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Eerie Orbiting Fire Glengarry Bonnet
Let's think about who would pay 25 keys for this, much less 30. Late night suggesting really sucks.
Sale 1:
Sold with about 8 keys total for a Disco Beat Down Nanobalaclava.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198299673688#!/compare/1494633600/1494720000
Definitely low, but supports a drop.
Sale 2:
Sold with 6 keys for a Miami Nights Stout Shako and a Miami Nights Gym Rat.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198253940521#!/compare/1494547200/1494633600
I can't be arsed to find minis on both at the moment, it's probably around 21-23 keys in total.
Sale 3:
Sold with 4 keys for a Green Energy Counterfeit Billycock.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198083574816#!/compare/1494288000/1494374400
Would be approximately 24 keys.
Sale 4:
Whatever it was, it'd equal 18 keys.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198118282932#!/compare/1494028800/1494115200
Sale 5:
Sold with 5 keys for a duped Scorching Flames Coupe D'isaster.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112564673#!/compare/1493510400/1493596800
Mini:
Looks like it sold for 26 keys.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112564673#!/compare/1493596800/1493769600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198134981180#!/compare/1493683200/1493769600 - keys on the Elf Esteem, I'm guessing it was bought with that L'Inspecteur.
I'll call this sale 21 keys.
Sale 6:
Sold with a Steaming Bone Dome for a Nuts n' Bolts Team Captain.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119662522#!/compare/1493424000/1493510400
This would be bulky in a sense. Not gonna use here.
Sale 7:
Sold for a Disco Beat Down Helmet Without a Home and ~6 keys in sweets.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198161349548#!/compare/1493078400/1493164800
Sale 8:
Looks like it sold at 20 keys.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198155954439#!/compare/1492560000/1492905600
https://backpack.tf/item/1211999438 - history
With the sales I can confirm that happened (DBD HWAH+sweets, GE Billy, and the Coupe), it should be alright to go with 21-25 keys with the rest of the sales I can't confirm being used as support.
should really find mini's for the hats that need them
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/28896116 - 20 key B/O in sale #7, but sold in a few hours at most so not capping
Sale #8 was indeed for 20, but also sold in a matter of hours, omitting that as well.
Minis for sale 2:
Rat: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198318728315#!/compare/1495584000/1495756800 - DP Hive + .5, ~11
Shako: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080250669#!/compare/1491868800/1491955200 - 20 pure
31 - 6 = 25, so supports high end.
Sales are 21, 24, 25, & 25, and moreover the sale at 21 took just a day. Drop is obviously needed, but I would definitely go with 24-25 here.