Using last 3 months.

Sale 1:

Sold for 13 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198261483133#!/compare/1707264000/1707350400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198350267590#!/compare/1707091200/1707350400

https://backpack.tf/item/2697602955

= 13 keys

Sale 2:

Sold for 5 keys + Binoculus (~2) + Strange Dead Ringer (~1)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198113093440#!/compare/1710115200/1710201600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074992626#!/compare/1709942400/1710201600

https://backpack.tf/item/3943167811

= 8 keys

Sale 3:

Sold for 7 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1710547200/1710633600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198102142795#!/compare/1710374400/1710633600

https://backpack.tf/item/8829565722

= 7 keys

Sale 4:

Sold for 7 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198252999692#!/compare/1709337600/1709424000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135868380#!/compare/1709164800/1710633600

https://backpack.tf/item/3694438909

= 7 keys

Sale 5:

Sold with ~0.5 in metal for 7 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1713225600/1713312000 - Near ID: 14379392346

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198035013576#!/compare/1713225600/1713312000

https://backpack.tf/item/2762328617

= 6.5 keys

Other Sales:

#1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197960305144#!/compare/1713139200/1713484800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198056722170#!/compare/1713052800/1713139200

https://backpack.tf/item/12624917342

Untraceable

#2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198327995316#!/compare/1704844800/1706832000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198177872379#!/compare/1706745600/1706832000

https://backpack.tf/item/8902978211

Backpack buy

#3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067833131#!/compare/1710028800/1710115200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1710028800/1710115200

https://backpack.tf/item/8829565722

Untraceable. Unusualified by seller.

#4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198059601444#!/compare/1709942400/1710892800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198400749309#!/compare/1709856000/1709942400

https://backpack.tf/item/6667103931

Untraceable

#5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198400749309#!/compare/1709942400/1710028800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199125108615#!/compare/1709942400/1710028800

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20Oblooterated&at=2024-03-10T14:30:51.432Z - labelled as 5 keys + 42.66 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/6667103931

Untraceable. Some keys and metal match.

#6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198166495399#!/compare/1707091200/1711670400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198252999692#!/compare/1709078400/1709251200

https://backpack.tf/item/3694438909

Probably a backpack buy

#7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198215260291#!/compare/1710547200/1711238400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1710892800/1710979200

https://backpack.tf/item/3557673754

Untraceable

#8

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1712361600/1712448000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074758287#!/compare/1711929600/1713312000

https://backpack.tf/item/3557673754

Untraceable

#9

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198126034844#!/compare/1709251200/1709510400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1709424000/1709510400

https://backpack.tf/item/3203300283

Bulk for keys

#10

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1710547200/1710633600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068068814#!/compare/1710460800/1710547200

https://backpack.tf/item/3203300283

Untraceable. Seller bought multiple things from the bot in the same day, so it’s difficult determining what keys went to what.

#11

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199221275115#!/compare/1712102400/1712188800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199521837458#!/compare/1712102400/1712188800

https://backpack.tf/item/2762328617

Untraceable

#12

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199521837458#!/compare/1712966400/1713052800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1712880000/1712966400

https://backpack.tf/item/2762328617

Untraceable

#13

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112596166#!/compare/1706745600/1707004800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198261483133#!/compare/1706832000/1706918400

https://backpack.tf/item/2697602955

Bulk for keys

https://backpack.tf/item/2966330660 - unusualified

https://backpack.tf/item/2946343447 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/2716198139 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/2700512886 - unusualified

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1120;5;u3003

$18, Feb 10th & April 18th

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6 - Keys were:

$1.72, Feb 10th

$1.65, April 18th

18/1.72 = 10.465, rounds to 10.5

18/1.65 = 10.909, rounds to 11

Sellers:

https://backpack.tf/item/4479245536 - marketplace ($18)

https://backpack.tf/item/2716198139 - marketplace ($18)

Sales at:

6.5

7 (2x)

8

10.5 (marketplace)

11 (marketplace)

13

13 is a pretty old sale, and is lower than current marketplace sellers for once. Excluding 13.

The sales at 10.5 and 11 are marketplace sales, and deviate a bit from the pure sales we have here. Since we’re representing what this item sells for in keys, it would be best to exclude the marketplace sales here. Additionally, this item has been dumped to STN around 3 times in the last 3 months, though all those are untraceable. These buys would end up being around 5-6 keys. Lastly, if I were to go with 6.5-11, I’m almost certain I’m going to be faced with a bot dump after the suggestion goes live, with the bot re-selling for ~7-8 keys, so I’m going to save myself the heartache and future-proof this range by making it 6.5-8.

Taking 6.5-8 keys.