Using last 2 months.

Sale 1:

Sold for 6 keys + half a key in metal

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199203269599#!/compare/1700265600/1700352000 - Near ID: 13813027952

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199111292616#!/compare/1700265600/1700352000

https://backpack.tf/item/3410555657

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20Pool%20Party&at=2023-11-20T02:22:50.843Z - most likely one of the 6 keys + 30.77 ref sales.

The keys and metal are mixed with other keys and metal in the first compare link. The correct items are at the bottom of large mix of keys and metal.

= 6.5 keys

Sale 2:

Sold for 6 keys + 30.77 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199186561021#!/compare/1700265600/1700352000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198145331385#!/compare/1700265600/1700352000

https://backpack.tf/item/12946111465

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20Pool%20Party&at=2023-11-20T02:16:49.095Z

The buyer here doesn't appear in the taunt's history, but it's quite clear that it sold for this amount. Looks like it got gambled afterwards.

= 6.5 keys

Sale 3:

Sold for 6 keys + 30.88 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199199747687#!/compare/1700265600/1700352000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198145331385#!/compare/1700265600/1700352000

https://backpack.tf/item/10286567769

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20Pool%20Party&at=2023-11-20T02:22:50.843Z

Exact same situation as the sale above. Gambled afterwards.

= 6.5 keys

Sale 4:

Sold for 6 keys + 32.88 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1700092800/1700179200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199202627297#!/compare/1698969600/1700438400

https://backpack.tf/item/3390842058

= 6.5 keys

Other Sales:

#1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199161916038#!/compare/1700524800/1700611200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198167768981#!/compare/1700611200/1700697600

https://backpack.tf/item/12946111465

Untraceable

#2

SCM

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198982612942#!/compare/1696982400/1701734400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198229066336#!/compare/1701561600/1702339200

https://backpack.tf/item/11412220255

Too many sales around the same date on the SCM to determine what exactly it sold for.

#3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199107865875#!/compare/1699747200/1699833600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198170882570#!/compare/1699747200/1699833600

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20Pool%20Party&at=2023-11-14T02:22:50.843Z - labelled as 7 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/11407782606

Untraceable

#4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198170882570#!/compare/1702252800/1703635200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1703548800/1703635200

https://backpack.tf/item/11407782606

Untraceable. 3 keys + half a key in metal match. Most likely was 5.5 or 6.5, but can't confirm.

#5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199197624825#!/compare/1698796800/1698883200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199132184792#!/compare/1698796800/1698883200

https://backpack.tf/item/6503107574

Untraceable.

#6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199132184792#!/compare/1698883200/1698969600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198873850443#!/compare/1687478400/1702080000

https://backpack.tf/item/6503107574

Untraceable.

#7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197999873164#!/compare/1700265600/1700352000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198145331385#!/compare/1700352000/1700265600

https://backpack.tf/item/3542218329

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20Pool%20Party&at=2023-11-20T02:22:50.843Z

Same situation as sales 2 and 3. This one I can't confirm sold for the listed amount (though it is extremely likely)

Ignoring the gambling afterwards.

#8

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198287942889#!/compare/1700352000/1700438400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199111073161#!/compare/1700352000/1700438400

https://backpack.tf/item/3542218329

Untraceable

#9

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199111073161#!/compare/1700611200/1700697600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198051593311#!/compare/1699488000/1700784000

https://backpack.tf/item/3542218329

Untraceable

#10

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199110809353#!/compare/1700265600/1700352000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199203269599#!/compare/1700265600/1700352000

https://backpack.tf/item/3410555657

Untraceable

#11

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199111292616#!/compare/1700438400/1700524800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199183171982#!/compare/1700438400/1700524800

https://backpack.tf/item/3410555657

Untraceable

#12

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199202627297#!/compare/1701043200/1701561600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1700956800/1701043200

https://backpack.tf/item/3390842058

Untraceable

#13

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1702944000/1703030400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097232731#!/compare/1702944000/1703030400

https://backpack.tf/item/3390842058

Bulk for keys

#14

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097232731#!/compare/1703116800/1703203200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198890990852#!/compare/1703116800/1703203200

https://backpack.tf/item/3390842058

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/item/13431968121 - mannco/wasn't unusual at time of trades

https://backpack.tf/item/11522476441 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/7001787528 - wasn't unusual at time of trade

https://backpack.tf/item/3626885013 - wasn't unusual at time of trades

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30570;5;u3003

$14.44, November 9th

$13.99, December 15th

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6

Keys were:

$1.74, November 9th

$1.73, December 15th

14.44/1.74 = ~8.3, rounds to 8.5

13.99/1.73 = ~8.08, rounds to 8

Unconfirmed Gladiator sales:

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20Pool%20Party&at=2023-12-14T03:12:26.034Z - December 14th

7 keys + 54.11 (~8 keys)

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20Pool%20Party&at=2023-11-20T03:14:31.082Z - November 20th

6 keys + 29 ref (~6.5 keys, 3x)

6 keys + 30.77 ref (~6.5 keys). See #7

7 keys

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20Pool%20Party&at=2023-11-14T02:22:50.843Z - November 14th

7 keys (See #3)

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20Pool%20Party&at=2023-11-03T03:14:31.082Z - November 3rd

5 keys + 22 ref (~5.5 keys)

6 keys + 33.44 ref (~6.5 keys)

Sellers:

https://imgur.com/a/2hktUup

https://backpack.tf/item/5491114628 - 7 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/11650004884 - 7 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7001787528 - 7 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/11297240877 - ~7.85 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/3390842058 - ~8.9 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/3626885013 - ~12.5 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/3868096582 - 13 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/12930762088 - 13 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/9016207447 - marketplace

Sales at:

6.5 (4x)

8 (marketplace)

8.5 (marketplace)

Unconfirmed gladiator sales at:

5.5

6.5 (5x)

7 (2x)

8

Sellers at 7 keys indicate that anything higher than 7 is too high. Excluding the marketplace sales at 8 and 8.5.

I was told to only use proofless gladiator sales if there are at least 3 sales at the same price. However, there are a fair amount of sales higher than 7 keys that are already being excluded, and taking a flat price of 6.5 keys isn't going to be the best idea here. I will add 7 keys to the range for now. I will, however, be excluding the 5.5 key sale, as it's the only unconfirmed sale at that price.

Taking 6.5-7 keys.