Sale 1:

Sold for Strange Hot Low Profile SMG (Battle-Scarred) (Mini at 30+)

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063783607#!/compare/1462665600/1462924800

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198266400501#!/compare/1462665600/1462752000

X = 30+

Sale 2:

Sold for Pro. KS Aussie Black Box

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198141840452#!/compare/1464566400/1464998400

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198096550598#!/compare/1464566400/1464998400

X = 24

Sale 3:

Sold for Flies Glengarry Bonnet (mini at 12 below) + ~7 keys in items

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198215274576#!/compare/1464998400/1465084800

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075858199#!/compare/1464998400/1465084800

X = 19

Sale 4:

Sold for Hot Low Profile SMG (Field-Tested) + 2 keys

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053717045#!/compare/1465430400/1465516800

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197998934095#!/compare/1465430400/1465516800

X = 19

Sale 5:

Sold for Planets Your Worst Nightmare

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28244429 - B/O of 17

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068841990#!/compare/1465516800/146560 3200

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066256810#!/compare/1465516800/1465603200

X = 17

Sale 6:

Sold for Australium Stickybomb Launcher (17 at the time)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28159574 - B/O of 17

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198073592638#!/compare/1463011200/1463097600

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086978807#!/compare/1462924800/1463011200

X = 17

Sale 7:

Sold for Strange Coldsnap Coat (6.75) + Strange AWPer Hand (5.55) + Pool Party (4) + 1 key skin

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198081708199#!/compare/1464480000/1464566400

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198141840452#!/compare/1464566400/1464998400

X = 17 (rounded from 17.3)

Sale 8:

Sold for Bubbling Liquidator’s Lid + ~8 keys in items

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28289239 - B/O of 16

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198192861670#!/compare/1466899200/1466985600

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198042499763#!/compare/1466985600/1467158400

Lid’s price is outdated, but it cannot drop far enough for it to affect the value of this sale here

X = 16 (Capped by B/O)

Sale 9:

Sold for 13 keys + ~3 keys in items

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28246093 - B/O of 16

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197998934095#!/compare/1465689600/1465776000

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094311795#!/compare/1465689600/1465776000

X = 16

Sale 10:

Sold for 15 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28128214 - B/O of 15

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198083286148#!/compare/1462233600/1462320000

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198046858854#!/compare/1462233600/1462320000

X = 15

Sale 11: (dupe)

Sold for 15 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27955657 - B/O of 16, seller confirm sale (legend)

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198056793444#!/compare/1460073600/1460160000

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050372638#!/compare/1460160000/1464220800

X = 15

Sale 12:

Sold for Green Confetti Chieftain’s Challenge

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28078686 - B/O of 15

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198082874812#!/compare/1460678400/1460764800

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055367686#!/compare/1460764800/1461024000

X = 15 (Capped by B/O)

Sale 13: (Dupe)

Sold for 14 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28086295 - B/O of 14

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198096014722#!/compare/1461542400/1461628800

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198034617773#!/compare/1461542400/1461888000

X = 14

Sale 14:

Sold for 12 keys + White Summer Shades

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044444305#!/compare/1464998400/1465084800

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198215274576#!/compare/1464998400/1465084800

X = 13

Sale 15:

Sold with ~2 keys in items for Killstreak Australium Stickybomb Launcher

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198202188972#!/compare/1466035200/1466121600

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198141667748#!/compare/1465948800/1466035200

X + 2 = 15

X = 13

Sale 16:

Quicksold for 13 keys

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198272590137#!/compare/1464652800/1464739200

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044444305#!/compare/1464566400/1464739200

X = 13

Sale 17:

Sold with ~1 key in items for Smoking Hermes

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198174556341#!/compare/1465171200/1465257600

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198202188972#!/compare/1465171200/1465948800

X + 1 = 13

X = 12

Sale 18: (Dupe)

Scammed?

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198149480404#!/compare/1463702400/1463961600

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061413391#!/compare/1463875200/1464652800

X = 0

Sale 19:

NOOOOO

Sold for Killstreak Autumn Rocket Launcher

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198030323174#!/compare/1466467200/1466640000

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198143097099#!/compare/1466553600/1466640000

X = 0 (rounded from less than 0.5)

Sale 20:

Sold for Nuts n Bolts Titanium Tyrolean + Strange Pro. KS Eviction Notice

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198258578200#!/compare/1463184000/1463270400

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198081708199#!/compare/1463184000/1463270400

Would rather use this sale to update the Tyrolean, due to lack of sales on it

Sale 21:

Sold for Stormy Virtual Reality Headset

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198078371922#!/compare/1464566400/1464652800

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198272590137#!/compare/1464566400/1464652800

Not many sales on the Headset, would rather update it with this sale.

Flies Glengarry Bonnet Mini:

Sold for Vintage Spec. KS Lugermorph + 6 keys + 1 key in items

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28292480 - B/O of 11.5

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198157317500#!/compare/1466985600/1467072000

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198164036774#!/compare/1466985600/1467072000

X = 12 (Capped by B/O, rounded)

Strange Hot Low Profile SMG (Battle-Scarred) Mini:

Sold for Purple Energy Big Elfin Deal + 3 keys in items

No outpost

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095002538#!/compare/1465948800/1466035200

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054306954#!/compare/1465948800/1466035200

Elfin Deal is outdated, but this sale most likely would exceed 30 keys.

Sellers:

15.5 keys:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28280099 - 6 days

16 keys:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28295463 (me) - 1 day

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28261481 - 1 week

17 keys:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28211868 - 1 month

Buyer at 13 keys:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27631368

Sales at:

30+

24

19 (2x)

17 (3x)

16 (2x)

15 (3x)

14

13 (3x)

12

0 (2x)

0 is excluded.

Sales at 24 and 30 are obvious outliers

13 is excluded due to the buyer at 13 keys

Sale at 14 is a dupe sale, would probably be best to not set a low end with a dupe sale

Excluding the sales at 19, as they aren’t as common as the sales at 15-17, and due to the current sellers at 15-17

Going with 15-17