Suggestion: Terror-Watt Boxcar Bomber at 21–30 keys

Price Suggestion

~21 keys

terror-watt

80 votes up

20 votes down

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This suggestion was closed Fri, 15 Nov 19 01:15:28 +0000 by the submitter.

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Comments

Been going low for a while now.

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30546;5;u57

(Putting keys at 1.83)

Sale 1 :]

September 1, 2019 - $38 (~21k)

Sale 2:]

September 1, 2019 - $55.56 (~30k)

Sale 3:]

September 4, 2019 - $54.95 (~30k)

Sale 4:]

September 6, 2019 - $42 (~23k)

One currently on Marketplace for $54.99 (~30k). (September 7, 2019)

One for sale on the Steam Market for $50 (~27k):https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Unusual%20Boxcar%20Bomber?filter=Terror

And one Classified on here for 30k.

So sales in keys are: 21, 23, 30, 30

Didn't get any proof of item trades as I don't really know how to but any help in the comments is appreciated!

This is my first real suggestion, any tips at all will help!

(Re-suggestion to tighten range)

Heres the item sales. Nothing usable but supportive of the drop

Sale 1. Oneway

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198253033806#!/compare/1564531200/1564704000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198290596280#!/compare/1564617600/1564704000

> gambling https://backpack.tf/item/5987391069

Sale 2: Went w/ pfetti mining for MN BOA + 2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198117257215#!/compare/1560470400/1560643200

MN Boa alone has buyers above unsolds on the boxcar, this will surprisingly likely end up in range if there was a b/o to cap at. Given there isnt, this cant be used but supports a drop regardless.

Sale 3: Looks like a bp sale

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198800376958#!/compare/1561852800/1561939200

No caps

https://bot.tf/stats/listings?def=30546&q=5&ef=Terror-Watt&craft=1&aus=0&ks=0&source=browser_script

Something worth noting about your mp sales, you have to take the key prices of the day the item sold

In this case: sep 1 was @ 1.82, sep 4 was @ 1.81, sep 6 was 1.82. Doesnt look like it’ll change much though.

Thanks for the sales and thanks for letting me know about the keys, will keep that in mind if/when I do more suggestions :D

Some more sales!

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30546;5;u57

Sale 1 :] September 9, 2019 - $54.99 (~30k)

Sale 2 :] September 12, 2019 - $31 (~17k)

Sale 3 :] September 13, 2019 - $49.99 (~27.5k)

Sale 4 :] https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198372681544#!/compare/1567900800/1567987200

Looks like he sold it to a bot. Bot has buy order for 14.61k (and sell order for 31.39k)

Others sales/trades seem to be to marketplace bots but the bots aren't in the historys

Classifieds: https://i.gyazo.com/1fb172538ab8b4ac2492294f07a3cc7f.png

Even more sales!

This hat has been abused on many gambling sites as its value is much higher than it should be.

Prices are fluctuating a lot, probably because most people buying this hat are going to throw it on a gambling site for an unfair advantage.

I am assuming that's why its has been sold for these prices recently:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30546;5;u57

September 17, 2019 - $80 (~44k)

October 4, 2019 - $35.55 (~19.5k)

October 17, 2019 - $70 (~38k)

October 22, 2019 - $69.99 (~38k)

Gambled hats:

https://backpack.tf/item/7957184622

https://backpack.tf/item/5987391069

https://backpack.tf/item/7957324812

https://backpack.tf/item/7338362355

For sale:

https://scrap.tf/unusuals/89 - 36 keys, 46.66 refined

https://mannco.store/item/14448 - $69.98 (~38k)

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30546;5;u57 - $70 (~38k)

These make my range look off but I feel like gambling has a huge effect on these sales.

It looks like the gamblers have caught on and started buying it for what they could.

Please comment if I missed anything or got something wrong!

Thanks for keeping the suggestion up to date, that's really helpful for us :)

Given the new sales I believe a somewhat wider/higher range may be warranted. Perhaps something like 28-38 could work; the low marketplace sales were probably buy orders, and 44 is likely on the high side. With the amount of data points at 38 it is definitely worth including. At 28-38 it still gets the drop it so desperately needs, while being a little more conservative, including the data from when the market restabilized a bit after the crash.

Alright that sounds good. What do I do now?

You can close this suggestion and then create a new one with your new range, and include the original information + the new sales you've found (and optionally a rationale behind the range you've selected).