Sale 1:

Sold for Disco Beat Down Killer Exclusive (~122.5) + 182 keys (Buyer’s end)

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y9WQZVNY - B/O of 300

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050518375#!/compare/1556409600/1556496000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095234087#!/compare/1556409600/1556496000

https://backpack.tf/item/843115288

X = 300 (Capped by B/O)

Sale 2:

Sold in ~2 days for 219 keys (Buyer’s end)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1551830400/1551916800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050518375#!/compare/1551830400/1551916800

https://backpack.tf/item/6688205188

Rounding to 220.

X = 220

Sale 3:

Sold for Duped Stare From Beyond Tyrantium (48.5, based off dupe) + Secret Topi + Green Energy Tundra (77) + Green Energy Warhood (Suggestion at 28.5) + Spec. KS Aus Axtinguisher (~6) + ~28 keys in pure/items

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MGO12E7Y - B/O of 215

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043662502#!/compare/1557705600/1557792000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198252999692#!/compare/1557705600/1557792000

https://backpack.tf/item/6412775626 (everything else in history is marketplace/gambled)

Without the topi, the value comes down to 188. The topi would have to be less than 27 keys for this to affect the price, but that’s not happening.

X = 215 (Capped by B/O)

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/538;5;u10

$450 on March 17th, $350 on April 25th

https://backpack.tf/item/6412775626 - most likely April 25th here

https://backpack.tf/item/3331283833 - march 17th, no b/o

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-03-17 - $450 / $1.8 = 250.00 keys

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-04-25 - $350 / $1.79 = 195.53 keys, rounding to 195

X = 250

X = 195

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/6688205188 (#1)

https://backpack.tf/item/3561519172 - marketplace

#1

Untraceable, only 90 keys match

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198198869057#!/compare/1551312000/1551744000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1551657600/1551744000

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/xxaWkHx.png

https://backpack.tf/item/6412775626 - 260 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/3331283833 - 300 keys

Sales at:

195

215

220

250

300

195 appears to have sold before being scanned in the marketplace bot’s inventory. Excluding due to how quick it sold.

300 looks like an outlier, excluding 300.

220 sold in a short amount of time, but given the 2 sales for cheaper, and the difference in the market between when it sold for that amount and now (buyers were around 200 keys back then), 220 shouldn’t be excluded, neither should 215.

Going with 215-250.

https://marketplace.tf/items/538;5;u10

Sold for $400 on marketplace

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2019-06-09 - $400 / $1.82 = 219.78 keys

X = 220