Suggestion: Disco Beat Down Modest Pile of Hat at 30–40 keys

28 keys match on the seller’s end, a further 2 keys that don’t appear on the seller’s end appear on the buyer’s end. I don’t doubt that it sold for the full 31 here.

31 keys

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/139;5;u62

$69.95, May 5th

$69.95, May 27th

$69.99, May 30th

$69.50, June 7th

$60, June 14th

$74.99, July 7th

$74.99, July 11th

$50, July 11th

$77.99, July 25th

https://backpack.tf/item/7017751287 - The $74.99 July 11th sale and either the $50 July 11th sale or the $77.99, July 25th sale

https://backpack.tf/item/4589139770 - July 7th, Erik’s sale

https://i.imgur.com/bAGS8oG.png - Erik confirms

https://backpack.tf/item/2765167869 - Possibly the July 25th sale (refer to down below)

Couldn’t find any other histories.

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-05-05&price=69.95 - $69.95 / $1.88 = 37.21 keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/M19L12L0 - No important B/O

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-05-27&price=69.95 - $69.95 / $1.92 = 36.43 keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/YD158ZQV - No important B/O

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-05-30&price=69.99 - $69.99 / $1.94 = 36.08 keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4EPQ1KND - No important B/O

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-06-07&price=69.5 - $69.5 / $1.98 = 35.10 keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/466ELWOZ - No important B/O

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-06-14&price=60 - $60 / $1.99 = 30.15 keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4KV88WP8 - No important B/O

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-07-07&price=74.99 - $74.99 / $1.98 = 37.87 keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MQ01LVZ3 - No B/O

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-07-11&price=74.99 - $74.99 / $1.99 = 37.68 keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4EP5N6G2 - No B/O

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-07-11&price=50 - $50 / $1.99 = 25.13 keys

Would’ve gone to a buy order

http://manic.tf/keyprice?at=2020-07-25&price=77.99 - $77.99 / $1.93 = 40.41 keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MXX781P8 - May have been the 37 key seller (only one of the sellers with a marketplace link), but wouldn’t affect the range if I’m wrong anyways.

After rounding, we have:

25 keys

30 keys

35 keys

36 keys (2x)

37 keys

38 keys (2x)

40 keys

[b]Other Sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/7956087246 (#1 & #2)

https://backpack.tf/item/7017751287 (#3)

https://backpack.tf/item/4589139770 (#4-7)

https://backpack.tf/item/2765167869 (#8-15)

Bulk for Beams Vive La France

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198273936811#!/compare/1590796800/1590883200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198137566942#!/compare/1590796800/1590883200

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198137566942#!/compare/1591142400/1591228800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198139061326#!/compare/1590969600/1591228800

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074043822#!/compare/1592179200/1592265600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198030058573#!/compare/1592092800/1592179200

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198231711740 - won’t update

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198395025691#!/compare/1586649600/1592092800

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198395025691 - won’t update

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091502579#!/compare/1592092800/1592179200

Buyer sold on marketplace for $74.99 afterwards.

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198986747837#!/compare/1594080000/1594339200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074043822#!/compare/1594080000/1594166400

Probably gambled

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074043822#!/compare/1594080000/1594166400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198176593866#!/compare/1594080000/1594166400

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198100484031#!/compare/1588896000/1589241600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198105087064#!/compare/1589068800/1589241600

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198105087064#!/compare/1589068800/1589241600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198267189538#!/compare/1589155200/1589241600

#10

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198267189538#!/compare/1589587200/1589673600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198106206016#!/compare/1589932800/1590019200

Missing info in the history

#11

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198106206016#!/compare/1590019200/1590105600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198825748033#!/compare/1590019200/1590105600

#12

Bulk for GBH party Phantom

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198825748033#!/compare/1590019200/1590105600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198869506063#!/compare/1590105600/1590192000

#13

Transferred between accounts, broker or something.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198869506063#!/compare/1591056000/1591142400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198195734346#!/compare/1591142400/1591228800

#14

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198334357092#!/compare/1593561600/1593993600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305494036#!/compare/1593648000/1593993600

https://i.imgur.com/ACWkBye.png - labelled as 29 keys + 10 ref

#15

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097427947#!/compare/1594598400/1596067200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1595635200/1595894400

Sellers/Buyers:

https://i.imgur.com/InOTRBm.png

https://backpack.tf/item/2765167869 - ~32.3 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/4589139770 - ~32.3 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7956526814 - 45 keys

Buyers as high as 30 keys.

Sales at:

35 (2x)

36 (2x)

38 (2x)

40 (2x)

25 is an obvious outlier, excluding 25.

Both sellers at ~32 are fairly concerning, but one was only listed about a week ago, the other auto-beat their listing

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y807LWPN

Prior to this they were listed at 35

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y9Q998D6

I will keep the sales higher than this for now, and re-suggest if necessary later.

The sale at 30 is lower than quickbuyers, but there currently aren’t a whole lot of buyers at 30+, and since we’re including sales much higher than the sellers, it should be fine to set 30 as our low-end.

Taking 30-40.

Seems like 1 of the sellers has sold, not in their inv anymore https://imgur.com/a/NGOiRlM

Market over time:

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4EPXKX0Q

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4KV8ND1N

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MVQXLPNE

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/M19KEZV1

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/YD1XE3PR - buyers are up to ~31 now

Seems like buyers have hovered around 29-32 for the last 2 months, only being over 32 for a short period of time. I would rather do 32 as the low-end here to avoid including sales under buyers, since there isn't a big common trading point there. The sellers under 35 seem to be selling pretty quick, so im not too worried about including all the sales above the current sellers, 40 is a good pure high-end. The lone seller at 32.5 will probably sell soon as well.

32 - 40 should be slightly better here

I personally don't think that, at least the 31 key sale, should be excluded due to buyers that have since the creation of this suggestion, regardless of the status of some of these buy orders several months ago. Sales to buy orders, or sales at buy order price, have been used for a while now, and I haven't had any issues with using them in recent times:

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5f27ddd94243f047484b6f47

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5f1fe40ad8ec133b392c286f

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5f01986a4ef3d748be6592bd

Sales at or under buy orders shouldn't be used unless they are a common trading point. All of those examples had common trading points of 3+ sales at the price at or under buy orders. (many of were bot.tf buys, but you can take those at face value since its impossible to buy with items unless those items are being bought by the same bot at an overall price higher than the buy order, and of course even this buying with items is very, very rare) My point about the buy orders over time is to show that buyers have fluctuated between 29 and 32 recently, and the 1 key increase yesterday is a prime example of this fluctuation.

The sale @ 31 also sold in a bit over a day according to the bot.tf timestamps as well, which even if the buyers hadn't gone up a key would make me want to exclude it anyways. Given the seller at 32, im fine including 32 even though it sold to a bot because the fact the 32 seller has been there for a decent bit of time shows 32 is not a quicksell price currently. Overall, there isn't a common trading point at 30 or 31 so it should be better to use 32 as the low-end for a more conservative drop here.

bruhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

fine but if i have to re-suggest because buyers jump up to 32 i'm not gonna bother