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Green Energy Antarctic Eyewear
Sales on marketplace.tf: $130, $149.99, $147.89
https://marketplace.tf/items/30977;5;u9
$130 / 1.95 = ~67 keys
$149.99 / 1.95 = ~77 keys
$147.89 / 1.95 = ~75 keys
Sale 1: Sold w/ Bubbling Killer Exclusive for Duped Burning Flames Milkman + ~9 keys in sweets
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091786731#!/compare/1526342400/1526428800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086793593#!/compare/1526342400/1526428800
Mini on KE: $47.37
https://marketplace.tf/items/538;5;u34
$47.37 / 1.95 = ~24 keys
Not going to use sales that are higher than this because there's multiple sellers at 25 keys for the KE.
Mini on duped milkman: Sold w/ 10 keys pure + vivid plasma tyrantium + haunted ghosts batter’s helm for clean scorching flames tosslecap (indate at 143 keys)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198014584237#!/compare/1525737600/1525824000
Bit of a complex sale, but the milkman was the major part of the deal so it should be okay to use
Micro for batter’s: 27 keys pure
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198313538268#!/compare/1526947200/1527033600
Taking 27 keys for micro
Micro for tyrantium: N&B Brass Bucket + Orbiting Planets Lucky Shot
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198153806405#!/compare/1529107200/1529280000
Can't find mini for duped lucky shot so I'm taking lowest seller at 13 keys and taking 10 keys for Brass
Taking 23 keys for micro
143 - 27 - 23 - 10 = 83
Rounding to 85
Taking 85 keys for mini on milkman
85 + 9 - 24 = 70 keys
Taking 70 keys for sale
Sale 2: Sold w/ 2 keys pure for Burning Flames Noble Nickel Amassment of Hats (indate at 140 but seller unsold at 100 keys for 12 days so taking 100-140 range)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086793593#!/compare/1526428800/1526515200
118 keys for sale
Rounding to 120
Taking 120 keys
Sale 3: Sold w/ 24 keys pure for circling heart muffs (indate at 118 keys)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198106323296#!/compare/1526688000/1526860800
118 - 24 = 94
Taking 94 keys for sale
Sale 4: Molten Mallard Federal Casemaker + 18 Keys
pure
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198058392572#!/compare/1524873600/1524960000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198013404226#!/compare/1524787200/1524873600
Mini for casemaker: Sold w/ Strange Gift Bringer (~2k) for 56 keys in Australiums
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198309178418#!/compare/1526169600/1526256000
Taking 54 keys for mini
54 + 18 = 72 keys
Taking 72 keys
Sale 5: Sold w/ 1 key in items for Neutron Star HKC
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095433550#!/compare/1527984000/1528329600
mini for HKC: $170
https://marketplace.tf/items/30177;5;u107/Burning%20Flames%20Hong%20Kong%20Cone
$170 / 1.95 = 87 keys
87 - 1 = 86
Taking 86 keys
Sale 6: 1:1’d for Sunbeams Head Hedge
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198180054301#!/compare/1526774400/1526860800
Mini for hedge: 46 keys
https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5b2741e644325a62c0240c6b
The suggestion has a lot of criticism on it so I'm not confident it's 100% correct but I'm going to use it.
Taking 46 keys
Sale 7: 1:1’d Spellbound Bot Dogger
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198089675316#!/compare/1525737600/1525824000
Mini for dogger: Sold Scorching Flames Tossle (indate at 143) + 1 key in items
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072439676#!/compare/1528070400/1528243200
143 + 1 = 144
Taking 144 keys
Taking 144 for mini and sale
There's a suggestion for the bot dogger, but it's missing sales so i feel it's better just to use one recent sale
Sale 8: Sold w/ 1 key in items for Green Energy Milkman + Haunted Ghosts Hat of Cards
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069813252#!/compare/1525305600/1525392000
Mini for HoC: 32 keys pure
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057897812#!/compare/1525737600/1525910400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198017911615#!/compare/1525824000/1525910400
Mini for milkman: $72 (37k)
https://marketplace.tf/items/219;5;u9/Cloudy%20Moon%20Milkman
https://backpack.tf/item/398677223
32 + 37 = 69 - 1 = 68 keys
Sale 9: 1:1’d for the Ooze Hellmet
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198195731583#!/compare/1532044800/1532131200
Mini for Hellmet: DBD War Pig (indate at 74) + Strange Spelled Rocket which I'm gonna consider it to be 1 key
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198277847330#!/compare/1531526400/1531612800
Taking 75 keys for mini and sale
Sale 10: 50 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119149660#!/compare/1532131200/1532217600
Sold within 5 hours.
Sale 11: 60 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198110055031#!/compare/1532822400/1532908800
Sales we have are 46, 50, 60, 67, 68, 70, 72, 75 (x2), 77, 86, 94, 120, 144
Excluding 46 and 50 key sale as I consider them low outliers + 50 key sale sold within 5 hours and quickbuyers at 44 counter it
Excluding 120 and 144 as they are high outliers
Sales left now are 60, 67, 68, 70, 75 (x2), 77, 86, 94
Excluding 75, 77, 86, and 94 due to unsold at 75
Taking range 60-70
Sales 67 and 68 support range. Seller at 61 supports range
If I made a mistake or missed any sales, please feel free to tell me!
Forgot to include 72 in the summary. Let's just say I rounded it down to 70
You're excluding way too many high sales for no reason here. 60-77 doesn't seem farfetched for this.
I excluded 75 and 77 because there was a seller unsold at 75 for three months. You can see he had it listed for atleast two months from this tf2outpost trade and he's owned it since May in the item history. http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29659574
The seller is now "quickselling" at 60 keys