Mini for Stormy 13th Hour Killer's Kabuto

Item 1

https://backpack.tf/item/9740168909

Sale 1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080179568#!/compare/1611792000/1611878400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198859238775#!/compare/1612310400/1612310400

https://prnt.sc/z5gfhk

One of these, probably the $39.99

Item 2

https://backpack.tf/item/9261693054

Sale 2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198019953860#!/compare/1606953600/1607040000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1606953600/1607040000

Sold for 16 keys 44 ref

Taking 17 keys

Sale 2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1608768000/1608854400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199084784906#!/compare/1608768000/1608854400

Untrace

Sale 3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199084784906#!/compare/1609027200/1609113600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198261919481#!/compare/1609113600/1609200000

Untrace

Sale 4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198261919481#!/compare/1609200000/1609286400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1609200000/1609286400

5 keys 12 ref matches

Sale 5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1609113600/1609200000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198123923047#!/compare/1609113600/1609200000

https://prnt.sc/z5gv2w

Sold for 15 keys 1 ref

Sale 6

Excluding tftrade.ru trades, they have a site credit system of sorts

Sale 7

Bot shuffle

Rest of the sales are on and off the site, excluding them

Item 2

https://backpack.tf/item/9246586845

Sale 8

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198252376428#!/compare/1605225600/1605398400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198454615761#!/compare/1605139200/1605225600

Untrace

Sale 9

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198454615761#!/compare/1606953600/1607040000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093818820#!/compare/1606953600/1607040000

https://backpack.tf/item/9142871083

Only 17 keys match, the above history does not

Sale 10

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093818820#!/compare/1608595200/1608681600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198886850124#!/compare/1608595200/1608681600

Untrace

Sale 11

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198886850124#!/compare/1608595200/1608681600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086972914#!/compare/1608595200/1608681600

Untrace

Sale 12

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086972914#!/compare/1608595200/1608681600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198820335875#!/compare/1608595200/1608681600

Untrace

Sale 13

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198820335875#!/compare/1608595200/1608681600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198157836058#!/compare/1608508800/1608681600

Untrace

Sale 14

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198157836058#!/compare/1608508800/1608681600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198156733777#!/compare/1608595200/1608681600

Untrace

Sale 15

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198156733777#!/compare/1608681600/1608768000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067853901#!/compare/1608249600/1608681600

Untrace

Sale 16

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067853901#!/compare/1608249600/1608681600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198299312205#!/compare/1608595200/1608768000

Untrace

Sale 17

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198299312205#!/compare/1608595200/1608768000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115509750#!/compare/1587945600/1608854400

Untrace

Sale 18

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115509750#!/compare/1608940800/1609027200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198037674114#!/compare/1608854400/1609286400

Untrace

Item 3

https://backpack.tf/item/9094094084

Sale 19

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198164651434#!/compare/1606780800/1606867200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198454615761#!/compare/1606780800/1606867200

43.22 ref matches

Sale 20

Sold on MP

Item 4

https://backpack.tf/item/8960622837

Sale 21

Sold on MP

Sale 22

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198389863200#!/compare/1608336000/1608681600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199099101053#!/compare/1608249600/1608336000

Sold for 11 keys 9 ref

Sale 23

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199099101053#!/compare/1609372800/1609459200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1609372800/1609459200

Untrace

Sale 24

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1612915200/1613001600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198255227627#!/compare/1612915200/1613001600

Sold for 18 keys 26 ref

Taking 19 keys

Item 5

https://backpack.tf/item/8624083900

Sale 25

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068658515#!/compare/1609891200/1611187200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198873080041#!/compare/1610755200/1611187200

Untrace

Sale 26

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198873080041#!/compare/1610755200/1611187200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198363395191#!/compare/1611100800/1611187200

Untrace

Sale 27

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198031007256#!/compare/1611273600/1611532800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199104457222#!/compare/1611187200/1611273600

Rec matches

Sale 28

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199104457222#!/compare/1611187200/1611273600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198795826430#!/compare/1611187200/1611273600

Untrace

Item 6

https://backpack.tf/item/7813209192

Sale 29

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199106217370#!/compare/1609545600/1609632000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198356985023#!/compare/1609459200/1609632000

Untrace

Sale 30

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198356985023#!/compare/1610236800/1610582400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198195933333#!/compare/1610496000/1610582400

Untrace

Sale 31

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198195933333#!/compare/1610668800/1610755200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198176424865#!/compare/1610236800/1611014400

Untrace

Sale 32

Excluding tradeit

Sale 33

On and off mannco.store

Item 7

https://backpack.tf/item/7822450271

Sale 34

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199093430979#!/compare/1605830400/1605916800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199095402788#!/compare/1605657600/1605916800

Untrace

Sale 35

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199095402788#!/compare/1605916800/1606003200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1605916800/1606003200

4.66 ref matches

Sale 36

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1606176000/1606262400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199035749442#!/compare/1606176000/1606262400

Untrace

Sale 37

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199035749442#!/compare/1606262400/1606348800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1606348800/1606348800/nearest

0.22 ref matches

Sale 38

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199084784906#!/compare/1607126400/1607212800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199101711836#!/compare/1606176000/1607472000

Untrace

Item 8

https://backpack.tf/item/6976586582

Sale 39

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198110936008#!/compare/1606867200/1608076800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1606780800/1606867200

Untrace

Sale 40

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1608681600/1608768000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198930690607#!/compare/1608681600/1608768000

Sold for 15 keys and a 1.4 key sweet

Taking 16 keys here

Sale 41

tftrade.ru

Sale 42

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091142935#!/compare/1609718400/1609804800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198157836058#!/compare/1609718400/1609977600

Untrace

Sale 43

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198157836058#!/compare/1609718400/1609977600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198809409396#!/compare/1609113600/1609718400

Untrace

Item, 9

https://backpack.tf/item/6937277802

Sale 44

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054270952#!/compare/1605571200/1605657600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198140185303#!/compare/1586217600/1605657600

Bulky for Cloud 9 Modest Pile of Hat

Sale 45

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198140185303#!/compare/1606176000/1606694400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1606089600/1606176000

Sold for 16 keys 37.44 ref

Taking 17 keys

Sale 46

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1606521600/1606608000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198260077846#!/compare/1606521600/1606608000

Untrace

Sale 47

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198260077846#!/compare/1606608000/1607385600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198340829257#!/compare/1606089600/1606780800

Untrace

Sale 48

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198340829257#!/compare/1607472000/1607644800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199099427507#!/compare/1607731200/1613001600

Sold for 19 keys

Sale 49

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199099427507#!/compare/1608854400/1608940800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198016427901#!/compare/1565222400/1609027200

Untrace

Sale 50

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198016427901#!/compare/1609027200/1613088000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199085116273#!/compare/1608940800/1609027200

Untrace

Sale 51

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199085116273#!/compare/1610409600/1610496000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198175485301#!/compare/1610409600/1610668800

Untrace

Sale 52

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198175485301#!/compare/1610755200/1610841600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125791160#!/compare/1610755200/1610841600

Sold for Disco Beat Down Pirate Bandana

Probably use there

Item 10

https://backpack.tf/item/6488948135

Sale 53

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199104020413#!/compare/1606262400/1606435200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1606176000/1606262400

Untrace

Sale 54

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1606521600/1606608000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198169513645#!/compare/1606176000/1606867200

Untrace

Sale 55

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198169513645#!/compare/1607212800/1607299200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1607126400/1607212800

Appears to be bulk for '72 Taunt: Kazotsky Kick

Item trades with qs.store should always be taken with a grain of salt since they value items at their respective buy orders

Sale 56

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850121720#!/compare/1607558400/1607644800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198358047604#!/compare/1607644800/1607904000

Untrace

Item 11

https://backpack.tf/item/6454412257

Sale 57

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198149761601#!/compare/1605657600/1609286400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198842625332#!/compare/1608163200/1608249600

Sold for 12 keys and some ref?

Item 12

https://backpack.tf/item/5927612792

Sale 58

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198134692903#!/compare/1607904000/1610409600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198073230229#!/compare/1607040000/1610064000

Untrace

Item 13

https://backpack.tf/item/4789058139

Sale 59

Excluding tradeit

Sale 60

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199085116273#!/compare/1607817600/1607904000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198425524660#!/compare/1607817600/1607904000

Sold alongside 14 ref for 17 keys

Taking 17 keys

Sale 61

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198425524660#!/compare/1608336000/1608422400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199084784906#!/compare/1608336000/1608422400

10 keys match

Sale 62

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199084784906#!/compare/1608768000/1608854400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198369388540#!/compare/1608854400/1612483200

Another qs.store item offer

Sold for:

Atomic Universal Translator

Showstopper Taunt: Results Are In

Mannvich

WIll fit in range, again, take with a grain of salt

Item 13

https://backpack.tf/item/4788360222

Sale 63

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115721685#!/compare/1605830400/1605916800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198341377747#!/compare/1603756800/1606262400

Sold for 17 keys

Item 14

https://backpack.tf/item/4441647025

Sale 64

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097974780#!/compare/1605312000/1605398400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199043177646#!/compare/1605225600/1605398400

Sold for 16 keys 5.11 ref

Sale 65

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199043177646#!/compare/1605398400/1605484800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199065691950#!/compare/1605484800/1605571200

Sold for 17 keys

Item 15

https://backpack.tf/item/4236116750

Sale 66

Sold on MP

Item 16

https://backpack.tf/item/4203461545

Sale 67

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198136403937#!/compare/1594512000/1607731200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198129552058#!/compare/1607558400/1607731200

Bulk for Strange Spellbound A Well Wrapped Hat

Sale 68

Moved to bot

Sale 69

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199029736015#!/compare/1609891200/1609977600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198241330878#!/compare/1609891200/1610064000

Sold for 18 keys

Marketplace sales

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30658;5;u93

Nov 15th - $35.99 / $1.78 = 20.22 keys

Dec 1st - $27.63 / $1.76 = 15.70 keys

Dec 2nd - $31.95 / $1.76 = 18.15 keys

Dec 2nd - $30.99 / $1.76 = 17.61 keys

Dec 3rd - $31.99 / $1.76 = 18.18 keys

Dec 15th - $36.95 / $2.00 = 18.48 keys

Jan 2nd -$39.9 / $2.11 = 18.91 keys

Jan 5th - $39.9 / $2.12 = 18.82 keys

Jan 26th - $39.99 / $2.10 = 19.04 keys

Feb 3rd - $39.99 / $2.10 = 19.04 keys

Hidden history, item 17

https://backpack.tf/item/9103658352

Sale 70

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198018177887#!/compare/1607558400/1607644800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1607558400/1607644800

Sold for 16 keys 44 ref

Taking 17 keys

Sale 71

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1608940800/1609027200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115131622#!/compare/1608854400/1609027200

Untrace

Sale 72

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115131622#!/compare/1611014400/1611360000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198195933333#!/compare/1610928000/1611014400

Untrace

Sale 73

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198195933333#!/compare/1611273600/1611360000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199054550811#!/compare/1608854400/1612224000

Untrace

Sale 74

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199054550811#!/compare/1612656000/1612742400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199044225392#!/compare/1612656000/1612742400

Untrace

Sale 75

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199044225392#!/compare/1612742400/1612915200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199088663958#!/compare/1612656000/1612828800

Probably scammed

Sale 76

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199088663958#!/compare/1612656000/1612828800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199100906514#!/compare/1612742400/1612828800

29 keys match, maybe bulk qs

Sale 77

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199100906514#!/compare/1612915200/1613001600

https://gladiator.tf/listings/60259a99575d9c78e951d0a0 - buyout 18 keys

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Subatomic%20Universal%20Translator - seems to be 18 keys

Sales

17, 15, 17, 11, 19, 16, 17, 19, 12, 17, 10, 17, 16, 17, 18, 20, 16, 18, 18, 18, 18, 19, 19, 19, 19, 17, 18

Sales but ordered

10, 11, 12, 15, 16, 16, 16, 17, 17, 17, 17, 17, 17, 17, 18, 18, 18, 18, 18, 18, 19, 19, 19, 19, 19, 19, 20

Current Listings

https://prnt.sc/z5o4h8

Seller at 19 keys

23 days at 20 keys

20 days at 23 keys

Buyers at 17.4 keys

Concluding thoughts

Given only one sale at 20 keys, which is a rather old marketplace sale, as well as the 23 day unsold at 20 keys, I am inclined to not include that in the range. Buyers are now 17.4 keys where Offline sold for 18 keys earlier today.

Snapshots starting from 06/02/21:

https://gladiator.tf/listings/601ec9d3e4dc1f81c8d36e83

https://gladiator.tf/listings/601f2ad518bef699831ab742

https://gladiator.tf/listings/601f82490261554bf874501f

https://gladiator.tf/listings/601fb61fd9dbd1c1840f68ec

https://gladiator.tf/listings/601ffe58d4e419b3016ef734

https://gladiator.tf/listings/60203ea277cf30aa19135637

https://gladiator.tf/listings/60207722889a52969f70ed94

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6020b03d6fc2614d037d3933

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6020f34a73e5a8c62f08d009

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6021273ba532ff872107e7e5

https://gladiator.tf/listings/60215550d8e599df2c560164

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6021a7acc67db97812d48a83

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6021f384925b23f77c6ff8da

https://gladiator.tf/listings/60225ba7540f226f571b5e9b

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6022f23160525be7e3abe97b

https://gladiator.tf/listings/60230642370102d49a487cdc

https://gladiator.tf/listings/60230e9a887570e2bc14c55d

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6023435835a8671a4ac4cb08

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6023a7c48f59040d0a04101a

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6023f58b5bdcd2fd2ff18f6c

https://gladiator.tf/listings/602448c3d0e86e4d0ee206aa

https://gladiator.tf/listings/60248e05abb89607cddb5e62

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6024c8fdcdf3e7d506131b6d

https://gladiator.tf/listings/602507a7f9b694ef7a1acf69

https://gladiator.tf/listings/60257d2d498e8a8cd413f893

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6025980a909bc90f618fc2a2

https://gladiator.tf/listings/60259812213fafa2aabee214

https://gladiator.tf/listings/60259a99575d9c78e951d0a0

General trend that we can see is that sellers floated around 18 to 18.5 keys and were also unsold at that value for several days.

Any sale dumped for buy orders would round down to 17 keys in this instance.

Going with 17 - 19 keys here

Any and all criticism is appreciated