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Using last month.
Sale 1:
Sold for 3 keys + 8 ref
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198837007652#!/compare/1558483200/1558569600
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198822352269#!/compare/1558483200/1558569600
https://backpack.tf/item/6933856659
https://i.imgur.com/EbRs9sJ.png - bot.tf confirms
X = 3
Sale 2:
Sold for 2 keys + Strange Wrench skin (~0.5)
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198822352269#!/compare/1558483200/1558569600
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198333513882#!/compare/1557273600/1558569600
https://backpack.tf/item/3540134802
No sales on SCM on the wrench despite what the site says, but the paint goes for a little less than half a key
https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Strange%20Polar%20Surprise%20War%20Paint%20%28Battle%20Scarred%29
X = 2.5
Sale 3:
Sold for 2 keys + half a key in metal (2nd key on buyer’s end)
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198260747931#!/compare/1559001600/1559088000
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198857791788#!/compare/1559001600/1559174400
https://backpack.tf/item/6933856659
X = 2.5
Sale 4:
Sold to a bot for 2 keys + 26 ref
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198141832563#!/compare/1559606400/1559692800
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198323565601#!/compare/1559606400/1559692800
https://backpack.tf/item/4821398694
X = 2.5
Sale 5:
Sold to a bot for 2 keys + 32 ref
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198857791788#!/compare/1559174400/1559433600
BUyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198837007652#!/compare/1559347200/1559433600
https://backpack.tf/item/6933856659
https://i.imgur.com/EbRs9sJ.png - bot.tf confirms
X = 2.5
Sale 6:
Sold to a bot for 2 keys + 21 ref
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198141832563#!/compare/1559606400/1559692800
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198335791307#!/compare/1559606400/1559692800
https://backpack.tf/item/5484542739
https://i.imgur.com/EbRs9sJ.png
X = 2.5
Sale 7:
Sold to a bot for 2 keys + 30 ref
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198174717043#!/compare/1557532800/1558051200
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198837007652#!/compare/1557964800/1558051200
https://backpack.tf/item/3540134802
X = 2.5
Sale 8:
Sold for Double-spelled Strange Spec. KS Loch n Load
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198822352269#!/compare/1558483200/1558569600
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198260747931#!/compare/1546992000/1558569600
https://backpack.tf/item/6933856659
https://i.imgur.com/qPHHeuD.png
Shouldn’t affect the range. Seller at 3, so it can’t be higher than 3. Will either fall into the range or be countered by buyers.
Other Sales:
https://backpack.tf/item/6933856659 (#1-3)
https://backpack.tf/item/6571117952 (#4)
https://backpack.tf/item/6481055242 (#5-7, everything else was gambled)
https://backpack.tf/item/6394543063 (#8-10, everything else was gambled)
https://backpack.tf/item/5967335549 (#11 & #12)
https://backpack.tf/item/4452846507 (#13 & #14)
https://backpack.tf/item/3501111515 (#15)
https://backpack.tf/item/3397073529 (#16, other untraceable sales/likely gambling excluded)
https://backpack.tf/item/3060925087 (#17 & #18, the rest were gambled/involved a scammer)
https://backpack.tf/item/3030321211 (#19, the rest were gambled/marketplace)
https://backpack.tf/item/2845016115 (#20, the rest were gambled)
https://backpack.tf/item/2723690152 (#21-23)
https://backpack.tf/item/3554344423 - bitskins
https://backpack.tf/item/6613621508 - gambled/scammer involved
https://backpack.tf/item/3281116279 - scammers and bitskins
https://backpack.tf/item/2796178728 - scammers/gambling/scrap/tradeit
#1
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086355525#!/compare/1558051200/1558137600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198323565601#!/compare/1558137600/1558310400
Not listed on bot.tf
Next in history is the bot owner.
#2
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198089253101#!/compare/1558310400/1558396800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198033661509#!/compare/1558310400/1558396800
#3
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198873165470#!/compare/1558483200/1558656000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198837007652#!/compare/1558483200/1558569600
Not listed on bot.tf
#4
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198058051044#!/compare/1557619200/1557705600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198210964421#!/compare/1554768000/1558310400
#5
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1557014400/1557100800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088822281#!/compare/1557014400/1557100800
Not listed on bot.tf
#6
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088822281#!/compare/1557014400/1557100800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198323565601#!/compare/1557014400/1557100800
https://i.imgur.com/EbRs9sJ.png - labelled as 2 keys + 29 ref
#7
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198089253101#!/compare/1557532800/1557619200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198134546405#!/compare/1557532800/1557619200
#8
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198027152204#!/compare/1557705600/1557792000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1557705600/1557792000
#9
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1558656000/1558742400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198208582767#!/compare/1558656000/1558742400
#10
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079363927#!/compare/1559347200/1559433600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1559433600/1559520000
#11
Untraceable, only 2 keys match
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198873165470#!/compare/1557273600/1557360000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198340634356#!/compare/1557273600/1557360000
https://i.imgur.com/EbRs9sJ.png - labelled as 2 keys + 32 ref
The ref probably appears on the buyer’s end, but without individually checking all the ref, I can’t be sure, and it’s not worth going through all of that when it isn’t going to affect the range anyways.
#12
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198340634356#!/compare/1558742400/1558828800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198089241763#!/compare/1558828800/1559001600
https://i.imgur.com/EbRs9sJ.png - labelled as 3 keys + 8 ref
#13
Untraceable/bulk
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198367524768#!/compare/1557187200/1557273600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198901899262#!/compare/1557187200/1557273600
#14
Untraceable, only 2 keys + 12 ref match
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198837007652#!/compare/1558396800/1558483200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198822352269#!/compare/1558396800/1558483200
#15
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198229362368#!/compare/1559088000/1559174400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198334598690#!/compare/1559088000/1559174400
https://i.imgur.com/EbRs9sJ.png - labelled as a 3 key + 6 ref purchase
#16
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198335791307#!/compare/1558137600/1558224000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115440282#!/compare/1558137600/1558224000
https://i.imgur.com/EbRs9sJ.png - labelled as a 3 key + 12 ref sale
#17
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198404491245#!/compare/1557273600/1557360000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198340634356#!/compare/1557273600/1557360000
https://i.imgur.com/EbRs9sJ.png - Labelled as a 2 key + 32 ref purchase
#18
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198340634356#!/compare/1558742400/1558828800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049322925#!/compare/1558656000/1558742400
https://i.imgur.com/EbRs9sJ.png - labelled as 3 keys + 8 ref
#19
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198963003558#!/compare/1558742400/1558915200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198837007652#!/compare/1558656000/1558742400
#20
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097271466#!/compare/1557014400/1557100800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197984373540#!/compare/1556841600/1557187200
I don’t doubt that it sold for 3 keys, but I can’t prove it. Doesn’t affect the range anyways.
#21
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198873165470#!/compare/1557273600/1557360000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198837007652#!/compare/1557273600/1557360000
#22
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198039558598#!/compare/1557619200/1557705600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198039558598#!/compare/1557187200/1557619200
#23
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1557792000/1557878400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198133583988#!/compare/1463616000/1557878400
Sellers:
https://i.imgur.com/W0YI2NW.png
https://i.imgur.com/NIy3C6u.png
https://i.imgur.com/4Xj6f2v.png
https://backpack.tf/item/3060925087 - ~2.9 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/6394543063 - ~3 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/3501111515 - 3 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/2966536074 - 3 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/6933856659 - ~3.1 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/5967335549 - ~3.2 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/5484542739 - ~3.25 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/2889960344 - 4 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/2796574322 - 5 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/5322497163 - ~5.15 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/5163086926 - ~5.15 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/4155423847 - ~5.15 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/2745906032 - ~5.15 keys
Sales at:
2.5 (6x)
3
Proof for 3 looks weak, but that’s only because gamblers are usually the ones buying for 3 keys, and it makes it hard to trace on their end, so you’d have to luck out and hope the bot that sold for 3 didn’t spend any of the keys/metal on the same day. Realistically, there are about 4 sales at ~3 in the last month.
2.5 is waaaaaay too common to be excluded by buyers. Keeping 2.5
Going with 2.5-3.