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Take 3. aj helped in the previous suggestion, and K1ng pointed out a change that needed to be made. Also found a new sale.
Item 1
https://backpack.tf/item/8605614068
Sale 1
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199111073161#!/compare/1686528000/1686614400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198316130764#!/compare/1686182400/1686614400
Unusable
Sale 2
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198316130764#!/compare/1686700800/1686873600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074019114#!/compare/1686787200/1686873600
Needs minis for the Starstorm Plat Pickel and MG Hot Dogger. Wasn't able to complete them given the item histories provided by aj, so unusable. Even if it was, appears to be a low sale. Pickel was dumped to a bot quickly after.
Sale 3 (new sale)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074019114#!/compare/1688515200/1688774400
Can't find buyer side inv history, but was able to get a screenshot from seller to confirm:
https://steamuserimages-a.akamaihd.net/ugc/2029483306290755027/9917529785040B4888D911D831038980EFFC3805/
125 flat, confirmed with seller that this was a quicksell.
Item 2
https://backpack.tf/item/12368492656
Sale 4
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198188639765#!/compare/1682899200/1683072000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198867208675#!/compare/1682899200/1682985600
135 keys pure
Sale 5
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198867208675#!/compare/1683676800/1683849600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107249245#!/compare/1683763200/1683849600
At first it looked like 132 flat - but King pointed out the collector's wrap assassin was bought with 48 keys from the sale on the same day:
-- 180 keys go from 3p to buyer - split in this fashion:
--- 132 keys end up with seller, separately from wrap.
--- 48 keys go from buyer 'directly' to seller of the wrap - this indicates either the wrap or the 48 were used in the specs sale.
-- The wrap goes from seller of the wrap to seller of the specs.
180 keys
Conclusion:
Sales 1&2 are unusable
Sale 3 at 125, but quicksell.
Sale 4 at 135
Sale 5 at 180
So, we have 135-180. Big thanks to aj - the scripts in particular were very helpful.
Let's see:
- Buyers were @80 when it sold for 125 and it was listed for a while, so it doesn't look like a quicksale.
https://next.backpack.tf/classifieds/snapshots/Death%20at%20Dusk%20Spook%20Specs/64a81af3d0df4b578808c1a7
- Sale 2 will be under 120. MG Dogger sold for 85 keys here and SS Pickel is unsold at 36:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199125443371#!/compare/1686614400/1686700800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074019114#!/compare/1686441600/1686700800
https://next.backpack.tf/classifieds/snapshots/Starstorm%20Slumber%20Platinum%20Pickelhaube/64b2497353ef3b129901a10c
So there are sales at <120, 125, 135, 180.
Given the context, 180 looks like an outlier. 120 can't be used without a proper mini for the SS Pickel, so 125-135 seems reasonable now.
I wasn't able to do the minis for the dogger and pickel. I can't see how that dogger sale is usable either, but I agree that it's under 120. 180 feels like an outlier but there is evidence to back it up as a legitimate sale; as a data scientist I'd need to see a few more sales before I can say it is an outlier (but I will conduct an outlier test before I make a new sug).
Using a grubbs test for outliers, it is likely that the 180 is an outlier, although I need to see more sales to confirm it's removal from the suggestion. Having only 4 sales to go off of it is hard to say. 125-135 is evidenced well, so I will resugg with that amount and the additional information provided, thank you K1ng for the assistance.