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https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30570;5;u3005
From March 4, 2020
$17.1 / $1.68 = 10.18 keys
$20 / $1.69 = 11.83 keys
$20 / $1.71 = 11.70 keys
$20 / $1.71 = 11.70 keys
$32.99 / $1.72 = 19.18 keys
$20 / $1.68 = 11.90 keys
$34.99 / $1.69 = 20.70 keys
$35 / $1.70 = 20.59 keys
$34.99 / $1.78 = 19.66 keys
$33.66 / $1.88 = 17.90 keys
$33.66 / $1.88 = 17.90 keys
$29.99 / $1.89 = 15.87 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/8028448240
https://backpack.tf/item/7435814882
https://backpack.tf/item/6119301734
https://backpack.tf/item/3268810554
https://backpack.tf/item/3268972090
https://backpack.tf/item/3311909554
https://backpack.tf/item/5722643872
https://backpack.tf/item/3399359498
//
https://bot.tf/stats/item?def=30570&q=5&ef=Fountain%20of%20Delight&craft=1&aus=0&ks=0&source=browser_script
https://gyazo.com/01dac74828300fa2f3dae806c23539ba
1 @ 16 keys 4/16/2020, 12:38:05 PM
1 @ 17 keys, 35.00 ref 5/6/2020, 11:04:28 PM
//
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198334598690#!/compare/1584316800/1584403200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198134081106#!/compare/1537228800/1585094400
Untraceable
//
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198134081106#!/compare/1588464000/1589932800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198454615761#!/compare/1588377600/1588464000
14 keys
//
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1583625600/1583712000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198101915413#!/compare/1583712000/1583798400
14 keys and about .75 keys was returned as change
Taking at 13 keys
//
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198101915413#!/compare/1583884800/1583971200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198224648164#!/compare/1583884800/1583971200
Full sale untraceable
//
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198224648164#!/compare/1584835200/1585008000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198025226061#!/compare/1583625600/1585180800
Full sale untraceable
//
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198059836930#!/compare/1588464000/1588550400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197982127154#!/compare/1588550400/1588636800
Full sale untraceable
//
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197982127154#!/compare/1588723200/1588809600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198874677360#!/compare/1588723200/1588809600
13 keys + 40 refined, rounding to 14 keys
//
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198281218051#!/compare/1586563200/1586649600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198339945463#!/compare/1586649600/1586822400
Still unique
//
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198339945463#!/compare/1587340800/1587600000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198334598690#!/compare/1587513600/1587600000
Untraceable
//
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1586995200/1587081600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198280434589#!/compare/1586995200/1587081600
Untraceable
//
Sales
10
12
12
12
12
13
14
14
16
16
18
18
18
19
20
21
21
https://gyazo.com/3783c0d6293036472c2b14c9e210dae4
5 buyers from 13-14 keys
4 sellers under 18
wow uh
I think 3 sales at 18 is enough to include 18 keys despite sellers at lower
Going with 16-18 keys
Sellers are now down to 16.35, buyers up to 15.
I am not sure why you ignored the bot.tf buys, they can be usable, esp if there is a common trading point at buy order price.
https://bot.tf/stats/item?def=30570&q=5&ef=Fountain%20of%20Delight&craft=1&aus=0&ks=0&source=browser_script
https://imgur.com/a/GzuiNVN
Buys:
2x @ 13.7
2x @ 13.8
1 @ 14
1 @ 14.3
1 @ 14.7
+ 1 new sale @ 16.4
New mp.tf sales:
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30570;5;u3005
$23.21 / $1.94 = 11.96 keys
$33 / $1.96 = 16.84 keys
$33 / $1.98 = 16.67 keys
$34.99 / $1.98 = 17.67 keys
$33 / $1.98 = 16.67 keys
$39.99 / $2.04 = 19.60 keys
Probably some new item sales but there should be enough sales already:
Sales at:
10
12 (x5)
13
14 (x8)
15
16 (x3)
17 (x3)
18 (x4)
19
20 (x2)
21 (x2)
I think anything 18 and over is high here, esp given that they are all mp.tf sales (sans the 17.5 that was rounded up) It clearly can't sell for more 18 or more on the classies. As for the low-end, I think 14 is decent, as 14 is clearly a common trading point. This excludes 7 sales as low and 9 as high, which is fairly balanced. While buyers are up to 15 now, they could easily drop back down, especially since it isn't selling well on the classies.
I think 14 - 17 is the way to go here
given the amount of buyers at 15 keys and looking at when the sales at 14 occurred, though 14 may have been accurate to include 2~ months ago it is clearly on the lower side in the current market. the recent sales as seen in the past 30 days on bot.tf and marketplace indicate a price that is closer to the suggested price (only 1 sale at 15~ in the past 30 days with all the marketplace sales being 16+) hence why i am accepting this