https://prnt.sc/10mjrbd

Well, I'll call it motivation

Item 1

https://backpack.tf/item/9665488695

Sale 1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198123278876#!/compare/1611273600/1611360000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198837007652#!/compare/1611273600/1611360000

Not unusualified

Sale 2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198829669573#!/compare/1611619200/1611705600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198873854329#!/compare/1610841600/1611964800

Unusualified

Sale 3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198873854329#!/compare/1612483200/1612915200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1612396800/1612483200

2 ref matches

Sale 4

Seems to have been sold on MP then dumped to Criminal

Sale 5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197963500354#!/compare/1613779200/1613952000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198102194281#!/compare/1610668800/1614470400

Untrace

Item 2

https://backpack.tf/item/9173277068

Sale 6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198152750870#!/compare/1609200000/1609286400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198090573439#!/compare/1604534400/1610236800

Untrace

Item 3

https://backpack.tf/item/8922248117

Sale 7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198199092331#!/compare/1608422400/1608508800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053171686#!/compare/1608508800/1609372800

Untrace

Sale 8

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053171686#!/compare/1610582400/1611014400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1610496000/1610582400

5 keys 19.22 ref match

https://gladiator.tf/listings/5fff9566a2f6c39993461b1e - buy order was 2 keys 29.22 ref

I will assume bulk and multiple taunts sold

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6000d52688fa2af1316d4547 - keys were 52.88 ref

29.22/52.88 = 0.55

Taking as 2.55 keys

Sale 9

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1611014400/1611100800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199099521803#!/compare/1611100800/1611187200

Untrace

Sale 10

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199099521803#!/compare/1611014400/1611100800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1611014400/1611100800

Untrace

Item 4

https://backpack.tf/item/7647377215

Sale 11

Scammed then dumped

Excluding sales

Item 5

https://backpack.tf/item/7487887832

Sale 12

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1611360000/1611446400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198872324086#!/compare/1611360000/1611446400

5 keys match

Sale 13

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198872324086#!/compare/1611360000/1611446400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199085116273#!/compare/1611360000/1611446400

Untrace

Sale 14

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1615161600/1615248000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198997688179#!/compare/1615075200/1615248000

Bulk

Creepy Crawlies Taunt: Skullcracker

2 keys in ks weapons match

Excluding

Item 6

https://backpack.tf/item/7458676050

Sale 15

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198259074535#!/compare/1610064000/1610496000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198105406277#!/compare/1553817600/1610064000

Untrace

Sale 16

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198105406277#!/compare/1611446400/1611964800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198026968834#!/compare/1493596800/1614384000

Untrace

Item 7

https://backpack.tf/item/7425949060

Sale 17

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1608336000/1608422400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198219028529#!/compare/1607904000/1608422400

Untrace

Item 8

https://backpack.tf/item/6986336340

Sale 18

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197963621595#!/compare/1610755200/1614038400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198267189538#!/compare/1610668800/1610755200

BP Buy

Sale 19

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198267189538#!/compare/1613779200/1614038400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1613692800/1613779200

4 keys match

https://gladiator.tf/listings/603343fb137974b9a9cf17b8 - buy order is 3 keys 36.11 ref

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6033e565d5db96ff67b06637 - keys 51.55 ref

35.11/51.55 = 0.7 keys

3.7 keys here

Sale 20

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1614470400/1614556800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198418859914#!/compare/1614384000/1614556800

Untrace

Item 9

https://backpack.tf/item/6960486270

Sale 21

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198046461179#!/compare/1613260800/1614211200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080179568#!/compare/1613174400/1613260800

7 keys 18 ref matches

Seems like bulk

Item 10

https://backpack.tf/item/6369586749

Sale 22

Excluding loot.farm

Sale 23

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199001463141#!/compare/1609200000/1609459200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199084784906#!/compare/1609372800/1609459200

2 keys 44.88 ref

https://gladiator.tf/listings/5fefaafed52fca90042293ea - keys 53.66 ref

44.88/53.66 = 0.84 keys

Taking 2.85 keys

Sale 24

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199084784906#!/compare/1609372800/1609459200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198849768019#!/compare/1609372800/1609459200

Untrace

Sale 25

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198849768019#!/compare/1609977600/1610064000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198200139817#!/compare/1609891200/1609977600

1 key matches

Sale 26

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198200139817#!/compare/1609891200/1609977600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198984225109#!/compare/1609891200/1610064000

Untrace

Sale 27

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198984225109#!/compare/1609891200/1610064000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198376090319#!/compare/1609977600/1610064000

Untrace

Sale 28

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198376090319#!/compare/1610150400/1610236800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198271049443#!/compare/1585785600/1611100800

Untrace

Sale 29

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198271049443#!/compare/1611360000/1611878400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198983856237#!/compare/1611878400/1611964800

Untrace

Sale 30

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198983856237#!/compare/1614124800/1614556800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061836787#!/compare/1614470400/1614556800

Bulk

Item 11

https://backpack.tf/item/6311887074

Sale 31

Excluding tradeit, likely bought then dumped to buy order

Sale 32

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198283132487#!/compare/1610496000/1610582400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199075900625#!/compare/1610582400/1610668800

Untrace

Sale 33

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199075900625#!/compare/1610496000/1610582400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199087429668#!/compare/1610668800/1611964800

Not unusualified

Sale 34

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198033652856#!/compare/1611273600/1613001600

Unusualified, it came from ScrapTF item bot first

Item 12

https://backpack.tf/item/6273134236

Sale 35

Listed on Mannco

Item 13

https://backpack.tf/item/6261279949

Sale 36

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069707880#!/compare/1608681600/1608768000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198000091310#!/compare/1608595200/1608768000

Untrace

Sale 37

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198000091310#!/compare/1610582400/1610928000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850121720#!/compare/1610496000/1610582400

Untrace

Sale 38

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1611187200/1611273600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198218497692#!/compare/1611187200/1611273600

5 keys match

Professional Killstreak Half-Zatoichi - this also matches from qs.store bot

https://gladiator.tf/listings/600a3b520e82cbafdd257b9a - buyout 3 keys 51 ref

Hmm

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6009f5927344ed9d9ba9ae85 - keys 53.55 ref

51/53.55 = 0.95

Taking as 3.95 keys

Sale 39

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198218497692#!/compare/1611273600/1611360000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199102407070#!/compare/1611187200/1611273600

Untrace, I assume bulk for Hellfire Larrikin then subsequently dumped

Sale 40

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199102407070#!/compare/1611878400/1611964800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198032176942#!/compare/1611878400/1611964800

46 ref matches

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6014907d7af53f489b78899d - 3 keys 50 ref buyout

Eh, I guess 3.95 keys again?

Sale 41

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198032176942#!/compare/1611964800/1612137600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199013951917#!/compare/1588723200/1614297600

Untrace

Item 14

https://backpack.tf/item/6253380448

Sale 42

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198389139109#!/compare/1612828800/1613520000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199084784906#!/compare/1613433600/1613520000

Untrace

Sale 43

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199084784906#!/compare/1613433600/1613520000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198032176942#!/compare/1613433600/1613520000

Untrace

Item 15

https://backpack.tf/item/6252762790

Sale 44

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199106874758#!/compare/1609718400/1609977600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1609632000/1609718400

Untrace

Sale 45

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1610496000/1610582400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199107865875#!/compare/1610496000/1610582400

Untrace

Sale 46

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199107865875#!/compare/1611273600/1611360000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198872413599#!/compare/1611360000/1611532800

Sold for 4 keys

Marketplace sales

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1182;5;u3003

Jan 22nd - $9.99 / $2.10 = 4.76 keys

Jan 30th - $11.9 / $2.10 = 5.67 keys

Feb 7th - $11.9 / $2.13 = 5.59 keys

Feb 16th - $11.9 / $2.11 = 5.64 keys

Feb 17th - $11.9 / $2.11 = 5.64 keys

Mannco sales

https://mannco.store/item/3127

Jan 2nd - $15 / $1.85 = 8.11 keys

Sales

2.55, 5, 3.7, 2.85, 3.95, 3.95, 4, 4.75, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 8

Sales but ordered

2.55, 2.85, 3.7, 3.95, 3.95, 4, 4.75, 5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 8

Current Listings

https://prnt.sc/10mkbuk

Bot at 4.55 keys

7 months unsold for 5 keys

Buyers at 3.08/3.27 keys

Concluding thoughts

Well, excluding both 2.55 and 2.85 based off being below buy orders and actually being sold to buy orders.

All the 5.5 key sales are high mp sales based off whitelist.

Also 8 keys is definitely high with the 5 key unsold.

I guess I go 3.7 - 4.75 keys here