mini

sales

loot farm and cs.trade exchanges

https://backpack.tf/item/7956041898

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198242645074#!/compare/1592352000/1594339200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198418740133#!/compare/1594252800/1594339200

https://backpack.tf/item/7955979038

exchange with cs.trade

https://backpack.tf/item/4401653267

untrace (bot.tf says 6.5~)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198341171690#!/compare/1591833600/1591920000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198260686830#!/compare/1591920000/1592006400

https://bot.tf/stats/item?def=30180&q=5&ef=Dead%20Presidents&craft=1&aus=0&ks=0&source=browser_script

https://gyazo.com/f0a2244e268fa623093001596af33b03

then exchanged with cs.trade

https://backpack.tf/item/3833218109

untrace/bulky

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071949575#!/compare/1592265600/1592352000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072618807#!/compare/1571443200/1592438400

sold with 4 keys for gfetti toy soldier

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120739614#!/compare/1591920000/1592092800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071949575#!/compare/1592006400/1592092800

using there as it has fewer usable sales

since im only using it there as an outlier sale, i can use it here, 8 - 4 = 4 which would be much too low. but this helps with the outlier decisions.

toy soldier

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5f2b6d728528c24eaa5e6e22

sold for 9 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198101623903#!/compare/1589155200/1590019200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080179568#!/compare/1589068800/1589155200

2 exchanges with lootfarm

https://backpack.tf/item/7956236477

mptf

14 on may 9 (14/1.89 = 7.5~)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-05-09

https://backpack.tf/item/7956929453

15.33 on may 18 (15.33/1.89 = 8~)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-05-18

https://backpack.tf/item/7956438810

22 on july 17 (22/1.97 = 11~)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-07-17

classies

https://gyazo.com/265dd758d144784e6e4e59bbee709125

buyers range around the 6.1~ mark

summary

1 @ 4

1 possibly @ 6.5~

1 @ 7.5

1 @ 8

1 @ 9

1 @ 11

conclusion

this one is tricky, as there are no current (well there is one on mptf, but its listed at higher than all the sales) or past sellers (snapshots for 2020) to go off of.

think 11 is a high outlier, while 4 is under buyers and 6.5 seems low. 9 while seems fine, after it was purchased, it was resold to a lootfarm bot.

excluding 2 at lower, and 2 at higher, seems fair i think

ill go with 7.5-8 here