Next resuggest..thanks K1ng.

Sales

Sale 1: Untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198242645074#!/compare/1592352000/1594339200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198418740133#!/compare/1594252800/1594339200

https://backpack.tf/item/7955979038

Sale 2: 6.5 keys~

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198341171690#!/compare/1591833600/1591920000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198260686830#!/compare/1591920000/1592006400

https://bot.tf/stats/item?def=30180&q=5&ef=Dead%20Presidents&craft=1&aus=0&ks=0&source=browser_script

https://gyazo.com/f0a2244e268fa623093001596af33b03

"6 keys + 22 ref can be seen in the first compare link for the untrace bot.tf sale and they don't match with other hats. Should be safe to assume it sold for that."

Sale 3: Untrace/Bulky

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071949575#!/compare/1592265600/1592352000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072618807#!/compare/1571443200/1592438400

Sale 4: Sold with 4 keys for gfetti toy soldier

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120739614#!/compare/1591920000/1592092800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071949575#!/compare/1592006400/1592092800

using there as it has fewer usable sales

since im only using it there as an outlier sale, i can use it here, 8 - 4 = 4 which would be much too low. but this helps with the outlier decisions.

toy soldier

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5f2b6d728528c24eaa5e6e22

Sale 5: 9 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198101623903#!/compare/1589155200/1590019200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080179568#!/compare/1589068800/1589155200

Other exchanges, such as loot farm and cs.trade exchanges..

https://backpack.tf/item/7956041898

https://backpack.tf/item/4401653267

https://backpack.tf/item/3833218109

https://backpack.tf/item/7956236477

https://backpack.tf/item/2620769590 ----- dumped into bot right after?

https://backpack.tf/item/2148662157 ----- Untrace sales

Marketplace

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30180;5;u60

May

14 on may 9 (14/1.89 = 7.5~)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-05-09

https://backpack.tf/item/7956929453

15.33 on may 18 (15.33/1.89 = 8~)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-05-18

https://backpack.tf/item/7956438810

July

22 on july 17 (22/1.97 = 11~)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-07-17

August

15 on august 28 (15/1.85 = 8~)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-08-28

Classifieds

https://gyazo.com/f172ea4ca789de0823a87aa96441a92e

Summary

Sales at 4, 6.5, 7.5, 8, 8, 9, and 11.

Conclusion

Going with 6.5-8 here as 4 is low, and 9, 11 seem high here.