Sale 1:

Sold with 13 keys for Scorching Batter’s Helmet (70) + Green Energy Yellow Belt (Suggestion at ~200, needs some work though)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197964171516#!/compare/1592697600/1592784000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198064327020#!/compare/1592784000/1592870400

https://backpack.tf/item/8588934962

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4WXJKVGN - B/O of 280

Should cap, refer to my statement on the state of the belt suggestion below.

280 keys (Capped by B/O)

Sale 2:

Sold for Etheral Essence Peak (Suggestion at 130) + Snowfallen Trucker’s Topper (55) + Sunbeams Nuke (82.5)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197989031107#!/compare/1586995200/1587168000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197964171516#!/compare/1586995200/1587081600

https://backpack.tf/item/8169916069

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/429NVJ0V - No B/O

267.5 keys

Sale 3:

Sold for Scorching Patriot Peak + Cloudy Moon Armored Authority + Sunbeams Cotton Head

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057412106#!/compare/1585872000/1585958400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197989031107#!/compare/1585785600/1586044800

https://backpack.tf/item/8588934962

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/YD1PZ5WX - B/O of 349

Re-sold for significantly cheaper (Sale 2), and this sale goes outdated tomorrow. Even if it were to be used, it would be an outlier given the cheaper seller/sales.

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30066;5;u13

$475, May 12th

$425, June 27th

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-05-12&price=475 - $475 / $1.90 = 250.00 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/5389366554 - May 12th

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MXXV9GV1 - No B/O

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-06-27&price=425 - $425 / $2.04 = 208.33 keys

Couldn’t find the history for this one. No snapshots at the time either.

After rounding, we have:

250 keys

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/6630023975 (#1)

https://backpack.tf/item/5389366554 (#2)

#1

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044111092#!/compare/1588982400/1589068800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114402400#!/compare/1588982400/1589068800

#2

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063919103#!/compare/1589587200/1589673600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093889730#!/compare/1589500800/1589587200

Green Energy Yellow Belt:

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5ec58db445a57107f737208d

Newer sales and the current buyers (~195) indicate that the sales at 175 and 185 should be excluded. This should be enough to prove the sale involving this item should cap.

Etheral Patriot:

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5ef30314de3d96332e5b6c21

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/dK12dcM.png

https://backpack.tf/item/6630023975 - 300 keys

Sales at:

208 (Rounds to 210)

250

267.5 (Rounds to 270)

280

Rounding to the nearest 5 keys.

210 may seem a little low, but there’s not much evidence to call it an outlier. Keeping 210 for now.

The most recent marketplace sale was around a week ago, and the history for it hasn’t been found. Might be a good idea to wait a while and see if the history comes to light, to see if it has any other sales that can be used.

Taking 210-280.