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Using last month.
Sale 1:
Sold for 25 keys
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045174236#!/compare/1537142400/1537228800
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198037731984#!/compare/1535846400/1537142400
https://backpack.tf/item/3270431362
X = 25
Sale 2:
Sold for $39.98 on marketplace.tf
https://marketplace.tf/items/30570;5;u3006
http://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2018-10-13 - $39.98 / $1.77 = 22.59 keys
X = 23
Sale 3:
Sold to a bot for 14 keys + 2 ref?
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198098325034#!/compare/1537833600/1537920000
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198295122993#!/compare/1537833600/1537920000
https://backpack.tf/item/3554579317
https://i.imgur.com/ZV6vK2s.png
Only 11 keys and 2 ref match. Looks like the seller sold a key for ref, and the other 2 keys are untraceable. Should be fine to assume bot.tf is correct here.
X = 14
Other Sales:
https://backpack.tf/item/3554579317 (#1)
https://backpack.tf/item/6321417738 - marketplace
https://backpack.tf/item/3344260095 - marketplace
#1
SCM
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198382589541#!/compare/1538092800/1538179200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198064788088#!/compare/1538179200/1538265600
Sellers:
https://i.imgur.com/n208L2i.png
https://backpack.tf/item/3341301268 - 20 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/3269687729 - 24 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/3568349790 - 25 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/3554579317 - 28 keys
Sales at:
14
23
25
14 went to a bot, and doesn’t appear to be a common trading point. Excluding 14.
The seller at 20 is rather young, and hasn’t been bumped in a day. Excluding for now.
Going with 23-25.