thanks xergo

sales

bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198268174395#!/compare/1591833600/1594425600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198328282971#!/compare/1591747200/1591833600

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197993565369#!/compare/1589932800/1592870400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199000773970#!/compare/1592092800/1593561600

mannco bot sale for $10/1.93 = 5.2~

https://mannco.store/item/18643

https://mannco.store/item/1

https://backpack.tf/item/2782711340

sold for 4 keys + 22 ref (4.4~)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1596153600/1596240000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198322957656#!/compare/1595462400/1596240000

buyout was same

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4WXWX1L0

sold in like 6-7 days~

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y3WD3D5R

untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198010369554#!/compare/1454918400/1590278400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1590192000/1590278400

marketplace

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1113;5;u3030

10 on may 30 (10/1.94 = 5~)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-05-30

11.11 on july 12 (11.11/1.98 = 5.5~)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-07-12

seller at 5 during the time, probably same one it disappeared after too

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4KVEVP3X > https://bot.tf/stats/listings/YD1QD33L

10 on july 29 (10/1.92 = 5~)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-07-29

classifieds

https://gyazo.com/7b99ee8837d3c75672fcbc6b364def97

summary

1 @ 4.4

3 @ 5

1 @ 5.2

conclusion

going with 4.4-5.2 here.