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Mini for darkblaze helmet without a home
Item 1:
https://backpack.tf/item/14083747463
Sale 1:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199104559253#!/compare/1708560000/1708646400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198253093948#!/compare/1708387200/1708646400
149 keys for miami tundra + spooky night kazotsky (88) = 61 keys
Item 2:
https://backpack.tf/item/9931181111
Sale 1:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062747535#!/compare/1704931200/1705017600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198034902108#!/compare/1704931200/1705017600
untrace
Sale 2:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198034902108#!/compare/1705795200/1705881600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199190065455#!/compare/1705795200/1705881600
62 keys
Sale 3:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199190065455#!/compare/1709337600/1709424000
Using in helmet without a home
Sale 4:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198425809836#!/compare/1710115200/1710201600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198261483133#!/compare/1710115200/1710201600
Burning Pugilist + 2 keys + strange festive gloves of running urgently (5.83 keys) + strange gold botkiller medigun + strange shortstop (26.44 ref)
Mini for pugilist
Item 1:
https://backpack.tf/item/328002870
Sale 1:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063070081#!/compare/1706832000/1707091200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198261483133#!/compare/1706832000/1706918400
bulk
Sale 2:
Using for miami tundra
Item 2:
https://backpack.tf/item/276028163
Sale 1:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197988617879#!/compare/1705276800/1706400000
https://next.backpack.tf/item/276028163
Dupe/screwed history
Sale 2:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198185126222#!/compare/1707091200/1707177600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198235697740#!/compare/1707004800/1707177600
No trace
Sale 3:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198235697740#!/compare/1707004800/1707177600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198285371555#!/compare/1707091200/1707350400
still no trace
Sale 4:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198285371555#!/compare/1707091200/1707350400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047819527#!/compare/1706918400/1707177600
bulk for stormy 13th pyros beanie
Sale 5:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047819527#!/compare/1707177600/1707782400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841365001#!/compare/1707609600/1708041600
Bulk for gbh modest
Since there are no usable sales for the pugilist, going to exclude Sale 4
Item 3:
https://backpack.tf/item/11533587972
Sale 1:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1703116800/1703203200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198117597416#!/compare/1703116800/1703203200
no trace
MPTF sales
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30976;5;u61
3 sales @ 139.99$
12/18/23 / 1.72 = 81.39 rounded to 81
12/30/23 / 1.68 = 83.33 rounded to 83
1/23/24 / 1.7 = 82.35 rounded to 82
despite these being above current sell orders, the consistent sales suggest they should be included
Taking 61-83
If im wrong about the mp sales i will update the suggestion
Ah first sale is my purchase:
https://imgur.com/a/PuJ5RNr
Miami Nights Tundra was listed for 63 keys
https://next.backpack.tf/classifieds/snapshots/Miami%20Nights%20Tundra%20Top/65d7d8763eb117b723054fb7
MN Tundra listed at 3475.40 ref
https://backpack.tf/suggestion/65cf86a0b4fc8018ea0207dc - this was the key price indate at the time - 55.165 ref
3475.40 / 55.165 = 63 keys
Spooky Night Taunt: Kazotsky Kick listed at 86 keys
https://next.backpack.tf/classifieds/snapshots/Spooky%20Night%20Taunt:%20Kazotsky%20Kick/65d76d92676ac34828038428
Kazotsky Kick listed at 4744.19 ref
4744.19 / 55.165 = 86 keys
So that will change your lower end of the range.
For the marketplace sales, it's recommended to take a one-week moving average around the sale.
So for the Dec 18th sale, we don't have enough data to do the full one week but I reckon we could probably try and do the best we can with the data we do have:
Dec 17th - $1.73
Dec 18th - $1.72
Dec 19th - $1.7
Dec 20th - $1.7
Dec 21st - $1.68
Average for these 5 days:
(1.73 + 1.72 + 1.7 + 1.7 + 1.68) / 5 = 1.706
$139.99 / $1.706 = 82.057 keys
$139.99 / $1.71 = 81.865 keys
Both round to 82 keys
Dec 27th - $1.7
Dec 28th - $1.68
Dec 29th - $1.68
Dec 30th - $1.68
Dec 31st - $1.74
Jan 1st - $1.74
Jan 2nd - $1.72
(1.7 + 1.68 + 1.68 + 1.68 + 1.74 + 1.74 + 1.72) / 7 = 1.706
$139.99 / $1.706 = 82.057 keys
$139.99 / $1.71 = 81.865 keys
Both round to 82 keys
Jan 20th - $1.7
Jan 21st - $1.7
Jan 22nd - $1.7
Jan 23rd - $1.7
Jan 24th - $1.7
Jan 25th - $1.72
Jan 26th - $1.7
(1.7 + 1.7 + 1.7 + 1.7 + 1.7 + 1.72 + 1.7) / 7 = 1.703
$139.99 / $1.703 = 82.20 keys
$139.99 / $1.70 = 82.35 keys
Both round down to 82 keys
So I think 63 - 82 keys could work here
ill just copy paste this in and remake the suggestion lol
https://pastebin.com/HfmEuyck here's the pastebin so you dont get the spacing