The Sale:

Sold for 11 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1592179200/1592265600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198320412894#!/compare/1589932800/1592265600

https://backpack.tf/item/6139471589

Gambled afterwards.

11 keys

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/480;5;u57

$22.53, April 4th

$22.77, April 4th

$16, May 29th

$22.67, June 12th

$22, June 17th

$20, June 23rd

$20.99, July 1st

No snapshots past May 26th

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-04-04&price=22.77 - $22.77 / $1.72 = 13.24 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-04-04&price=22.53 - $22.53 / $1.72 = 13.10 keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MNR7ZXP8 - Don’t know if the sales on marketplace belonged to any of the sellers here. Wouldn’t affect the range if it did anyways.

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-05-29&price=16 - $16 / $1.94 = ~8.247 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-06-12&price=22.67 - $22.67 / $2.00 = 11.34 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-06-17&price=22 - $22 / $1.98 = 11.11 keys

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-06-23&price=20 - $20 / $2.00 = 10.00 keys

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6 - $20.99 / $2.02 = 10.39 keys

Couldn’t find any of the histories.

After rounding, we have:

13 keys (2x)

Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/7957284126 (#1-5)

https://backpack.tf/item/6139471589 (#6)

https://backpack.tf/item/7957474889 (#7-10)

https://backpack.tf/item/2825894629 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/7957219406 - scrap

Ignored all Robinoslav interactions as they usually only trade in bulk or obtain their items from gamblers, making their sales impossible to work out a possible value for.

#1

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1585872000/1585958400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054448372#!/compare/1585785600/1585958400

Gambled afterwards.

#2

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1592092800/1592179200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198865417288#!/compare/1592092800/1592265600

Gambled afterwards.

#3

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199010987801#!/compare/1592352000/1592524800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198089253101#!/compare/1592352000/1592438400

Probably gambled.

#4

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198089253101#!/compare/1592524800/1592611200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198269337198#!/compare/1592870400/1592956800

#5

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198269337198#!/compare/1592870400/1592956800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1593129600/1593216000

#6

Untraceable, probably gambled

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198118157202#!/compare/1592611200/1592697600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198081172172#!/compare/1592697600/1592870400

#7

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115160019#!/compare/1585872000/1585958400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198285371555#!/compare/1585872000/1585958400

Gambled afterwards.

#8

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1589155200/1589241600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080179568#!/compare/1590451200/1590537600

#9

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1592956800/1593043200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198976417795#!/compare/1592956800/1593475200

#10

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198358778649#!/compare/1593388800/1593475200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198358778649#!/compare/1593388800/1593475200

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/G5bsiyE.png

https://backpack.tf/item/7957284126 - ~10 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/2825894629 - 11 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7957113160 - 13 keys

Sales at:

8

10

10.5

11 (2x)

11.5

13 (2x)

2 month old seller at 11, excluding 11.5 and 13 (were marketplace sales)

One of the sales at 11 is a pure sale, so I’ll keep 11 in the range.

Taking 8-11.