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Buyer creep
Item 1
https://backpack.tf/item/240555059
Sale 1
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061489334#!/compare/1617494400/1617580800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087543005#!/compare/1617494400/1617580800
It would appear that:
Smoking Surgeon's Stahlhelm - https://gladiator.tf/listings/606b2c65b78119b44f29aa59 - buyers 9 keys 14 ref at the time
Steaming Lucky Shot - https://gladiator.tf/listings/606b69e1f9438cb9b2fb8f6d - buyers 10 keys 3.44 ref at the time
Smoking Screamin' Eagle - https://gladiator.tf/listings/606b5518088d84b9c8520ad1 - buyers at 11 keys at the time
Blizzardy Storm German Gonzila - https://gladiator.tf/listings/606b662c1d5d15b9bd8ae3e0 - buyers 15 keys 26.11 ref at the time
All match
9 + 10 + 11 + 15 = 45 keys
https://gladiator.tf/listings/606ae8468d7faab03b1a4ceb - 45 key buyout
Caps at 45 keys
Item 2
https://backpack.tf/item/272841407
Sale 2
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198238170280#!/compare/1614729600/1615075200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199046064612#!/compare/1614297600/1614816000
Untrace
Sale 3
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199046064612#!/compare/1614297600/1614816000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198198091931#!/compare/1614729600/1614816000
Untrace
Sale 4
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198198091931#!/compare/1614816000/1615248000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198396499936#!/compare/1615075200/1615161600
Bulk
Sale 5
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198396499936#!/compare/1617321600/1617494400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198192867202#!/compare/1617321600/1617408000
Untrace kinda
Stuff got traded quickly
Sale 6
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198192867202#!/compare/1617408000/1617580800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198099685235#!/compare/1617408000/1617580800
Spider's Cluster War Paint (Battle Scarred) matches
Sale 7
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198099685235#!/compare/1621036800/1621123200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1621036800/1621123200
Untrace
Marketplace sales
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/323;5;u10
Apr 4th - $83.99 / $2.14 = 39.25 keys
Sales
45, 39
https://gladiator.tf/listings/606a3de402dd4faafea32b04 - given buyers at the time of the MP sale were ~36.5 keys
I'm going to run with 39 - 45 keys, there are 2 other sales here that should have been 40 keys+, Jesus Christ's sale and the more recent dump to qs.store
Buy orders above high-end now:
https://backpack.tf/stats/Unusual/German%20Gonzila/Tradable/Craftable/10
Sale at 62:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1621555200/1621641600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097816819#!/compare/1621555200/1621641600
Doesn't show on buyer's end but a lot of the clump of 62 have the buyer in their history, probably quicksold hats to bots / Erik then bought the PE.
Ouch yeah this is a struggle
https://gladiator.tf/listings/60a8ddd189a96762ca83576c - glad snapshot for reference on the 62 key sale
I am sort of weirded out that the buyer is now reselling for 65, they might end up lowering their price soon, who knows.
Will wait for a bit but it's relatively clear that this won't fly as is for the time being. Thanks ever so much for the comment
so buyers have creeped up to 49 keys and we also have a new sale at 62 keys but it seems a bit off to go 62 flat for this.
i think 45 - 62 will work here taking the lower sales into account.