Checked last 3 months.

The Sale:

Sold for 4 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199084784906#!/compare/1706659200/1706745600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199069442401#!/compare/1706659200/1706832000

https://backpack.tf/item/7670809198

= 4 keys

Other Sales:

#1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198168578115#!/compare/1704326400/1704412800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199177136435#!/compare/1704499200/1704585600

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Screaming%20Tiger%20Taunt:%20The%20Soviet%20Strongarm&at=2024-01-08T05:30:22.263Z - Labelled as 4 keys + 30.44 or 30.55 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/12104285479

Untraceable

#2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086011812#!/compare/1703980800/1704153600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198362455518#!/compare/1706227200/1706745600

https://backpack.tf/item/8605815173

Untraceable. Probably marketplace.

#3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198360689424#!/compare/1704326400/1704412800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199108134313#!/compare/1704240000/1704326400

https://backpack.tf/item/6611288190

Untraceable

#4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199232890854#!/compare/1702684800/1708992000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1703462400/1703548800

https://backpack.tf/item/12104285479

Untraceable

#5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1703635200/1703721600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198168578115#!/compare/1703635200/1703721600

https://backpack.tf/item/12104285479

Sold for 4 keys + 2 ref?

I feel like a lot more ref would've been involved, considering gladiator claims bots were buying these for ~4.5 keys at the time. Regardless, doesn't change the range here.

#6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198035664616#!/compare/1702857600/1702944000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199139201343#!/compare/1702857600/1702944000

https://backpack.tf/item/11336419259

Transferred to bot, looks like

#7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199139201343#!/compare/1703462400/1703548800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198028759242#!/compare/1703548800/1703635200

https://backpack.tf/item/11336419259

Untraceable, probably bulk.

#8

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199086687108#!/compare/1703376000/1706313600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1705881600/1705968000

https://backpack.tf/item/11084724524

Untraceable

#9

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199099521803#!/compare/1703462400/1703548800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199125348079#!/compare/1703462400/1703548800

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Screaming%20Tiger%20Taunt:%20The%20Soviet%20Strongarm&at=2023-12-27T05:30:22.263Z - labelled as 3 keys + 57.77 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/8308526857

#10

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198403404710#!/compare/1701302400/1701388800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198244962432#!/compare/1701302400/1701388800

https://backpack.tf/item/7041364710

Bulk for Autumn Leaves Strongarm. Shouldn't be used on either item, looking at the Autumn Leaves one.

https://backpack.tf/item/13933974885 - unusualified

Sellers:

https://imgur.com/a/ouJqM8S

https://backpack.tf/item/8308526857 - 4 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/11336419259 - 4 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/11084724524 - ~4.4 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7161425696 - ~4.75 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7041364710 - 5 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/12104285479 - 6 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7670809198 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/6259621294 - marketplace

One confirmed sale at 4 keys.

We also have 2 gladiator sales at ~3.9 keys, one seen in #9. Not gonna bother including it in the range, only a minor difference. Will use it to justify including it if sellers drop slightly though.

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Screaming%20Tiger%20Taunt:%20The%20Soviet%20Strongarm&at=2023-12-27T05:30:22.263Z

Only 1 sale on marketplace, much higher than sellers, as expected.

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30844;5;u3006

Taking 4 flat.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199518360841#!/compare/1709683200/1709769600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198216241727#!/compare/1709683200/1709769600

https://backpack.tf/item/9090395052

Untraceable