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Sale 1:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198339306067#!/compare/1524614400/1524700800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198056531196#!/compare/1524614400/1524700800

Sold with 72 Square Dance(11) + Miami Cards + ~8.5 keys in sweets for Scorching Phantom

Used on Phantom

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Sale 2:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198056531196#!/compare/1524700800/1524787200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198411578374#!/compare/1524614400/1524873600

Sold on SCM

https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Unusual%20Specialized%20Killstreak%20Thirst%20Blood

Sold for ~305 CAD, comes out to ~96 keys

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Sale 3:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198304138933#!/compare/1528848000/1528934400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198004386287#!/compare/1528848000/1528934400

Keys, untraceable.

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Sale 4:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198126500690#!/compare/1524268800/1527897600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198089253101#!/compare/1527811200/1527897600

Sold for Insomnia Pullover(87.5)

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Sale 5:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198089253101#!/compare/1528156800/1528243200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069501011#!/compare/1527984000/1528243200

Sold for 3 unusual weapons

Unable to mini Crossbow.

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Sale 6:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069501011#!/compare/1528243200/1528329600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198104805761#!/compare/1528156800/1528243200

Gonna use there.

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Sale 7:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198104805761#!/compare/1528243200/1528329600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198232041512#!/compare/1528243200/1528329600

Looks like bulk.

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Sale 8:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198413496095#!/compare/1524787200/1524873600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066177907#!/compare/1524528000/1524873600

Use there.

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Sale 9:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066177907#!/compare/1524960000/1525046400

Bulk.

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Sale 10:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114402400#!/compare/1527206400/1527292800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198105760264#!/compare/1526947200/1527292800

Sold with HG Stout for Beams Reggae.

Seems high/ unlikely, not using.

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Sale 11:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198105760264#!/compare/1527292800/1527379200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198129205357#!/compare/1527292800/1527379200

QS? sold for keys

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Sale 12:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198129205357#!/compare/1529193600/1529280000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198321019586#!/compare/1529193600/1529280000

Sold for Scorching Bonk Helm + 4 keys

Helm Mini:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198340177572#!/compare/1528934400/1529020800

Sold for 63 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198340177572#!/compare/1528070400/1528243200

Sold for 62 keys

https://marketplace.tf/items/106;5;u14

Sold for 130 USD

Keys at 1.98 USD

Total is ~66 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198192602363#!/compare/1529193600/1529280000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198024925599#!/compare/1529280000/1529366400

Sold for 60 keys.

Considering sales hover very close to Buy orders, taking 60 - 66 keys. Average of 63 keys

Total is 67 keys.

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Sale 13:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198321019586#!/compare/1529280000/1529366400

Sold for 68 keys.

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Sale 14:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198166314775#!/compare/1529280000/1529366400

Using there.

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Sale 15:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198030343929#!/compare/1524441600/1524528000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119597043#!/compare/1524441600/1524528000

Sold with ~9.5 keys in sweets + spelled Red Socks for MG Yellow Belt(89.5)

Used to update the Yellow Belt. Can't use.

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Sale 16:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198030343929#!/compare/1524787200/1524873600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079110654#!/compare/1524873600/1524960000

Sold for 73 keys.

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Sale 17:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079110654#!/compare/1525564800/1525737600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119634686#!/compare/1525478400/1525564800

Keys, maybe QS?

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Sale 18:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119634686#!/compare/1527379200/1527465600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198021055079#!/compare/1527379200/1527465600

Keys. Probably QS?

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Sale 19:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043936328#!/compare/1524182400/1524268800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198083961797#!/compare/1524268800/1524441600

Sold for D@D Toque + HG Hedge + Stormy Hoodie + Ether Trail Sombrero(23)

Hoodie Mini:

https://marketplace.tf/items/377;5;u29

Sold for 35.99 USD

Keys at 1.97 USD

Total is 18.27 keys

Sellers down to 14, taking average of 16 keys.

Hedge Mini:

https://marketplace.tf/items/30978;5;u8

Sales at 37.25 & 50 USD

Total are ~19 & 25.51 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045883624#!/compare/1527120000/1527206400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198799757343#!/compare/1527120000/1527206400

Sold for PE Tsarboosh

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197962841151#!/compare/1529193600/1529280000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198144862452#!/compare/1529193600/1529280000

Tsar boosh sold here for unusual weapon, which QS for 20, taking that

Considering new sellers for 25 and 24, taking 19 - 25 keys (rounding MP sale down), average of 22.

Toque Mini:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197996095002#!/compare/1527120000/1527206400

Sold for 30 keys

https://marketplace.tf/items/97;5;u90

Sold for 62.56 & 78.86 USD

Keys at 1.93 & 1.94

Totals are

32.41 & 40.65 keys

Taking 30 -32 keys, average of 31.

Total is 16 + 23 + 31 + 22 = 92 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29619281

B/O of 90 keys.

Capping

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Sale 20:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198083961797#!/compare/1524528000/1524614400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198100636531#!/compare/1524441600/1524528000

Sold with 13 keys for Scorching Thirst Blood

Scorching Mini:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198386441509#!/compare/1527465600/1527552000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198440158806#!/compare/1527552000/1527638400

Sold for CH Caribou(56) + Aussie Sticky(26)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043697641#!/compare/1528588800/1528675200

Sold for 70 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198344491537#!/compare/1526342400/1526428800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198089630547#!/compare/1526342400/1526428800

Sold for 69 keys

Seller currently at 75, taking 70 flat.

Total is 57 keys.

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Sale 21:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198100636531#!/compare/1524441600/1524528000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044684270#!/compare/1524441600/1524528000

Sold for 65 keys

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Sale 22:

https://marketplace.tf/items/30479;5;u13

Sold for 179.99 USD

Keys at 1.96 USD

Total is 91.83 keys

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NOTE: Sale 1 & 2 are for Spec KS Thirst Bloods, so taking those sales out.

Total sales @:

57, 65, 67, 68, 73, 87.5, 90, 91.83

https://i.imgur.com/fpv7Hoz.jpg

Sellers down to 80 keys

Buyers up to 70*

*= not counting the buyer for 75, as he wants the hat specifically, with an exact amount of keys.

Withe sellers at 80(x2) and 85, with 85 unsold for close to a month, it suggests that even with higher sales, those must have been outliers.

This is compunded by the fact that the Speck KS sold for ~96, and was minid for 76 in the suggestion for the Phantom.

Let's keep it conservative for now, and take 73 - 87 keys.

AS I type this, another sale:

Sale 23:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198232041512#!/compare/1529452800/1529539200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198092383109#!/compare/1529452800/1529539200

Sold for 75 pure.

Jarool's Part:

sold mine for 85 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198021055079#!/compare/1530662400/1530748800

Eh if it sold to a buyer Im not convinced it should be included. the 75 sale belongs to one of the 80 sellers and the other 80 seller sold to a bot. Since the market has calmed down, one sold for 85 keys as displayed below.

Foamy's Part:

On the low sales:

- Sale 12 - the bonk mini includes sales below buyers - that's probably why that seems so low

- Sale 13 quicksold below buy orders

- Sale 20 and 21 are someone adding for a downgrade (?) and it being instantly quicksold

The phantom sale counted this at 76 when it was used there - the other sale is 10 keys higher, so that supports the higher values here

I think all in all, the suggestion was made as a snapshot of a very poor market on this hat. Whereas I guess a drop is needed here, I'd do so more conservatively here at 73-88.