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Take 2
Sale 1: Sold for Mega Strike Taunt: Fresh Brewed Victory (42)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198028853818#!/compare/1495411200/1495497600
Mini Taunt: https://marketplace.tf/items/1113;5;u3010 Sold for ~42 keys on marketplace
Sale 2: Untraceable
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198155981570#!/compare/1495411200/1495497600
Sale 3: Untraceable
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198155981570#!/compare/1495670400/1495756800
Sale 4: Sold for Purple Energy Berlin Brain Bowl (65; in-date) + 2 keys --> 55 keys
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198142526418#!/compare/1495670400/1495756800
B/O was 55 http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29199408 (credits to Gent)
Sale 5: Untraceable. RL ID does not match
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062435183#!/compare/1493510400/1493596800
Sale 6: Sold together with 42 keys for Tesla Coil Merc's Mohawk (125) --> 83
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198058965125#!/compare/1492992000/1493337600
Sales at: 42, 55, 83. Unsold at 80 for 11 months. http://i.imgur.com/mVTo7Wc.png
Suggesting 42-55
Sale 7: Sold for duped Sulphurous Officer's Ushanka. Clean (clean one priced at 50); support the range.
https://backpack.tf/item/1649359430
https://backpack.tf/item/5774225097
It's not in the compare links so I included item histories. Seller confirmed it here: http://backpack.tf/suggestion/5928f9e2e338771e8c5c810e
Other recent sales:
Sold with ~5 keys in sweets for a Blizzardy Woodsman (outdated at 60) ----- Use on Woodsman
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087172601#!/compare/1497139200/1497225600
Sold with ~1 key in sweets for a Spellbound Glove (63) ----- 62 keys total
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198082245500#!/compare/1497225600/1497312000
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198182281603#!/compare/1497225600/1497312000
Green Confetti Rifleman (45) + SKS Rocket Jumper (sale for ~13 keys on SCM) + ~4 keys in sweets ----- 62 keys total
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198128817586#!/compare/1496880000/1496966400
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198254375254#!/compare/1496793600/1496966400
http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Specialized%20Killstreak%20Rocket%20Jumper
Green Confetti Boxcar (unpriced) ----- Use on Boxcar
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198122872975#!/compare/1497052800/1497139200
Duped Blizzardy Veil (mini at ~60)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198028104641#!/compare/1495756800/1495843200
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055847835#!/compare/1495152000/1495238400 ----- Veil sold for ~60 here
Another taunt sale
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198122872975#!/compare/1495756800/1495843200
The Fresh Brewed sale would need a more detailed mini, since it was "indate" at 63 at the time of the sale. Anyways, I would ignore that sale because we have other solid ones here.
I would give this a 55-62 range, which appears to be the common trading point. The duped Ushanka sale will most likely end up being too low.
Thanks for the extra sales, K1ng.
What do you think about a range that could be 45-60 with some rounding? That would also include Sale 1 and still be fairly small compared to some other ranges.
Well, you are free to do some research on both Fresh Brewed and duped Ushanka, but don't just round to 45-60 without having proof for that. I'm inclined to think that the taunt was closer to current price than 42 at the time of the sale, so would somehow support the low-end in a 55-62 range. Anyways, I would avoid using taunt sales when there are other solid sales.
I thought rounding is recommended in the guidelines with unusuals? So 45-60 wouldn't be without proof. It would be 42-62 but rounding to 45-60. Would that make sense now, generally speaking.
But sure I will exclude the taunt sale if you are not fond of it. 55-60 should work then?
For unusuals below 100 keys, you shouldn't round to the nearest 5 keys, but to the nearest integer. Even if it was to the nearest 5, 42 would round to 40.
As I said above, taunt sales aren't reliable so we better not use them here. There are non-taunt sales for 55, 60, 62, 62. With a 55-62 range you would be ignoring the Ushanka sale (which should be lower than 50) and the sale for a Heart Kabuto shown here: http://backpack.tf/suggestion/5928f9e2e338771e8c5c810e (which would be around 67, countered by the unsolds on the Mohawk).