Using last 2 months.

The Sale:

Sold for 2 keys + 11.33 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197969670450#!/compare/1700524800/1701648000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199057187154#!/compare/1701561600/1701648000

https://backpack.tf/item/6254307628

= ~2.2 keys

Other sales:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199084784906#!/compare/1698969600/1699056000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198881093314#!/compare/1699142400/1700006400

https://backpack.tf/item/6269586364

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199061291714#!/compare/1702598400/1702684800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199148129063#!/compare/1702598400/1702684800

https://backpack.tf/item/7451791000

Bulk/untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199209239348#!/compare/1697587200/1697673600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198890990852#!/compare/1697500800/1697587200

https://backpack.tf/item/12856238146

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/item/9642570998 - various unimportant/untraceable bot trades

https://backpack.tf/item/12138760060 - moved to mannco

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199174859865#!/compare/1700524800/1700611200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198806752077#!/compare/1700438400/1700524800

https://backpack.tf/item/12782159904

Bulk for keys? Spelled Gallon involved.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198806752077#!/compare/1701129600/1701820800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198890990852#!/compare/1701820800/1701907200

https://backpack.tf/item/12782159904

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1699833600/1699920000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199108134313#!/compare/1699833600/1699920000

https://backpack.tf/item/12489547432

Untraceable

Gladiator.tf sales:

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Silver%20Cyclone%20Taunt:%20The%20Soviet%20Strongarm&at=2023-11-14T07:34:40.576Z

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Mann%20Co.%20Supply%20Crate%20Key&at=2023-11-13T07:34:40.576Z - keys were ~61 ref at the time

2 keys + 19.44 ref, around November 13th. Keys were ~62.5 ref

= ~2.3 keys

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Silver%20Cyclone%20Taunt:%20The%20Soviet%20Strongarm&at=2023-11-12T07:34:40.576Z

Not gonna find the average key sale at the time of this sale, it'll fit into the range. Same for the following two sales.

2 keys + 16.22 ref, around November 11th

= ~2.25 keys

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Silver%20Cyclone%20Taunt:%20The%20Soviet%20Strongarm&at=2023-10-28T07:34:40.576Z

2 keys + 14.66 ref, around October 27th

= ~2.25 keys

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Silver%20Cyclone%20Taunt:%20The%20Soviet%20Strongarm&at=2023-10-18T07:34:40.576Z

2 keys + 13.11 ref, around October 18th

= ~2.2 keys

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30844;5;u3009

$5.66, October 29th (2x)

$5.66, November 4th

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6

Keys were:

$1.84 on October 29th

$1.8 on November 4th

5.66/1.84 = ~3.1

5.66/1.8 = ~3.15

Sellers:

https://imgur.com/a/gy7a8kC

https://backpack.tf/item/6254307628 - 2 keys + 33.44 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/9642570998 - 2 keys + 34.11 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/10598908338 - 2 keys + 45 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/12856238146 - 2 keys + 51.33 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/8363578600 - 3 keys

Sales at:

2.2 (2x)

2.25 keys (2x)

2.3

3.1 (marketplace)

3.15 (marketplace)

Seller at 3 is a year old. The marketplace sales are being excluded.

Taking 2.2-2.3 keys.