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Thanks for advice from Torb!
Bought for 85 Keys today.
https://imgur.com/a/DONPgXQ
https://imgur.com/a/PntfsOG
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069137737#!/compare/1565481600/1565568000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198129552058#!/compare/1565395200/1565481600
Of the 7 existing versions of this hat, the one shown in the trades above is the only one moving recently. Here's a run down of all it's recent trades.
---- Older Flaming Lantern Le Party Phantom Trades ----
---- July 23rd ----
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198129552058#!/compare/1563753600/1563840000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198035780190#!/compare/1563753600/1563840000
Used in a large mix of items to buy an Abduction Captain Space Mann from Ash by Ohaimark. Not usable (I believe).
---- June 25th ----
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198035780190#!/compare/1561248000/1561593600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068732040#!/compare/1561334400/1561420800
Cannot tell how much it was bought for, maybe it was a gift? (Hope I'm not being stupid here :P)
---- June 10th ----
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068732040#!/compare/1560038400/1560124800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198129995083#!/compare/1559952000/1560124800
It appears as though this was also used in a large mix of items by Zeus in exchange for No Aim No Gain's It's A Secret To Everybody Modest Pile of Hat. I assume this too is unusable.
---- June 1st ----
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198158206236#!/compare/1559260800/1559347200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198129995083#!/compare/1559260800/1559347200
Bought from My Pp Hard with Zeus' Time Warp Birdcage (37 Keys) + Purple Energy A Hat to Kill For. Time Warp Birdcage's price is currently recent enough to not need a mini. However, the PE Hat to Kill For's price is very old.
---- PE Hat to Kill For Mini ----
---- July 30th ----
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198298504614#!/compare/1564444800/1564617600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198179047010#!/compare/1562630400/1564704000
Traded from Tradeit.gg for an amount I could not locate. I did a quick google search and was unable to figure out how to find the sell history of their inventory. If there is a way and I'm just being dumb, don't hesitate to let me know.
---- July 25th ----
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074667785#!/compare/1546560000/1564531200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198158206236#!/compare/1564012800/1564099200
Cannot find any evidence of a trade. Crap.
---- April 6th ---- (Read in suggestion rules that Mini's can have prices up to 4 months old. Thank god for that.)
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30753;5;u10
Bought for $75. Due to the fact that Marketplace.tf currently no longer shows what Keys sold for during the beginning of April: https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6
I'd assume the only logical thing then is to "guesstimate" them to be around $1.80 each, since Keys have been around that price point for awhile now. Let me know if this isn't ok.
75/1.8 = 41.667, rounding up to 42 Keys total.
---- End of Mini ----
Therefore, 42 + 37 = 79 Keys for the Flaming Lantern Le Party Phantom.
---- May 4th ----
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198158206236#!/compare/1556928000/1557014400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049512514#!/compare/1556928000/1557014400
Bought from 호우 ! by My Pp Hard for 35 Keys. What an absolute steal.
I checked the history of each individual Key on pp's bp compare btw. There weren't any Keys shown in 호우 !'s bp compare (probably sold them really quick), so I had no choice. There were exactly 9 Keys in pp's bp compare that were from different trades.
---- End of Older Trades ----
We then have three recent usable trades to work with here, mine for 85 Keys, Zeus' for 79 Keys, and My Pp Hard's for 35 Keys.
We will disregard pp's trade as an extreme quickbuy. Lucky guy.
Zeus' PE Hat to Kill For Mini may have been a bit old and had only 1 usable trade to work with, but it's all I could find within the last 4 months.
The newer price should therefore be set to 79-85 Keys, however accurate the low end may be. It's at least more accurate than a year ago's price.
Hope this is good! Any advice or critiques for price suggesting are welcome. Will take down and resuggest if there's anything wrong.
there is another paypal sale for $184 on 6/25 (the one you mentioned above, this is the sale)
Ow recieved payment from Ohaimark for the lantern phantom.
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/478000653835173916/593580715271258113/3816e512f141831c68b92db3ccd4f07c.png
I gave this proof to a couple people but nobody suggested it.
Ah, interesting thanks! So this would make the sale about 101 Keys, since Keys on that day were selling on average for $1.83 on Marketplace.tf, 184/1.83 = 100.5, rounding up to 101.
Would you take this as an outlier? I feel that's a bit further above what Zeus and I paid for, but if enough people chime in with their opinion and/or other lost trades it might tip the balance one way or another :)
Anyways, I'm going to bed now.
Well it is actually higher than that because of paypal key value which is about 1.75k I believe, which would become 105k. And if I remember correctly my b/o was 110 keys. I had also been offered 75-95 in pure before, so tbh I don't think it should be an outlier considered what I had declined previously.
Do you have proof of the 75 & 95 Key offers? That would be a big help in pricing this hat at a higher range :)
Oh also, is there any place to check on PayPal Key value? I’m new to suggestions, but any help is appreciated!
I had this hat a while ago, tbh the only name I remember was Scott, he offered me I think 90 keys. If I see him around again, I'll ask him.
And for paypal value, you check the forums for active key sellers I think or just what trusted people are buy/selling for. Typically it sits around 1.70ish up or down. I think someone used 1.75$ recently in a suggestion.
Alright cool, thanks for the help! Until proof is found for those past offers, however, I don’t believe there’s enough to support the high end going up to 105 Keys, but I’ll keep searching around.
As I said, if I can find him, I'll share what I get. But still think that its low, and should wait for more sales if you won't just include it into the range.
https://i.gyazo.com/4365ef721e124e15d6cfbf7752fbdcbd.png
i found him lmao
Oh sweet that helps a lot man! That's definitely enough proof now :)
You have no basis to call 105 high, so i have no idea why you are choosing to not include it. 79-105 would probably work best here.
Oh alright my apologies, for future reference what would a basis be then? I had thought a basis was if it's significantly higher than the other prices, and I'd thought 20 Keys was a bit too high from the 2nd highest since this hat isn't a super duper expensive item. I'll take this down and resuggest.
79 and 105 aren't that far apart, and generally determining outliers can be done based off buyers/sellers, and how the sale falls in with other sales.
Alrighty then, thanks!