Sales 1 & 2:

Sold for $10.99 & $5.26

https://marketplace.tf/items/1117;5;u3001

https://backpack.tf/item/2791165327 - no outpost

Can’t find the other history

http://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2018-08-30 - $10.99 / $1.88 = 5.85 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2018-09-11 - $5.26 / $1.87 = 2.81 keys

X = 6

X = 3

Sale 3:

Sold for 5 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097271466#!/compare/1535241600/1535328000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093662195#!/compare/1461801600/1535846400

https://backpack.tf/item/6268572636

X = 5

Sale 4:

Sold for 4 keys + 14 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305676157#!/compare/1534723200/1534809600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107223339#!/compare/1534809600/1536883200

https://backpack.tf/item/6808624762

https://i.imgur.com/gjd8ljm.png

X = 4.5

Sale 5:

Sold for 4 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1536105600/1536192000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198838913685#!/compare/1536019200/1536192000

https://backpack.tf/item/2692543617

X = 4

Sale 6:

Sold to a quickbuyer for 3 keys + ~0.5 keys in metal

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198268423957#!/compare/1536537600/1536624000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044684270#!/compare/1536537600/1536624000

https://backpack.tf/item/6783624093

X = 3.5

Sale 7:

Sold to a bot for 3 keys + 21 ref?

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198008741789#!/compare/1535760000/1536537600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198334598690#!/compare/1536019200/1536105600

https://backpack.tf/item/2800322152

https://i.imgur.com/gjd8ljm.png

Only the 21 ref matches. However, given that it’s the exact amount of metal, I doubt bot.tf is wrong here.

X = 3.5

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/6268150027 (#1-3)

https://backpack.tf/item/5975402176 (#4)

https://backpack.tf/item/4491315415 (#5)

https://backpack.tf/item/4414680251 (#6)

https://backpack.tf/item/4318699940 (#7)

https://backpack.tf/item/4122799182 (#8 & #9)

https://backpack.tf/item/3483980624 (#10)

https://backpack.tf/item/2948409657 (#11)

https://backpack.tf/item/2791165327 (#12)

https://backpack.tf/item/3800435224 - Scammers

https://backpack.tf/item/3628352701 - Tradeit.gg

https://backpack.tf/item/2695373627 - Marketplace.tf

https://backpack.tf/item/3016834750 - Unusualified, no sales

https://backpack.tf/item/2788915057 - Unusualified, no sales

#1

Bulk for Mallard Dread Hiding Hood

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063510973#!/compare/1534723200/1535500800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055622215#!/compare/1535414400/1535500800

#2

Bulk for unusual medigun

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055622215#!/compare/1535846400/1535932800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198424469290#!/compare/1535846400/1535932800

#3

Bulk for something

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198424469290#!/compare/1536105600/1536192000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198040280241#!/compare/1536019200/1536105600

#4

Bulk for something

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198158929273#!/compare/1535068800/1535241600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197994697258#!/compare/1534982400/1535068800

#5

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198434933076#!/compare/1535760000/1535846400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198334712990#!/compare/1535673600/1535760000

https://i.imgur.com/gjd8ljm.png - Labelled as 3 keys + 21 ref

#6

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198344190914#!/compare/1535241600/1535328000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198834884200#!/compare/1535241600/1535328000

#7

Sold for Voices Bill’s

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198336898193#!/compare/1536710400/1536796800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198348625599#!/compare/1536710400/1536796800

Couldn’t find a mini on the Bill’s.

#8

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198136977926#!/compare/1535241600/1535328000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198028020885#!/compare/1535241600/1535328000

#9

Bulk for Duped Vintage Alien Swarm Parasite

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198028020885#!/compare/1535241600/1535328000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198266400501#!/compare/1535068800/1535328000

#10

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198272038932#!/compare/1536364800/1536624000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198078178546#!/compare/1536278400/1536451200

#11

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198216924597#!/compare/1536537600/1536883200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198363395191#!/compare/1536537600/1536624000

#12

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198162797626#!/compare/1536278400/1536537600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198363395191#!/compare/1536451200/1536537600

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/g8sxnmH.png

https://i.imgur.com/eHxNz1W.png

https://backpack.tf/item/4414680251 - ~4.45 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/4318699940 - ~4.48 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/4491315415 - ~4.96 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/2791165327 - 5 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/2800322152 - 5 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/6268150027 - 5 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/6062507540 - 10 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/4303808556 - 30 keys

Sales at:

3

3.5 (2x)

4

4.5

5

6

3 is too low, excluding.

6 is too high due to other sellers. Excluding.

Going with 3.5-5.