Sale 1:

Sold with negligible metal for 4 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1706140800/1706227200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198138707710#!/compare/1706227200/1706313600

https://backpack.tf/item/6258519528

= 4 keys

Sale 2:

Sold for 3 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197999873164#!/compare/1706659200/1706745600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198136744617#!/compare/1706486400/1706659200

https://backpack.tf/item/6904776694

= 3 keys

Sale 3:

Sold for 2 keys + 30 ref (~0.45 keys)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198993596887#!/compare/1706313600/1706400000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197999873164#!/compare/1706313600/1706400000

https://backpack.tf/item/6904776694

= 2.45 keys

Other Sales:

#1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199446524295#!/compare/1703289600/1703376000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1703289600/1703376000

https://backpack.tf/item/13824041459

Untraceable

#2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1705363200/1705449600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120107112#!/compare/1702684800/1705449600

https://backpack.tf/item/13824041459

Untraceable

#3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198138707710#!/compare/1705968000/1706054400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198983856237#!/compare/1705968000/1706054400

https://backpack.tf/item/11926459734

Untraceable

#4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198890409949#!/compare/1701993600/1702252800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199132627345#!/compare/1702166400/1702252800

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20The%20Russian%20Arms%20Race&at=2023-12-12T09:36:36.426Z - labelled as 2 keys + 23.88 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/11010085663

Untraceable

#5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198166495399#!/compare/1705276800/1706832000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199132184792#!/compare/1706659200/1706745600

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20The%20Russian%20Arms%20Race&at=2024-02-02T09:37:39.796Z - labelled as 2 keys + 30.66 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/10682764863

Untraceable, 29 ref matches.

#6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198306329136#!/compare/1705708800/1706140800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199111073161#!/compare/1705968000/1706054400

https://backpack.tf/item/10327590691

Bulk for keys

#7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198377006264#!/compare/1705795200/1705968000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1705881600/1705968000

https://backpack.tf/item/6258519528

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/item/12491752339 - gambled or otherwise unusable

https://backpack.tf/item/6994896368 - mannco

https://backpack.tf/item/6478572246 - gambled

https://backpack.tf/item/6259959989 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/12081632852 - gambled/scammer sales

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30843;5;u3003

$7.99, December 9th, December 29th, Jan 11th, Jan 15th, Jan 19th, and Jan 22nd

These sales end up being around ~4.5 keys, which is quite a bit higher than what this item has been selling for in keys. Should be fine to exclude them.

Unconfirmed Gladiator Sales:

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20The%20Russian%20Arms%20Race&at=2024-02-02T09:37:39.796Z - ~Feb 2nd

2 keys + 30.66 ref (~2.5 keys), seen in #5

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20The%20Russian%20Arms%20Race&at=2023-12-24T09:37:39.796Z - ~December 24th

2 keys + 22.44 ref (~2.35 keys)

https://backpack.tf/item/12081632852 - may have involved a scammer

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20The%20Russian%20Arms%20Race&at=2023-12-12T09:37:39.796Z - ~December 12th

2 keys + 23.88 ref (~2.35 keys), seen in #4

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20The%20Russian%20Arms%20Race&at=2023-12-06T09:37:39.796Z - ~December 6th

3 keys + 3 ref (~3.05 keys)

Sellers:

https://imgur.com/a/vAGTCS8

https://backpack.tf/item/6252914249 - ~3.15 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/10037654093 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/10327590691 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/12081632852 - marketplace

Sales at:

2.45

3

4

Lots of support for a low end of ~2.45 keys, with the gladiator purchases around that price.

Was originally planning on excluding 4 from the range, but it wouldn't look great with all the marketplace sales already being excluded. Will keep 4 in the range, but if we get more sellers around 3 keys, 4 will have to be excluded.

Taking 2.45-4 keys.