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There's something off with this item's pricing. It's bp value is 12-15 keys, but one steam people are selling it for and average of about 16 keys on the Steam market. I think the price needs an update because then it would be more profitable to sell it for real money instead of trading it for pure ingame and then real money. If you look at it rn, the price on steam is 39.88 in the past 12 hours and 41.35 (us dollars) in the last 24 hours. That around 16 keys, yet ingame the sell average is 13.5 keys. I think there's a discrepancy here. Link to the item on bp: https://backpack.tf/stats/Unusual/Private%20Eye/Tradable/Craftable/33. As you can see, market trends don't line up with it's worth, so I think this needs to be fixed. I am not changing the price at all, but just converting it to tf2 currency correctly.
This doesn't contain any kind of proof, this isn't how this works. Please gather some proof for this to work and resuggest when you have it
The "average" you're seeing on the SCM is based on all effects, not orbiting fire alone. There are no need to make up discrepancies just because you own the hat.