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Updated mini
Here we go again.
Please comment if new sales occur!
5 sales
2 usable sales 1 pure 1 mixed
and a couple that are not usable but support range.
============================================================================================================
Sale 1
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062611321#!/compare/1545350400/1545609600 (Mentioned by Barracudda)
https://imgur.com/a/8VFSdKY
Seems impossible to mini.
==============================================================================
Sale 2: 390 in Unusuals
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198017534558#!/compare/1544659200/1544745600
Sunbeams Tundra Top + Purple Energy Shellmet + Strange Searing Plasma Private Eye + Smoking Head Warmer + Steaming Vintage Tyrolean + ~10 keys in random sweets + 22 keys + 64 Non-Craftable Tour of Duty Tickets
tundra top is within date :)
minis
--------------------------------
mini on pe shellmet
https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5c3579b3cf6c75065e5c993b
thanks, Bryan
~112.5 keys
mini for searing private eye
sale 1:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198137563438#!/compare/1544486400/1544572800
sold w/14 keys for an aces high kiss king(~21) + smoking brown bomber(~21)
buy orders more or less back up the price of the two
only other on classifieds is in a bot's backpack which hasn't sold since August
~42 - 14 = ~28 keys(fits into current price of 22-30)
mini on smoking head warmer
sale 1:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197964171516#!/compare/1543017600/1543104000
https://backpack.tf/classifieds?item=Head%20Warmer&quality=5&tradable=1&craftable=1&australium=-1&particle=35&killstreak_tier=0
highest buy order @14.2, multiple @13
sold w/ miami nights towering pillar (23) for a vivid kiss king (45)
buy orders for kiss king @27, no recent usable sales that I could find
~45 - 23 = ~22 keys
can safely(?) assume that the head warmer is still within the 19 key range
all other sales are unusable (too old/one of them is dragged through like 10 scammer alts)
throwing this out as there are no suitable sales, taking ~19 keys as pricing due to the prevalence of good buy orders
mini on steaming tyrolean
https://backpack.tf/stats/Unusual/Vintage%20Tyrolean/Tradable/Craftable/36
buy orders @10.53, can safely assume pricing is still correct.
hmm if only I had premium
~13 keys
--------------------------------
calculations for TOD tickets (using price values that were valid at the time of the trade)
19.88 * 64 = 1272.32
1272.32 / 45(price of keys at the time) = ~28.27
140 + 112.5 + 28.27 + 28 + 22+ 19 + 13 + ~10 in sweets = 372.77
rounding to {370 keys} for cleanness
========================================================
Sale 3:(being repriced at 370)
Sold for Frostbite KE + Laugh Taunt
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198269210627#!/compare/1545091200/1545177600
https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5c30570ccf6c75199e2de455 (KE being repriced at 370)
=================================
Sale 4: 352 pure rounding to 350 for neatness.
https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5bfb87a744325a7fba651931
one @352 keys
(Thanks, Zurfe)
==========================================================
Sale 5: (unable to mini)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094964657#!/compare/1545350400/1545436800
1:1 for a duped Stormy 13th Hour Brown Bomber.
(Thanks Master Throne Crimson)
============================================================
This leaves us with a sale at 370 and 350 pure and a bunch of unpricable sales. 350-370 range.
The KE suggestion was closed and is now using this sale as its low end. I was gonna say that that requires you to redo this at 350 flat since one of the two sales in your summary became invalid, but it seems that there is actually another sale at 370 to back up that data point.
The bomber sale is probably lower than this, but without a solid mini that's gonna be hard to incorporate. By my estimates it'd end up an outlier.