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(All Credits to Erik)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060180344#!/compare/1523404800/1523491200
Scorching El Jefe - Recently priced at 260
Purple Confetti Exquisite Rack - 60 (Probably too high at 70 considering 4 month unsold and the rest of the unsold.
Purple Confetti Soldier's Stash - Recently priced at 48
Final price = 368 keys.
Reselling it for 450.
Mini for the rack - https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198105583712#!/compare/1520035200/1520121600 (Sold for 59 keys pure) Rounding up.
B/O on outpost says http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29615366 - 430-450 pure but it was listed on backpack for 450 pure.
Taking 370 keys for this sale
Second sale -
Given seller was willing to take 450 pure, im going to cap second sale at 450
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198155066949#!/compare/1523491200/1523577600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198139171368#!/compare/1523491200/1523577600
Sold for a Dead Presidents Soldered Sensei (13) + Purple Confetti Rifleman (40) + GE Veil (205) + Frostbite Tin Topi (27) + Sunbeams Master's Yellow Belt (~130) + Death at Dusk War Pig (140) = ~555 keys, which I suppose could be rounded to ~550 keys
Mini's:
Dead Presidents Soldered Sensei (13)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080575048#!/compare/1521936000/1522195200
https://gyazo.com/1d2a89ad279ddbd9bd6d0087b2477383
Multiple sales around ~13-14 keys, though the majority (2) is at 13 keys. Taking 13 keys.
Purple Confetti Rifleman = 40 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043989712#!/compare/1524096000/1524441600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198168544522#!/compare/1524182400/1524268800
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29624584 - B/O 40 keys
Sold for a Circling Hearts Towering Pillar of Hats.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198192602363#!/compare/1524268800/1524355200
Tower sold here for a Stormy Dapper + 9 keys. Dapper has sellers around 33-34 keys so taking 40 keys for the Rifleman seems fine.
DUPED Green Energy Veil = 205 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050062763#!/compare/1518652800/1518739200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198155066949#!/compare/1518652800/1518739200
Sold for a Death at Dusk Human Cannonball (65) + Haunted Ghosts Cannonball (51) + duped Harvest Moon Brain Bucket (75) + Bubbling Samur Eye (10) + 2 keys in sweets = 203 keys. Rounding to 205 keys.
Micro for Death at Dusk Human Cannonball = 65 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062852818#!/compare/1521590400/1521849600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050062763#!/compare/1521763200/1521849600
Sold along roughly 7 keys mixed for a Scorching Full Metal Drill Hat (72) = ~65 keys.
Drill hat = https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5af0754acf6c7575bf6641c3
DUPED Harvest Moon Brain Bucket micro = 75 keys.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198142619531#!/compare/1513900800/1513987200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198168863803#!/compare/1513900800/1513987200
Gonna take a risk here and put a mini that's 5 months old. No other valid sales on this hat. Bought for a PE Attendant (~55) + ~3 keys mixed = ~74, rounding to 75 keys.
https://marketplace.tf/items/213;5;u10
Attendant has 3 sales here ranging 45 - 63 keys, so taking the average of roughly ~55 keys.
https://gyazo.com/ac8fa7eb8319c98befd05b24a44ac652
Taking 16 keys for the Tavish, based on a matured listing.
Frostbite Tin Topi = 27 keys
https://gyazo.com/27a417d8ae8145e7ae8606a202a33d6d
Not really any proper mini on this hat, so taking current (matured) listing.
Sunbeams Master's Yellow Belt = ~130 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119634686#!/compare/1518739200/1518825600 - sold for 126 keys, took a while.
https://gyazo.com/3c82e535828233055df507ee0606a586 - Sale at 124 keys and at 130 keys.
Looking at the current market, I'm going with 130 keys. Arguably not the best mini around apparently this isn't really being traded a lot.
Mini for Death at Dusk Warpig = 140 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198123271612#!/compare/1521590400/1521676800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198155066949#!/compare/1521590400/1521676800
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29513995 - B/O 150 keys
Sold for a RA Fruit Shoot (41) + Sunbeams Hive Minder (46) + Time Warp Samur-Eye (50) = ~140 keys
https://gyazo.com/1a6c8ebe11f6ed3ee29a1759f8a6e9f3
Taking 46 keys.
Samur-Eye: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5af0818744325a49ae50941b
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074192315#!/compare/1524441600/1524700800
This trade also supports ~140 on the Warpig, given how the unusual weapon sold for about 40 earlier.
Here:https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198136702159#!/compare/1522281600/1522368000
Dead Presidents Soldered Sensei (13) + Purple Confetti Rifleman (40) + GE Veil (205) + Frostbite Tin Topi (27) + Sunbeams Master's Yellow Belt (~130) + Death at Dusk War Pig (140) = ~555 keys, which I suppose could be rounded to ~550 keys (All Credits to Erik)
All in all, taking 370-450 keys.
There has been a lot of discussion about this hat as is evidenced by the recent suggestion stream on it. I've discussed with the other moderators here.
I have a problem with the high end here - it utilizes a 1-day-old BO and the sale itself is much higher. Usually, sales that far over a BO end up outliers, and now, the sale is also ~200 keys above the other sale we have here. There'd be a 100 key deficit on that sale just because of the BO, and that is the only thing that keeps these sales acceptably close together. With the other BO also being at 430, it should be evident that 550 as such is an outlier.
This is exactly why one should not only look at the BO, but also at what the value of the sale would have been if it wasn't for the buyout - it can be crucial for outlier reasoning.
With this info I'd update this to 370 - the other sale supports the fact that a raise is needed, but given the circumstances it would end up an outlier here.