Sales 1, 2, 3 & 4:

Sold for $14.99, $13.49, $13, and $12.99 on Marketplace.tf

https://marketplace.tf/items/1117;5;u3008

14.99/1.97 = ~7.61

13.49/1.97 = ~6.85

13/1.97 = ~6.6

12.99/1.97 = ~6.59

https://i.imgur.com/jig9BwH.png - B/O of 6 for either the $13.49 or $13 sale, couldn’t tell which one was which.

X = 7.5

X = 6.5

X = 6 (Capped by B/O)

And another sale at either 6.5 or 7.

Sale 5:

Sold for 5 keys + some ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198146326272#!/compare/1522454400/1522540800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067306890#!/compare/1522368000/1522540800

X = 5

Sale 6:

Sold for 5 keys (Buyer’s compare link)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198386441509#!/compare/1522454400/1522540800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067663328#!/compare/1522454400/1522540800

Bot.tf confirms: https://i.imgur.com/a0nnhhh.png

X = 5

Sales 7, 8, 9, 10 & 11:

5 more bot.tf sales at 5 keys

https://i.imgur.com/a0nnhhh.png

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198308819102#!/compare/1524096000/1524182400

https://backpack.tf/item/5967335549 - untraceable, buyer is another bot, most likely another trade between the two

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198386441509#!/compare/1522454400/1522540800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198263342776#!/compare/1522454400/1522540800

https://backpack.tf/item/3389746051 - untraceable, but seller sold another one for 5 keys on the same day (See sale 6)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198386441509#!/compare/1522368000/1522454400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198153511702#!/compare/1522368000/1522454400

https://backpack.tf/item/3645912518 - untraceable

Could not find the other two.

X = 5 (5x)

Sale 12:

Quicksold for 4 keys + ~0.5 keys in metal/items

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198214373981#!/compare/1522022400/1522540800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198146326272#!/compare/1522454400/1522540800

X = 4.5

Sale 13:

Sold with some keys for Smoking Pyro’s Boron Beanie

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198168625615#!/compare/1522800000/1522886400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198288202783#!/compare/1522800000/1522886400

Should either be used on the Beanie or shouldn’t be used at all.

Sale 14:

Sold for Strange C.A.P.P.E.R.

No outpost

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198288202783#!/compare/1523232000/1523404800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198201450701#!/compare/1523318400/1523404800

C.A.P.P.E.R. is priced at 7, with quickbuyers for a fair bit higher. There’s a good chance this sale is gonna be a large outlier. Excluding.

Sellers:

6 keys:

https://i.imgur.com/KxPHpxM.png

https://backpack.tf/item/3389746051

https://i.imgur.com/lNgFrvb.png - 24 days

https://backpack.tf/item/2889960344

https://i.imgur.com/MoRTpS8.png

https://backpack.tf/item/5967335549

9 keys:

https://i.imgur.com/IK5x4uX.png

https://backpack.tf/item/3161457684

15 keys:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29623548

16 keys:

https://i.imgur.com/uVcExzt.png

https://backpack.tf/item/2745906032

https://backpack.tf/item/5163086926

https://backpack.tf/item/4155423847

https://backpack.tf/item/5322497163

https://i.imgur.com/pk2FSap.png

https://backpack.tf/item/2796574322

Sales at:

4.5

5 (7x)

6

6.5

7.5

And another sale at either 6.5 or 7.

Given that the only sale at 4.5 sold in a very short amount of time, and how close quickbuyers are to paying 4.5, it should be fine to call it an outlier. Excluding 4.5.

Second seller at 6 keys is 24 days old, excluding sales higher than 6.

Going with 5-6.