Resuggestion, thanks to Xerogyf & Mindacos for the info!

WHAT YEAR IS IT?!?!!?

Sale 1:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198878948902#!/compare/1583798400/1583884800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198979253488#!/compare/1585699200/1589068800

Untrace

sale 2:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198979253488#!/compare/1585699200/1586563200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197972383519#!/compare/1586390400/1586476800

untrace

sale 3:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197972383519#!/compare/1586736000/1586908800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197968546159#!/compare/1586822400/1586908800

Untrace

sale 4:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/652;5;u19

$29.99 / $1.68 = 17.85 keys

$24 / $1.68 = 14.29 keys

Xerogyf’s Part:

No new sales, unfortunately can't find the item histories.

Given that the sales happened on the same day, I would guess that the guy who bought for 14 sold for 18 (to private inventory, then history goes away)

To support this, there were 7 CH Big Elfins before, I know this because I had the number of existence of each unusual recorded for a project (from January or something iirc) https://imgur.com/a/KyRL9HA

This shows that both sales are almost 100% to be on the same history.

Of course its possible that the buyer bought for $30 and sold later for $24, but logically that feels much less likely.

Because of how steep of a drop this is, I would probably go 18 flat. If my theory is right, 18 guaranteed quicksold, 14 almost 100% did as well (would of been bought quickly by gamblers so very unlikely it was up for awhile at $24). Of course 18 did quicksell, but given how outdated this hat is, I would rather update to 18 flat and reprice this higher at a later date if 18 flat ends up being too low.

Mindacos’ Part:

I agree with Xerg here, 18 flat would be the better call.

It's gonna have to be purely based on speculation as far as I can see since I can't find the history either, but it's clear that these two sales happened really quickly. 18 flat is more conservative too, so I believe the resuggestion is warranted.