Price Suggestion
Nuts n' Bolts Backwards Ballcap
Submitted by ★ Bactrian Camel
86.67%
11–12 keys
15 keys
5
~16.5 keys
n&b
Unusual Backwards Ballcap Nuts n' Bolts
26 votes up
4 votes down
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Comments

COUNTER. I don't like seeing Unusuals underpriced. :(


http://backpack.tf/suggestion/57b2722ac440451d506e2f84

Sales are at 11, 11, 12, and 15 keys. The sale at 15 keys was deemed an OUTLIER. This is not the case. While 75% of the sales in the suggestion occurred between 11-12 keys, that value more accurately reflects its quicksell value.


Why the 11 and 12 key sales are outliers:

http://i.imgur.com/lZLQjLj.png

Buyers up to 11 keys in classifieds.


http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26684802

Buyer has a buy price at 12 keys here.


http://i.imgur.com/ACyAHSe.png

On SCM buy orders are up to $29-$31.37 (the buyer pays a value of about 11.5-12.5 keys @ $2.49 per key). In addition, most sales for Unusual Ballcaps don't fall below $40 (~16 keys).


http://i.imgur.com/maj75x0.png

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28305826

Lowest seller is selling at 15 keys (DECLINED an offer of a Purple Fetti Panama, recently updated at 14 keys)


http://i.imgur.com/aaio9HR.png

On the Ballcap pricelist there is a big gap between the bottom two prices (Smoking and Nuts). Smoking being priced at 16-18 keys, and Nuts being priced at 11-12 keys. That's about a 32% difference in value between the bottom two effects, and these are fairly common hats with 30+ in existence for each. It's inconsistent.


There is a SALE at 15 keys, so this should really be priced at 15 keys.

Avatar ★ Bactrian Camel · posted

    While I agree 15 should not have been deemed an outlier (didnt handle that), I do believe having a range here is better. if 75% of the sales here consists of people wanting to part with this hat for 11 or 12 keys, then 15 flat based on a single sale seems unreasonable to me.


    http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28305826 that same buyer hasnt managed to sell for a whole month [edit: nearly 2 months] at 15. The two sellers that sold it for 11 and 12 keys respectively had their trades up for a combined time of approximately a week and a half at 12 or 13 keys. This may not be that long, but if anything below 15 would really be a QS value, then that would have sold faster, and if 15 flat would be the appropriate value, you'd expect it to sell faster at 15 too.


    I also want to point out that - even though Toreutic did end up buying one for 12 pure in the end - he seems to have declined the cap here:

    http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26684802


    That same person that offered it to him for 12 sold it for 11 a day later. The dude that bought it for 11 ended up selling it to him.


    Similar to how I do not want a single seller to dominate or flatten out an entire suggestion (i.e with 3 sales at 15 and 1 seller at 12, I wouldnt make it 12 flat either), so too do I not really want a single buyer to have that exact same effect on a hat.

    Avatar Vijf Kilo Boter (met voetjes) · posted

      I guess. :p Personally I feel the value is closer to 13-15 keys but I wouldn't object to a range of 12-15 keys too much. 12 keys is somewhat low, but 11 keys is definitely too low. If I wanted to resell I'd definitely pay 11 keys for one. So range 12-15 keys sounds better to you?

      Avatar ★ Bactrian Camel · posted