Going with a conservative drop, thanks Foamy.

Sale 1

Sold for 13 keys + 10 refs

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197978210095#!/compare/1467676800/1467763200

No Outpost trade

Antosheek had it since last year, so not a quicksale. There is an unsold at 14 for almost a month, so i'm rounding down to 13.

http://backpack.tf/item/3006744486

=======> ~13 keys

======================================================

Sale 2

Bulk for Hearts Trilby

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054085401#!/compare/1468022400/1468108800

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28315709 ----- B/O was 16 keys

=======> Not using

======================================================

Sale 3

Sold to Scrap.tf, but the B/O was 15 keys.

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043936328#!/compare/1472083200/1472169600

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28398155

=======> Not using

======================================================

Sale 4

Sold with ~13 refs in sweets for a Stormy VRH (outdated at 16.5)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198110670986#!/compare/1469836800/1469923200

No Outpost trade

Could be used for the VRH.

=======> Not using

======================================================

Sale 5

Sold for a Strange PKS Festive Wrench (mini at 16)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198096389539#!/compare/1469664000/1469750400

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28291875 ----- B/O was 15 keys

----------------------------------------------

Mini for the Wrench: Seller for 16, taking 16

http://imgur.com/a/tQnKf

----------------------------------------------

=======> Capped at 15 keys

======================================================

Sellers

- http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28384242 ----- 14 keys for a month, not very well bumped.

Summary

- Sales for 13, 15.

- Seller at 14 isn't very well bumped

Going with 13-15 keys. Criticism appreciated!