Suggestion: Refined Metal at $0.02

I would also note that your 1.67 seller does not accept paypal, which I believe is the main way most people cash trade. I think the low-end proof is good, but going off one seller only isn't ideal.

If the $1.67 seller/value is invalidated, that just makes even less proof at including 3 cents. As for the $1.70 seller you provided, if keys are selling out fast at $1.70/3 cent refined value, then it's possible that those sales are outliers, or heavily outweighed by the abundance of lower sellers/sales. Of 2-3 pages of BPtf forums, there wasn't much to go off of above $1.65.

The value of the suggestion 2 cents flat is just because of rounding. The ref value is closer to 2.3-2.5 cents, which all rounds down to 2 cents regardless.

I mean that there may be many people who want to buy at 1.67, but can not because the seller does not take paypal - I personally would love to buy at 1.67, but moving money out of paypal into another system is pricy for non-americans.

This seller does take paypal at 1.66 https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/75702-selling-2000-keys-166-1000-tour-of-duty-ticketsbackpack-expanders-083-400-multi-class-crates-215-paypalzellecashappvenmo/

However I believe they've also sold out (not sure if that helps or hurts here).

-------------------

Tbh the sentiment I'm going for is just that we have a lot of proof of buyers, but very few of sellers. Rounding is also being very rough here.

You bought 400 keys at $1.70 then? Sales at $1.67 blow the rest out of the water in terms of volume, they should be included, and 400 keys sounds non-negligible at least. $1.67 is closer to $1.70 than the low-end, it's a hundredth of a cent difference between $0.0249 and $0.025, and 400 keys would push the average over $0.025. Range it maybe?

I can't range .025, backpack only lets me do 2 or 3 cents

Range of 2 to 3 cents. Cedarium bought 700 keys for over $0.025 per refined, Boreal put a 1000 key trade at $1.677(?) per key, $0.025 per refined. These round up to 3 cents, they should be included in a range

I've bought 600 at 1.7 and 100 at 1.68 in the last week or so, I just only put up a thread for 200 of them

1000 keys bought yesterday for 1.677 each

Paypal proof: https://imgur.com/a/2sPbWs7

Steam trade: https://imgur.com/a/ycwrwwx

This would be 1.677/66.83 = $0.02509 per refined which would round to $0.03

is very low rip

wouldn't a range from 0.02-0.03 be better?

There are close to no sales at 3 cents, if you have any, then please feel free to provide them. The only evidence at 3 cents is the 200 keys sold at $1.70 in less than a day.

well the same logic can be used on the 0.02 price as well. here are some 0.03 sales https://buff.163.com/goods/821686?from=market#tab=history

The same logic won’t be used in this situation because there is actually proof at 2 cents, while proof at 3 cents is few. Yes there are buff sales and even marketplace sales at 4 cents, but this is how refined suggestions are calculated and reviewed.

but just rounding down to 0.02 makes the price just as inaccurate as leaving it outdated at 0.03. this needs a range.

you sure you cant 0.02-0.03 range ? I all ready do one to see if I can

Can't wait for the half a cent range.

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/75702-selling-2000-keys-166-1000-tour-of-duty-ticketsbackpack-expanders-083-400-multi-class-crates-215-paypalzellecashappvenmo/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198014404374

Selling keys for $1.66, 1700 in the past week

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/79304-buying-keys-165-backpacks-with-cash-via-paypal-no-rep-needed-6000-in-stock-%F0%9F%92%B2/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198030343929

Buying keys for $1.65, 200 in past week

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/78610-buying-keys-164-and-backpacks-with-paypal/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198056681334

Buying for $1.64, 550 bought

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/79108-buying-tf2-keys-for-164-usd-usa-paypal-only/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198309612194

Previously was buying for $1.65, now buying for $1.64, 50 keys recently on trust page

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/77764-%F0%9F%92%B8selling-keys-~-171%F0%9F%92%B2-buying-keys-for-cash%F0%9F%92%B2-%F0%9F%A4%9D-trusted-trader%E2%9C%85-152trust%F0%9F%A4%9Dpaypalbankukcoinbasecashapprevolut%F0%9F%92%B3negotiable%F0%9F%92%AC/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198086948995

Selling keys for $1.71, 2000 in stock, has some sales in trust page recently

https://gyazo.com/89c4ef018e310644efd6b3ee3a51391c

https://gyazo.com/8d1a92225061efb0a3eb3ccb98be486d

https://gyazo.com/a00d7b10f29490ddfcceb1210560dbcb

130 keys for $1.64

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/79806-buying-279-keys-with-paypal-i-cover-all-fees-166/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198035332989

Bit on the older side, lot of success buying keys for $1.66

you cant do this to me…not when key/ref price just went up leading my bp value to go up too…….

that's gonna be 1.337 which is very low

As of right now, keys are ~67.39 refined https://gyazo.com/f6d156f9a434382d5297432e143d0187

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/46678-buying-tf2-keys-162-paypal-any-amount-up-to-10000-keys-reliable-bulk-purchases/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198091502579

Buying keys for $1.62, 500 keys in past week

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/75702-selling-2000-keys-166-1000-tour-of-duty-ticketsbackpack-expanders-083-400-multi-class-crates-215-paypalzellecashappvenmo/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198014404374

I've posted this thread before, but more sales at $1.66 since I last posted it

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/78666-selling-keys-167-usd-paypalcashapp/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198167002874

Selling keys for $1.67, 700/1600 in past week

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/79835-looking-to-buy-150-keys-via-paypal-164-usd/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198116801784

Bought 150/180 keys for $1.64

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/76871-buying-keys-160-each-buying-special-keys-ref-tools-backpacks-paypal-100-trust/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198031258757

I've also posted this thread before, but more buys at $1.60 since I last posted it

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/66342-buying-keys-for-165-paypal/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561197968633696

Buying keys for $1.65, 1000 bought in past week

$1.60 / 67.39 refined = 0.023 cents

$1.67 / 67.39 refined = 0.024 cents

The following threads have been posted in here already, but have since dropped their key buying price:

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/66342-buying-keys-for-163-paypal/

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/66758-wtb-buying-keys-for-157-usd-via-paypal400-rep/

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/76871-buying-keys-155-each-buying-special-keys-ref-tools-backpacks-paypal-100-trust/

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/76896-blazexth3rm4lx-is-buying-keys-for-156-usd-paypal/

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/68510-buying-keys-for-157-backpacks-via-paypal-400-rep/

Also, I know using Marketplace as proof isn't concrete evidence in the context of a refined suggestion, but the price of keys dropping on Marketplace is also a telltale sign of refined being too high

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6

Keys at a 6 cent drop over the past few days

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5002;6

Less sales of refined at 4 cents on Marketplace, already overpriced at 4 cents regardless but now less volume is being moved

As of right now, keys are ~67.39 refined https://gyazo.com/319a7a7fb8454398e131c46e04711d29

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/68510-buying-keys-for-157-backpacks-via-paypal-400-rep/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198032176942

https://gyazo.com/2179d670614fa071c213dbf1baae834b

https://gyazo.com/f2ea55f9b8b4756ed8b378ba9ec3800a

Changed price to $1.57 23 hours ago, has two trust noting sold keys within that time period

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/78666-selling-keys-165-usd-paypalcashapp/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198167002874

Selling keys for $1.65, 938 in stock at time of writing

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/75702-selling-2000-keys-163-1000-tour-of-duty-ticketsbackpack-expanders-083-400-multi-class-crates-215-paypalzellecashappvenmo/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198014404374

https://gyazo.com/a3123dc30710119328d71fe62331a4e4

Changed selling price to $1.63, their selling price was previous at $1.66 the three times it was mentioned in this suggestion

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/78280-buying-keys-158-backpacks-quicksells-via-paypalwise-140-trusts/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198056793885

Key buying price dropped from $1.64 to $1.58 from the last time it was mentioned in this suggestion

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/66342-buying-keys-for-160-paypal/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561197968633696

Key buying price dropped from $1.63 to $1.60 from the last time it was mentioned in this suggestion

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/79863-buying-keys-with-160-per-key-through-paypal/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198139171368

https://gyazo.com/257fb4d03250cf2df15347368ba1826f

Buying keys for $1.60, thread posted 18 hours ago and there is a trust stating 300 keys were sold 17 hours ago

$1.57 / 67.39 refined = $0.023 per refined

$1.65 / 67.39 refined = $0.024 per refined

Proof of anything rounding to 3 cents is quickly being countered by lower sales and sellers - If there is proof of it, it's heavily outweighed by everything else

I'm honestly struggling to understand why you think $.02 is better than $.02-03.

A range of 2-3 cents would value keys at $1.67 with current key/refined ratios, which is right in line with your key sales.

2 cents flat would result in a key price of $1.34, which is nowhere near your key sales.

You can see a range in action here: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5ff4f91df0cb933da6765c5a , where .03 was changed to .03-.04 even though basically all the sales would have rounded to .03. However, adding .04 to give a range of 3-4 cents, and giving an average of 3.5 cents, resulted in a more accurate price at the time than either 3 or 4 cents would. Easy.

So please, help me understand the issue with pricing refined at 2-3 cents. Refined would then be valued at 2.5 cents, resulting in a key price of $1.67, which is pretty much 100% in line with the sales you provided. But instead, you would honestly rather take 2 cents flat and have keys valued at $1.34, which is obviously much less accurate, as well as flatly contradicting your proof?

...what?

idk

Resug!

While there is no evidence of sales rounding to 3 cents, i do think we need a range here.

The discrepency between 0.024$ and 0.02$ scaled to entire backpacks to just too large.

You've collected sales at 0.023 to 0.025 $ and an average of 2.5 ct would be much more representitive than 2 ct flat.

I've done the same in this accepted suggestion, so idk why it shouldn't be done this way again.

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5ff4f91df0cb933da6765c5a

Boreal and Cedarium posted a 1000 key sale at $1.68 and 700 at $1.7, and there were thousands in sales at $1.67 the week this was suggested. Current sellers counter these sales in price but not volume. The minimum successful undercut to these is only by 2 cents per key, sales just yesterday https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/78666-selling-keys-165-usd-paypalcashapp/

Representing $1.65 - $1.7 gives an average over $0.025, rounding to $0.03, so there's actually no sense to not having a range here.

rip low tier trading

The split of evidence landing between 0.023 and 0.025 seems to indicate a range, or a 2.5 cent price is most appropriate

NOOOOOOooOOoOo not the hecking metalrinos

technically isnt this a 33% price reduction of metal so wouldnt everyones backpack drop a third ? XDDD

ref always go dump :d

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/61be2140ef939b58ad78326b

https://gyazo.com/cabf10158d17da2b11d3a2489d829b3a

Keys are currently ~67.94 refined

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/79898-selling-keys-157-cryptocoinbase-165-paypaltransferwisecashapp-%E2%9C%85-over-70-positive-trusts-no-rep-needed-for-crypto/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198094818081

Selling keys for $1.65 paypal, 200 keys in recent trust

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/68510-buying-keys-for-157-backpacks-via-paypal-400-rep/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198032176942

Buying keys for $1.57, has recent success in trust ratings

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/79876-buying-keys-161-each-paying-with-paypal-only/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561199006279039

Buying keys for $1.61, has recent success in trust ratings

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/78488-buying-keys-for-16-paypal/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198306145097

Buying keys for $1.60, has recent success in trust ratings

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/79906-looking-to-buy-~200-keys-at-160-per-key-paying-through-paypal/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198109986831

Buying 200 keys for $1.60, no trusts recently but looking at the comment in the thread, it looks like a trade may have been conducted

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/76896-blazexth3rm4lx-is-buying-keys-for-156-usd-paypal/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198061108999

Buying keys for $1.56, recent success in trust ratings

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/79907-buying-keys-at-160-each-paypal/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198318138402

Buying keys for $1.60, looks like 88 sold recently

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/78666-selling-keys-162-usd-paypalcashapp/

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198167002874

Selling keys for $1.62, recent success in trust ratings

$1.56 / 67.94 = $0.022 per refined

$1.67 / 67.94 = $0.024 per refined

Doesn't line up with reality, though. https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5002;6

Literal thousands of ref have been sold every day at 4 cents.

Every day you have more ref sold at 5 cents than under 4 cents.

Here they sell at 3 cents. Still over 2 cents https://mannco.store/item/440-refined-metal Volume is lower than in mp.tf though

Refined is not actually priced based on sales of refined. It's based on sales of keys. It's done that way because of the way the site is coded; literally every price value on the site is based on the refined price--so if an item is worth 10 keys, and keys are priced at 69 refined, the site prices the item as

690 * refined price.

So, if refined metal was priced at $.04 because individual refined metal is selling at that price, you might think that would work. However, since keys are priced at almost 67 refined, the site would then value keys at $2.66, which is clearly absurd when they are moving for ~$1.80 on MP and for less elsewhere.

In other words, refined price sometimes has to be different than what it actually sells for, in order to make the site's values be correct in the real world.

It looks to me like most objections come from people who don't understand how the ref is priced. I didn't understand before reading your comment either. Thanks for the explanation!

https://backpack.tf/trust/76561198064658655

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/79918-i-am-selling-tf2-keys-for-paypal-at-166-each/

https://gyazo.com/67801f4decc68c37f2138964a20cfd28

https://gyazo.com/6701f536902c008b0d944c9ce791ff85

https://gyazo.com/8f1fd61a95ea3bb567e6f3c5278243b3

https://gyazo.com/e8da38ed3760535abc01137cf5ff2053

https://gyazo.com/b60771c6e858d703bc1e2f3402f7b969

https://gyazo.com/0e7bcd8e59a97387d1c123ff759e2845

https://gyazo.com/d8db23cf5cfb8e00b5b85b4d81713973

https://gyazo.com/a4e6fef0b998719335597c95d5da10f5

been selling keys for $1.65-$1.69 with decent success

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/78523-i-am-buying-tf2-keys-for-paypal-at-158-each/

https://gyazo.com/107858468dc15dfa0b65cacd48d9144b

https://gyazo.com/abbe94914ba674ec5befa26b1a7b263a

https://gyazo.com/330d1a88582c146219eadeccaa0881c7

been buying keys for $1.58-$1.60 with decent success

Leaving a similar comment on both suggestions here:

This is a very rare case where the rounding forced upon the suggester by rule (or in this case by the amount of decimal places you can specify) causes an offset far larger than the general margin of error we consider acceptable. Normally we would have resorted to changing the precision to 3 decimal places, but as of now, that is not possible. I have requested the ability to do so, but since that is not quite there yet, we will have to do with makeshift solutions that provide us with the most accurate values.

In this case, it is clear that the common trading point revolves around 2.5 cents, and the reason this suggestion leans towards 2 cents flat is because according to conversions used, the sales would all round down. Only a very slight change in conversion would've resulted in that being 3 cents flat, and it is obvious that such a small difference should not warrant a 50% margin of error here (compared to the 3 cents it would be with a 'more favorable' conversion, or 25% compared to what it should realistically be), especially not if the range here only yields a ~5% margin of error (compared to the 0.024-0.025 this could or should probably have been, had we had the means to do so). Rounding should never be the reason the suggested value is so significantly out of bounce.

Therefore I'm going to accept the other suggestion here as its suggested value most closely resembles the value of refined at this time.