Suggestion Challenge 20

Squad 3 - aj

Mini for Bubbling Samur-Eye

Item 1

https://backpack.tf/item/9454174146

Sale 1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198375415722#!/compare/1605398400/1606003200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198795826430#!/compare/1605312000/1605398400

27 ref matches

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4K015KVX - buy order on the 15th Nov was 5 keys 18 ref

Item 2

https://backpack.tf/item/9147618697

Sale 2

Sold on MP

Item 3

https://backpack.tf/item/8003472693

Sale 3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198090614429#!/compare/1594598400/1606262400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198089812360#!/compare/1605830400/1606262400

Untrace / gambling

Sale 4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198089812360#!/compare/1606262400/1606435200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199099031605#!/compare/1606176000/1606262400

Sold to bot

Sale 5

Delisted off MP and listed on Mannco

Item 4

https://backpack.tf/item/7438405705

Sale 6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112714186#!/compare/1607299200/1608163200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198157928445#!/compare/1607644800/1607817600

Untrace / bulk

Sale 7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198157928445#!/compare/1608076800/1608163200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198866158543#!/compare/1608163200/1608336000

Nothing matches near ID

But by process of elimination:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198157928445#!/compare/1608076800/1608163200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198340634356#!/compare/1608076800/1608163200

The first 7 keys come from selling the Hellish Inferno Taunt: I See You

Upon inspecting the key histories, the keys in the second batch all come from this user:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198978310432#!/compare/1607990400/1608249600

Sold for 6 keys

Then this user sold to the next user in the Skullcracker history:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198978310432#!/compare/1607990400/1608249600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198866158543#!/compare/1608163200/1608336000

6 keys match ID

2 sales at 6 keys here

Item 5

https://backpack.tf/item/7362280523

Sale 8

Excluding sales to and from qs.store

Sale 9

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198118802562#!/compare/1606867200/1607126400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067927716#!/compare/1606867200/1607126400

Gifting / untrace

Item 6

https://backpack.tf/item/6894895457

Sale 10

Delisted off MP

Item 7

https://backpack.tf/item/6401726344

Sale 11

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1608422400/1608508800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198042483044#!/compare/1608076800/1608508800

All 6 keys match histories for Scrapyard bot

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y30LZOO1 - buyout 6 keys 6.55 ref

Taking 6 keys here

Item 8

https://backpack.tf/item/4728342351

Sale 12

Excluding sales to and from qs.store

Item 9

https://backpack.tf/item/3555879862

Sale 13

Bought off MP

Item 10

https://backpack.tf/item/3495324964

Sale 14

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135394914#!/compare/1605398400/1605484800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198355572568#!/compare/1605484800/1605657600

Untrace / cash / scammed

Sale 15

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198355572568#!/compare/1605484800/1605657600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075890408#!/compare/1605312000/1605484800

Untrace / moving to main perhaps

Sale 16

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075890408#!/compare/1605312000/1605484800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198011321852#!/compare/1605398400/1605484800

13 keys match, bulk qs, also trading with a scammer alt won't get you banned cough

Item 11

https://backpack.tf/item/3158953864

Sale 17

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045916153#!/compare/1606953600/1607212800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091502579#!/compare/1606953600/1607040000

Bulk

Sale 18

Sold on MP

Item 12

https://backpack.tf/item/2908564819

Sale 19

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120423141#!/compare/1604102400/1604534400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199096723520#!/compare/1604534400/1608940800

Untrace / scammed!

Sale 20

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199096723520#!/compare/1604534400/1608940800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198251704884#!/compare/1604448000/1604534400

Bulk / excluding because traded with obvious scammer fence

Item 13

https://backpack.tf/item/2804678169

Sale 21

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067298751#!/compare/1605484800/1608249600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198037401152#!/compare/1605657600/1606176000

Not unusualified

Sale 22

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198037401152#!/compare/1606694400/1607126400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1607040000/1607126400

Untrace

Item 14

https://backpack.tf/item/2782835989

Sale 23

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198101829283#!/compare/1605830400/1606089600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198316071886#!/compare/1605916800/1606003200

Bulk for Gourdian Angel Classy Capper

Sale 24

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198316071886#!/compare/1606003200/1606089600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199002445120#!/compare/1606003200/1606089600

Sold for:

Vintage Engineer's Cap (Pink) - https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y96XNZVX - 35 ref

Bill's Hat (Team Spirit) - https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y30EQE00 - 2 keys 16.66 ref

Villain's Veil (Lime) - https://prnt.sc/wccqig - lime buyers pay 11 ref

Festive Sapper - https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MLL1WG2G - 34.11 ref

Festive SMG - https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MV63VPOV - 9.88 ref

Fuel Injector - https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MLL1W6N8 - 5.88 ref

Antarctic Parka (Australium Gold) - https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4PVON175 -12 ref

The Bruiser's Bandanna - https://bot.tf/stats/listings/M07W0NZQ - 15.66 ref

Starboard Crusader - https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4O6LZQ5W - 2 keys 23 ref

The Anger - https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4PVONDV5 - 3.88 ref

Robin Walkers - https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4PVOE2W0 - 3 keys

Millennial Mercenary - https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MG5J0GGQ - 39.11 ref

Adding this all up gets me 8 keys 206.18 ref

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y5ONWNO5 - keys 57.88 ref

Sales comes to 11.56 keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4K0P5GL8 - buyout 7 keys 25 ref

Capping at 7.43 keys here

Sale 25

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199002445120#!/compare/1606003200/1606089600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198839769606#!/compare/1606003200/1606089600

Sold for 5 keys and Festivized Killstreak Purple Range Sniper Rifle (Minimal Wear)

Mini for Purple Range Sniper:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/15007;15;w2;pk7;kt-1;festive

Dec 7th - $6.21 / $1.76 = 3.53 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198131876045#!/compare/1605916800/1606003200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198839769606#!/compare/1605830400/1605916800

Sold alongside Painted Pink Ghastlierest Gibus for 2 keys and a ref

https://prnt.sc/wccy9h - lowest pink seller is at 45 ref, so the rifle was bought for ~1.2 to 1.3 keys

Sales are kind of discrepant on the rifle but it means the sale for the Screaming Tiger Skullcracker was at minimum 6 keys which would support the range I will be taking later

Sale 26

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198839769606#!/compare/1606176000/1606262400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198326070127#!/compare/1606089600/1606176000

Sold alongside 4 keys for Bubbling Samur-Eye and 17 ref

Sale 27

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198326070127#!/compare/1606348800/1606435200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198872169387#!/compare/1606435200/1607990400

Sold for 6 keys and a Non-Craftable Name Tag

No snapshots available but sale is likely 6.2 keys or so

Sale 28

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198872169387#!/compare/1606435200/1607990400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198271328990#!/compare/1600819200/1606608000

Untrace

Sale 29

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198271328990#!/compare/1600819200/1606608000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198984663128#!/compare/1607472000/1607558400

Untrace

Sale 30

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198984663128#!/compare/1607558400/1609200000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199103740298#!/compare/1607385600/1607472000

Untrace

Item 15

https://backpack.tf/item/2708651201

Sale 31

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198052431073#!/compare/1608163200/1608249600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198076395081#!/compare/1607644800/1608336000

Sold on SCM

Marketplace sales

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1111;5;u3006

Nov 3rd - $15 / $1.82 = 8.24 keys

Nov 16th - $15 / $1.77 = 8.47 keys

Nov 16th - $15 / $1.77 = 8.47 keys

Nov 20th - $11.87 / $1.75 = 6.78 keys

Nov 28th - $15 / $1.76 = 8.52 keys

Nov 30th - $15 / $1.76 = 8.52 keys

Dec 4th - $10 / $1.76 = 5.68 keys

Dec 17th - $15.99 / $2.08 = 7.69 keys

Sales

6, 6, 6, 7.43, 6.2, 8.24, 8.47, 8.47, 6.78, 8.52, 8.52, 5.68, 7.69

Sales but ordered

5.68, 6, 6, 6, 6.2, 6.78, 7.43, 7.69, 8.24, 8.47, 8.47, 8.52, 8.52

Sales but ordered but also rounded

5.5, 6, 6, 6, 6, 7, 7.5, 7.7, 8, 8.5, 8.5, 8.5, 8.5

Current Listings

https://prnt.sc/wcdmm1

1 seller for 6 keys

2 seller for 7 keys

2 month unsold at 7.55 keys

1 month unsold at 8 keys

Buyers at 5.33 keys

https://gladiator.tf/listings/5fdb63e9577f15ae305d7722 - sellers have been as low as 6.3 ish keys in the past 2 weeks or so and consistent at that

2/4 of the 6 key sales are pure sales.

I think based off this information, I'll go with 5.5 - 7.5 keys here, thanks Foamy, I should probably realise I can't exclude 70% of my sales :D

Going with 5.5 - 7.5 keys here