Sale 1:

Sold for 5 keys + 34.11 ref (rounds to 5.5)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1728000000/1728086400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093765664#!/compare/1727913600/1728345600

https://backpack.tf/item/9016207447

= 5.5 keys

Sale 2:

Sold for 5 keys (Buyer’s end)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199533520519#!/compare/1723680000/1723766400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112277446#!/compare/1723766400/1723852800

https://backpack.tf/item/12478369995

= 5 keys

Other Sales:

#1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198181062182#!/compare/1723852800/1723939200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198421652838#!/compare/1723766400/1723852800

https://backpack.tf/item/14117500934

Untraceable, some metal matches

#2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198421652838#!/compare/1725753600/1725840000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198059605524#!/compare/1725753600/1725926400

https://backpack.tf/item/14117500934

Untraceable

#3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198064234453#!/compare/1729555200/1731369600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1729468800/1729555200

https://backpack.tf/item/14034957425

Untraceble

#4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112277446#!/compare/1726617600/1726704000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1726617600/1726704000

https://backpack.tf/item/12478369995

Untraceable

#5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850121720#!/compare/1723766400/1723852800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198152024758#!/compare/1722816000/1726790400

https://backpack.tf/item/11649680814

9 keys match, likely bulk

#6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198294800543#!/compare/1726617600/1726704000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198421652838#!/compare/1726444800/1726704000

https://backpack.tf/item/9222784407

Untraceable

#7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198192632255#!/compare/1727395200/1728259200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1727308800/1727395200

https://backpack.tf/item/9016207447

Untraceable, some metal matches.

#8

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1728000000/1728086400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1728000000/1728086400

https://backpack.tf/item/9016207447

Untraceable

#9

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198292302282#!/compare/1725235200/1725926400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197966756586#!/compare/1725753600/1725926400

https://backpack.tf/item/5194224889

Backpack buy

#10

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198128205504#!/compare/1728432000/1728604800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198193246751#!/compare/1728086400/1729555200

https://backpack.tf/item/3738481942

SCM

#11

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197978024565#!/compare/1728950400/1729036800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198261483133#!/compare/1728950400/1729036800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198077691964#!/compare/1728950400/1729036800

https://backpack.tf/item/3349110564

Untraceable, probably a backpack buy

#12

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198077691964#!/compare/1730246400/1730332800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197978024565#!/compare/1730073600/1730332800

https://backpack.tf/item/3349110564

Some continuation of the above backpack transfers

#13

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198273489288#!/compare/1724803200/1725148800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199183171982#!/compare/1724889600/1724976000

https://backpack.tf/item/3289950268

Backpack buy

https://backpack.tf/item/3280282756 - transferred between accounts

https://backpack.tf/item/9464398831 - marketplace

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30570;5;u3003

$13.99, August 19th & September 15th

$8.99, November 8th

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6 - keys were:

$1.84, August 19th

$1.89, September 15th

$1.84, November 8th

13.99/1.84 = 7.603, rounds to 7.5

13.99/1.89 = 7.402, rounds to 7.5

8.99/1.84 = 4.886, rounds to 5

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/9YxHqwc.png

https://backpack.tf/item/11522476441 - ~5.5 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/12478369995 - ~5.5 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/9222784407 - ~5.5 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/12855563555 - ~5.9 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/3276028521 - 6 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/5491114628 - ~7.9 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/11272069890 - 13 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/11143952840 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/3289950268 - marketplace

Sales at:

5 (3x, 1 marketplace)

5.5

7.5 (2x, marketplace)

Sellers way below 7.5, excluding 7.5.

Taking 5-5.5.