Suggestion: Death at Dusk Spook Specs at 130–155 keys

Price Suggestion

~230 keys

d@d

2 votes up

10 votes down

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This suggestion was closed Tue, 27 Jun 23 00:10:34 +0000 by the submitter.

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Comments

Building off of the previous suggestion - but providing evidence! I don't have access to look at history of all the specs in existence so I'm going off the one I know exists.

Item 1: https://backpack.tf/item/8605614068

Trade 1: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198316130764#!/compare/1686700800/1686873600

Between 2023/06/14 and 2023/06/16, these specs were traded for:

- Starstorm Slumber Pickel (outdated price of 16, buyorders were@20, sellorders were@40(current owner of specs))

- MG hot dogger (outdated price of 86-89, buyorders were@73.35(gladiator bot), sellorders were@135(current owner of specs))

[edit looking at classifieds snapshots, the trade must have took place 2023/06/16 b/c current owner of spooks had listing up on 06/16.]

This gives a lower bound of 93.35 and an upper of 175. It is likely the previous suggester, who is the former owner in this trade, thought the actual value of the trade was 155. They were also willing to provide a lower range when making their suggestion (https://backpack.tf/suggestion/64884a37157e1b729d0e5381) after the trade.

Arithmetic mean of bounds gives 134.2 keys - so I'll give a range from 130-155 based on numeric info from the trade and info gleaned from the suggestion made around the same time.

If someone with more access can find more item histories for the specs, including older sales between 6mo ago and the 2nd most recent suggestion 3yrs ago for additional context, please help me update my suggestion. ty

You would have to find more sales for both the hats you listed:

https://backpack.tf/stats/Unusual/Hot%20Dogger/Tradable/Craftable/89

https://backpack.tf/stats/Unusual/Platinum%20Pickelhaube/Tradable/Craftable/110

You also shouldn't range based off one sale.

More sales here though:

Item 1

https://backpack.tf/item/8605614068

Sale 1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199111073161#!/compare/1686528000/1686614400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198316130764#!/compare/1686182400/1686614400

14 keys match ID

The histories of:

Morning Glory Handyman's Handle

Vicious Circle Highway Star

Max's Severed Head

Stormy Storm Neckwear Headwear

Strange Killstreak Festive Flare Gun

Strange Bushman's Bristles

Strange Professional Killstreak Australium Axtinguisher

all match going from Piter Pałka Jebałka to Harry qs.store bot.

The way qs.store works is that the items are valued at buyers more or less at the time since qs.store is a trade site.

This typically leads to sales capping at the pure buyout at the time which in this case is a little hard to find due to gladiator.tf snapshots becoming redundant.

This sale will be hard to use.

Sale 2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198316130764#!/compare/1686700800/1686873600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074019114#!/compare/1686787200/1686873600

Both compare links for the sale you provided. You will have to find minis for that as said above.

Honestly, given that the Slumber Pickel got dumped to a bot I'm not sure if it will be that high of a sale - https://backpack.tf/item/5189891072

Item histories for Hot Dogger:

https://backpack.tf/item/10442888761

https://backpack.tf/item/3570424305

Item 2

https://backpack.tf/item/12368492656

Sale 3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198188639765#!/compare/1682899200/1683072000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198867208675#!/compare/1682899200/1682985600

135 keys pure

Sale 4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198867208675#!/compare/1683676800/1683849600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107249245#!/compare/1683763200/1683849600

132 keys match? You might have to add but purely based off the compare links it looks like 132 keys flat which is a bit weird.

Conclusion

Sale 1 is unusable

Sale 2 requires minis

You can then range this from whatever value Sale 2 comes out to - 135 and this will then be fine.

Don't know how you got those numbers specifically for sale 3 & 4, but helpful nonetheless. Teach me your wizardry :D

I started the minis by listing highest buy orders and lowest sell orders on the date of sale - but you're right that I should've done more work on that. I'll look into it and re-suggest with findings.

That said, it looks like the 134.2 I got from the mean was a very good guess based on 3 and 4.

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/79020-guide-how-to-make-an-unusual-price-suggestion-2021-edition/

Here's a guide I wrote back in 2021. Not much has changed aside from the parts relevant to gladiator.tf

It will explain your first question.

As for minis, highest buy order and lowest sell order doesn't really show much. You sort of lucked out on your "mean" being a good guess this time round.

Good luck in remaking the suggestion

I'm going to close this suggestion and after trying my hands at the minis I'll remake the suggestion. Thanks for the help! The pickel and hot dogger hists will be very useful.