at 300.
Sold for burning hotties hoodie + burning private eye + burning duty rag + frostbite swagman
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120481051#!/compare/1464739200/1464825600
All of those are either unpriced or heavily outdated. At current prices, that would be <300, but in reality thats probably fairly close to 300. (but based on estimates, so meh).
All in all that gives two sales below 290 (the hfoha and the last sale I mentioned), which can be excluded; referring to the quoted part from the guideline where it states that hats shouldnt be valued below what they commonly/easily sell for or what they commonly get offered. Arguably 290 could be excluded as well for that same reason, but in this case that wont matter much (See bottom of my comment).
All of these things considered, the majority of the sales are now at/around 300-320. However, on the current ones listed on outpost, item offers higher than 300 are not uncommon. In this situation, the common trading point of these should be around 300-350, based on the allotted sales, sellers and offers.
Since the suggested value here is 290-355 (on average only 2 keys away from the rough 300-350 mentioned above here), this will be close enough, and will make this fall within our accepted margin of error.