Suggestion: Kill-a-Watt L'homme Burglerre at 11 keys

Price Suggestion

~12 keys

kill-a-watt

31 votes up

18 votes down

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This suggestion was marked as insufficient evidence and closed Sun, 04 Aug 24 17:19:25 +0000 by Eazy Peazy Squeezy Lemons.

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Comments

Listed by me for 12.16k, sold for 11k

Listing Snapshot:

https://next.backpack.tf/classifieds/snapshots/Kill-a-Watt%20L'homme%20Burglerre/66140543f0e5f1d2b801facf

Item History:

https://next.backpack.tf/item/14349129119

Inventory Diff:

me: https://next.backpack.tf/profiles/76561198064173635/compare?from=1712448000&to=1712534400

buyer: https://next.backpack.tf/profiles/76561198316071886/compare?from=1712448000&to=1712534400

this is my first suggestion in 1000 years, so sorry if something is wrong

10.89 keys buy orders. Price is recently updated week ago

So is this good or bad?

Also 10.89 is a fake order, im sick of this bot ‘Harry’. Ive reported him twice for creating fake offers and as I see he is still not banned. For instance, I was trying to sell him this exact hat, he only gave me 7 keys.

you must account for other recent sales and buyers are at 13+ now so this is low

STN sells for 13, buyers at 11 now https://stntrading.eu/item/tf2/Unusual%20Kill-a-Watt%20L'homme%20Burglerre

edit: nvm misread

Looks like one sold on STN For 13.5+ (would round to 14) keys https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Kill-a-Watt%20L%27homme%20Burglerre&at=2024-07-05T14:27:18.495Z

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30182;5;u56

https://backpack.tf/item/7955720326

$25.99, May 15th, July 11th & 14th

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6 - Keys were:

$1.65, May 15th

$1.69, July 11th & 14th

25.99/1.65 = ~15.75, rounds to 16

25.99/1.69 = ~15.38, rounds to 15

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198013011182#!/compare/1719532800/1719619200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199084784906#!/compare/1719532800/1719619200

https://backpack.tf/item/7956462492

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198176658517#!/compare/1716076800/1716163200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198831628819#!/compare/1715990400/1716163200

https://backpack.tf/item/7956723301

14 keys + less than a key in metal (at the time). Gambled afterwards.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198384340487#!/compare/1717372800/1718150400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199193412191#!/compare/1717286400/1717372800

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Kill-a-Watt%20L%27homme%20Burglerre&at=2024-06-04T08:36:12.958Z - labelled as 13 keys + 45.44 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/7956723301

12 keys + 45.44 ref match, should be able to give the missing key the benefit of the doubt, and take this sale for granted (rounds to 14 keys)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198316071886#!/compare/1715904000/1715990400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198384340487#!/compare/1717372800/1718150400

https://backpack.tf/item/2715544572

Bulk for keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1721779200/1721865600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198155110999#!/compare/1721779200/1721865600

https://backpack.tf/item/2715544572

12 keys match, probably had more keys/metal involved that may appear on the buyer's end.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198010242783#!/compare/1703376000/1721001600 - Near ID: 14674107441

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199192088525#!/compare/1720915200/1721001600

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Kill-a-Watt%20L%27homme%20Burglerre&at=2024-07-15T08:39:16.785Z - labelled as 11 keys + 40.33 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/7957206471

40.33 ref matches, should be able to give the missing keys the benefit of the doubt, and take ~12 keys here.

https://imgur.com/a/eG4RPv8

https://backpack.tf/item/7956723301 - ~14.7 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/2715544572 - ~14.7 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7956973673 - ~14.7 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/2344657536 - 16 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7957206471 - marketplace

We have sales at 12, 14 (2x), 15 (marketplace), 16 (marketplace), and the other sale that's at least 12 keys. There are buyers at ~13 keys

Given the 3 sellers lower than 15, some of which have been there for quite a while, I'd exclude the marketplace sales at 15 and 16, and exclude the sales at 12 due to buyers at 13, and take 14 flat.

Feel free to take this, thank you for your work on the backlog.

Closing on account of Jarool's comment.