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Using last month.
The Sale:
Sold for $38 on marketplace.tf
https://marketplace.tf/items/30922;5;u3005
http://manicbot.me/keyprice/?at=2018-07-23
https://backpack.tf/item/6478918128 - No outpost
38/1.95 = ~19.49
X = 19
The only other sale I found that was worth noting was this one:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1533168000/1533254400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050487099#!/compare/1533168000/1533254400
Nothing matches here. Excluding.
Sellers:
15 keys:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/29741350
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198400649150
Excluding this seller, as they apparently have a pending report for paypal scamming, and they have a private profile.
Sale at 19.
Going with 19 flat.