Using last month.

Sale 1:

Sold for 10 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198138135050#!/compare/1564099200/1564272000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048563101#!/compare/1564185600/1564272000

https://backpack.tf/item/7461831646

X = 10

Sale 2:

Sold for 9 keys + ~0.5 keys in items

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198046393528#!/compare/1565136000/1565222400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198161266758#!/compare/1565136000/1565222400

https://backpack.tf/item/7461831646

X = 9.5

Sale 3:

Sold to a bot for 7 keys + 21 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198350773152#!/compare/1566000000/1566086400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198974277313#!/compare/1566000000/1566086400

https://backpack.tf/item/7535609698

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/M0D7K07Z

Seller sold ref for another key.

X = 7.5

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30922;5;u3003

https://backpack.tf/item/6473744500 - August 1st, $21.50

Couldn’t find the other two histories.

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MLRGE5NO - No noteworthy B/O’s for July 23rd

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/M0DDX0J2 - No B/O for August 1st

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MLRL8E65 - No noteworthy B/O’s for August 15th

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2019-07-23&price=21.5 - $21.5 / $1.81 = 11.88 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2019-08-01&price=21.5 - $21.5 / $1.80 = 11.94 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2019-08-15&price=14.16 - $14.16 / $1.83 = 7.74 keys

X = 12 (2x)

X = 7.5

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/7461831646 (#1-3)

https://backpack.tf/item/7457422440 (#4)

https://backpack.tf/item/6547338833 (#5-7)

https://backpack.tf/item/6473162429 (#8)

https://backpack.tf/item/7417379225 - tradeit

https://backpack.tf/item/6857705639 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/6547338833 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/6465360882 - scrap

#1

Bulk for Cloudy Pot

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048563101#!/compare/1564876800/1565049600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198046393528#!/compare/1564876800/1565049600

#2

Sold with a couple keys in items for Big Elfin Deal

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198161266758#!/compare/1565222400/1565308800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198078320537#!/compare/1565222400/1565308800

#3

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198078320537#!/compare/1565308800/1565395200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198101300189#!/compare/1565395200/1565481600

Looks like 9 keys but I can’t confirm. Looks like this thing was gambled away afterwards, so it’s likely it sold to a gambled that didn’t have it scanned in their backpack.

#4

Untraceable, 8 keys match

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198334598690#!/compare/1565395200/1565481600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198178638591#!/compare/1565395200/1565481600

https://i.imgur.com/MOXvCEd.png - Labelled as 12 keys

#5

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198089253101#!/compare/1564185600/1564272000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198340634356#!/compare/1564185600/1564272000

https://i.imgur.com/MOXvCEd.png - Labelled as 9 keys + 20 ref (~9.5 keys)

#6

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198340634356#!/compare/1565395200/1565481600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198034108440#!/compare/1564790400/1565481600

https://i.imgur.com/MOXvCEd.png - Labelled as 12 keys

#7

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198034108440#!/compare/1565481600/1565654400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198878866368#!/compare/1565395200/1565654400

#8

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197992295262#!/compare/1565481600/1565568000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198878866368#!/compare/1565395200/1565654400

Sellers/Buyers:

https://i.imgur.com/hpgq643.png

https://backpack.tf/item/7535609698 - 10 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7452940639 - 14 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7457422440 - 14 keys

Sales at:

7.5 (2x)

9.5

10

12 (2x)

The average price of the sales is less than 10, so we round to the nearest 0.5 keys here.

Excluding 12, due to the seller at 10.

Excluding 7.5, even though it may be a common trading point, as we’re already knocking 12 out. Removing both 7.5 and 12 would still result in the same average, and would be a tighter range.

Going with 9.5-10.