And I mulled over a thought when having my cereal

Item 1

https://backpack.tf/item/9229242612

Sale 1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198243128080#!/compare/1602806400/1606694400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1606608000/1606694400

Bulk for Scorching Flames Handyman's Handle

Sale 2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1606867200/1606953600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198052852471#!/compare/1606867200/1606953600

Sold for 14 keys 25 ref

Rounds down to 14 keys

Sale 3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198052852471#!/compare/1607126400/1607299200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066220061#!/compare/1607212800/1607299200

Sold for 15 keys 10 ref

Taking 15 keys

Sale 4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066220061#!/compare/1608508800/1608595200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071647163#!/compare/1608422400/1608768000

Bulk for Starstorm Insomnia Tough Stuff Muffs

Sale 5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071647163#!/compare/1608768000/1609718400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198155610749#!/compare/1608768000/1609718400

Sold for 15 keys

Item 2

https://backpack.tf/item/9115188508

Sale 6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199061710091#!/compare/1607731200/1607817600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199003987008#!/compare/1607731200/1607904000

Untrace

Sale 7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199003987008#!/compare/1607904000/1608163200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1607817600/1607904000

Untrace

Sale 8

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1607904000/1607990400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198450549876#!/compare/1607904000/1607990400

Untrace

Sale 9

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198450549876#!/compare/1607904000/1607990400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197999873164#!/compare/1607904000/1607990400

27 ref matches

Item 3

https://backpack.tf/item/8897020843

Sale 10

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198446177506#!/compare/1606780800/1606867200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198454615761#!/compare/1606780800/1606867200

4 keys 10.33 ref matches

Sale 11

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198454615761#!/compare/1607212800/1607299200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197968633696#!/compare/1606953600/1607299200

Untrace

Sale 12

Sold on MP

Item 4

https://backpack.tf/item/8077734629

Sale 13

Sold on MP

Item 5

https://backpack.tf/item/8054348463

Sale 14

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198244850542#!/compare/1607558400/1607817600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198216241727#!/compare/1607472000/1607558400

Sold for 14 keys 27 ref

Rounding up to 15 keys

Sale 15

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198216241727#!/compare/1608422400/1608508800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198024900894#!/compare/1608336000/1611532800

Untrace

Item 6

https://backpack.tf/item/8024168315

Sale 17

Untrace, seems to have been bought off marketplace then relisted which isn't possible so it probably got sold

Item 7

https://backpack.tf/item/7762322735

Sale 18

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199057103062#!/compare/1610150400/1610409600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199099101053#!/compare/1610323200/1610409600

Untrace

Sale 19

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199099101053#!/compare/1610409600/1610582400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198271119698#!/compare/1607385600/1611273600

Untrace

Sale 20

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198271119698#!/compare/1607385600/1611273600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198413175051#!/compare/1611187200/1611273600

Untrace

Sale 21

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198413175051#!/compare/1611446400/1611532800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198089666005#!/compare/1582416000/1613001600

Untrace

Item 8

https://backpack.tf/item/7749308678

Sale 22

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199102451836#!/compare/1606694400/1606780800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197993249868#!/compare/1605657600/1607299200

Untrace

Sale 23

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197993249868#!/compare/1605657600/1607299200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1607212800/1607299200

Untrace

Sale 24

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1607817600/1607904000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198154503544#!/compare/1607904000/1607990400

Untrace

Sale 25

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198154503544#!/compare/1607904000/1607990400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198879945899#!/compare/1607731200/1607904000

Untrace, nothing matches histories nor ids

Sale 26

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198879945899#!/compare/1609459200/1609545600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091502579#!/compare/1609372800/1609459200

Sold for 15 keys

Sale 27

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091502579#!/compare/1609459200/1609545600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198278982974#!/compare/1609372800/1611273600

Sold on MP

Sale 28

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198278982974#!/compare/1611619200/1612828800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199111291055#!/compare/1612742400/1612828800

Untrace

Sale 29

Moved off bot to owner

Item 9

https://backpack.tf/item/7693498700

Sale 30

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198369388540#!/compare/1608854400/1612483200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199084784906#!/compare/1608768000/1608854400

Was sale 62 here:

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/6025d6ccf3f12b5c7f44b0a5

Excluding on the basis that it was a qs.store item sale, meaning these were valued at buyers or so

Sale 31

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199084784906#!/compare/1608940800/1609027200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199098694108#!/compare/1608940800/1609027200

Untrace

Sale 32

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199098694108#!/compare/1611446400/1611532800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198156255538#!/compare/1611360000/1611532800

Sold for 16 keys

Sale 33

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198156255538#!/compare/1611532800/1611619200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198874598825#!/compare/1611532800/1611619200

Sold for 20 keys

Sale 34

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198874598825#!/compare/1612224000/1612310400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198092509893#!/compare/1612224000/1612310400

Sold for 18 keys

tem 10

https://backpack.tf/item/7688748963

Sale 35

Excluding trades with scammers

Sale 36

Excluding trades with tftrade.ru

Sale 37

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050518375#!/compare/1612742400/1612828800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1612742400/1612828800

Sold for 16 keys 5.33 ref

Taking 16 keys

Item 11

https://backpack.tf/item/7573401653

Sale 38

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198274070090#!/compare/1610582400/1610928000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199070403543#!/compare/1610496000/1610582400

Untrace

Sale 39

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199070403543#!/compare/1610668800/1610755200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199084784906#!/compare/1610668800/1610755200

Sold for 14 keys 7.44 ref

Taking 14 keys

Sale 40

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199085116273#!/compare/1610841600/1610928000

Likely a whitelist sale

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6004e27cf8b28dc2e0093ad7 - buyout 16 keys 28 ref

Rounding to 17 keys here, and taking with a large grain of salt

Sale 41

Sold on MP

Item 12

https://backpack.tf/item/6927490761

Sale 42

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050396742#!/compare/1611187200/1611360000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197966756586#!/compare/1611014400/1611187200

Backpack buy

Sale 43

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197966756586#!/compare/1611273600/1611360000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198158239708#!/compare/1589328000/1611705600

Untrace

Sale 44

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198158239708#!/compare/1589328000/1611705600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198139171368#!/compare/1611619200/1611705600

Bulk for Burning Flames Tundra Top

Item 13

https://backpack.tf/item/6772401852

Sale 45

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1606176000/1606262400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198164810644#!/compare/1605657600/1606867200

Untrace

Item 14

https://backpack.tf/item/4261581233

Sale 46

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198170169835#!/compare/1606262400/1607817600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055652472#!/compare/1567123200/1609027200

SCM

Sale 47

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055652472#!/compare/1609372800/1609459200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199101484822#!/compare/1609372800/1609459200

Bulk for Blizzardy Storm Killer's Kabuto

Sale 48

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199101484822#!/compare/1609372800/1609459200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091502579#!/compare/1609372800/1609459200

Sold for 15 keys

Sale 49

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091502579#!/compare/1609459200/1609545600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198009848533#!/compare/1609718400/1609891200

Sold on MP

Item 15

https://backpack.tf/item/4252319698

Sale 50

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197999873164#!/compare/1609632000/1609718400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198092046193#!/compare/1609718400/1609977600

Untrace

Item 16

https://backpack.tf/item/4222377323

Sale 51

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197976345859#!/compare/1606435200/1606521600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198105071091#!/compare/1606435200/1606521600

BP buy

Sale 52

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198105071091#!/compare/1606521600/1606608000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071247510#!/compare/1605744000/1613174400

Untrace

Item 17

https://backpack.tf/item/4213739172

Sale 53

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198832907585#!/compare/1604102400/1606435200

SCM

Sale 54

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198832907585#!/compare/1604102400/1606435200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091142935#!/compare/1602806400/1607040000

Untrace

Sale 55

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091142935#!/compare/1607040000/1607558400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1606953600/1607040000

Untrace

Sale 56

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1607299200/1607385600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198435381311#!/compare/1607299200/1607385600

Kill-a-Watt Toy Tailor matches

Low, excluding, probably missing stuff

Sale 57

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198435381311#!/compare/1608163200/1608249600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1608076800/1608163200

Untrace

Sale 58

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1608768000/1608854400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198930690607#!/compare/1608768000/1608854400

5 keys 2 ref matches

Sale 59

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198930690607#!/compare/1608854400/1609286400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198216241727#!/compare/1608768000/1608854400

Untrace

Sale 60

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198216241727#!/compare/1610150400/1610236800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198872002303#!/compare/1607558400/1611187200

2 keys match

Sale 61

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198872002303#!/compare/1611187200/1613174400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199114562759#!/compare/1608595200/1611187200

Scammed

Sale 62

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199114562759#!/compare/1608595200/1611187200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198167996672#!/compare/1611100800/1611187200

Dumped to scammer alt

Sale 63

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198167996672#!/compare/1611187200/1611273600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199085116273#!/compare/1611187200/1611273600

Untrace

Sale 64

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199085116273#!/compare/1611360000/1611446400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337961121#!/compare/1611100800/1611446400

Untrace

Sale 65

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337961121#!/compare/1611532800/1612656000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1611446400/1611532800

Untrace

Item 18

https://backpack.tf/item/7530108233

Sale 66

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198998384817#!/compare/1606003200/1606089600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198874905974#!/compare/1606003200/1606089600

Sold alongside 10 keys for Miami Nights Company Man

Use there

Sale 67

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198874905974#!/compare/1606176000/1606262400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198197374554#!/compare/1606176000/1606262400

~7.5 keys match

Low, excluding

Sale 68

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198197374554#!/compare/1606176000/1606262400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198381033764#!/compare/1606089600/1606262400

Sold alongside 2 keys for Searing Plasma Trucker's Topper

Update that

Sale 69

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198381033764#!/compare/1606348800/1606435200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198363395191#!/compare/1606348800/1606435200

Sold for 13 keys 43.55 ref

Taking 14 keys

Sale 70

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198363395191#!/compare/1606521600/1606608000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198207541888#!/compare/1606608000/1606867200

Untrace

Sale 71

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198207541888#!/compare/1608940800/1609372800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198096543717#!/compare/1608336000/1609804800

Untrace

Sale 72

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198096543717#!/compare/1612310400/1612396800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199104457222#!/compare/1612310400/1612396800

6 keys 4 ref matches

Sale 73

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199104457222#!/compare/1612656000/1612742400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198334860631#!/compare/1612656000/1612742400

Untrace

Sale 74

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198334860631#!/compare/1612656000/1612742400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199111291055#!/compare/1612656000/1612742400

https://prnt.sc/zdut63

Sold for 16 keys 0.44 ref

Taking 16 keys

Sale 75

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198172690987#!/compare/1612828800/1612915200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199102407070#!/compare/1612742400/1612828800

Sold for 16 keys 5.33 ref

Taking 16 keys

Sale 76

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199102407070#!/compare/1612915200/1613001600

Untrace

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6023f58dba106ceec5899ca7 - buyout of 18 keys

It probably was 18 keys since it was a whitelisted purchase.

However, I don't have concrete proof, excluding

Marketplace sales

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30658;5;u92

Nov 14th - $32.64 / $1.79 = 18.23 keys

Nov 20th - $20 / $1.75 = 11.43 keys

Nov 25th - $31.3 / $1.75 = 17.89 keys

Nov 26th - $31.3 / $1.75 = 17.89 keys

Dec 3rd - $30 / $1.76 = 17.05 keys

Dec 4th - $30 / $1.76 = 17.05 keys

Dec 9th - $30 / $1.78 = 16.85 keys

Dec 13th - $30 / $1.92 = 15.63 keys

Dec 14th - $30 / $1.96 = 15.31 keys

Dec 14th - $30 / $1.96 = 15.31 keys

Jan 1st - $39.99 / $2.13 = 18.77 keys

Jan 4th - $39.99 / $2.11 = 18.95 keys

Jan 5th - $39.99 / $2.12 = 18.86 keys

Jan 15th - $39.99 / $2.11 = 18.95 keys

Jan 22nd - $39.99 / $2.10 = 19.04 keys

Jan 22nd - $39.99 / $2.10 = 19.04 keys

Jan 22nd - $39.99 / $2.10 = 19.04 keys

Jan 24th - $35 / $2.10 = 16.67 keys

Feb 2nd - $44.99 / $2.10 = 21.42 keys

Mannco sales

https://mannco.store/item/8382

Both are clearly under buy orders

Dec 31st - $22

Jan 1st - $20

Excluding both of those

Sales

14, 15, 15, 4, 15, 15, 16, 20, 18, 16, 14, 17, 15, 5, 2, 7.5, 6, 16, 18, 11, 18, 18, 17, 17, 17, 16, 15, 15, 19, 19, 19, 19,19, 19, 19, 17, 21

Sales but ordered

2, 4, 5, 6, 7.5, 11, 14, 14, 15, 15, 15, 15, 15, 15, 15, 16,16, 16, 16, 17, 17, 17, 17, 17, 18, 18, 18, 18, 19, 19, 19, 19,19, 19, 19, 20, 21

Current Listings

https://prnt.sc/zdvwfk

Sellers range from 17 to 18.5 keys

Buyers are up to 16.1 keys

Concluding thoughts

All of the sales under 10 keys were probably missing parts of the trade so excluding those on that basis,

21 keys is the most recent marketplace sale where the user in question paid 18 keys for it most likely

16 keys resold for 20 keys which resold for 18 keys, excluding 20 keys on that basis.

This is a bit of a strruggle to price again considering most, if not all of the 19 key sales are from marketplace and I don't want to exclude them all from the range. At the same time, ranging from 15 - 19 keys isn't quite the most accurate given that buyers are 16.1 keys.

https://gladiator.tf/listings/601f2ad5dcb7d4caf6c19d59

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6020772248f1bbad3c89936b

https://gladiator.tf/listings/602155508be04fc5d7c77ff6

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6022f2322c1baadc25204968

https://gladiator.tf/listings/602448c4a4fab77ccfc994c5

https://gladiator.tf/listings/60257d2e1f1c5b01cfe8fc01

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6026ed75e167a009533556a5

https://gladiator.tf/listings/60281cd9b923c08e6bd69047

General trend for this past week was 18 keys until 4 days in when sellers dropped by another key to 17 key sellers.

With all of this considered:

15 - 19 takes into consideration all of the pure sales and marketplace sales. But 16 - 18 keys is more reflective of the current market.

Thanks to Shuffle and Blaze for helping me with the range!

Taking 16 - 18 keys here

Any and all criticism is appreciated!