Sale 1:

Sold to a bot for 3 keys + 56 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199207033310#!/compare/1707782400/1707868800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199125348079#!/compare/1707782400/1707868800

https://backpack.tf/item/3127925958

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Mann%20Co.%20Supply%20Crate%20Key&at=2024-02-14T15:05:28.864Z - keys were ~57.33 ref at the time

= 3.95 keys

Sale 2:

Sold to a bot for 3 keys + 50.77 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198360689424#!/compare/1707609600/1707696000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199043177646#!/compare/1707609600/1707696000

https://backpack.tf/item/13872791264

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Mann%20Co.%20Supply%20Crate%20Key&at=2024-02-12T15:05:28.864Z - keys were ~62.55 ref at the time

= 3.8 keys

Sale 3:

Sold for 3 keys + 12 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199085116273#!/compare/1711670400/1711756800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198073386321#!/compare/1711670400/1711756800

https://backpack.tf/item/2902702700

Keys were ~63.94 at the time)

= 3.2 keys

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1114;5;u3006

$6.60, Feb 10th

$6.80, Feb 24th

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6 - keys were:

$1.72, Feb 10th

$1.70, Feb 24th

6.60/1.72 = 3.837

6.80/1.7 = 4

Other Sales:

#1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199202854053#!/compare/1708560000/1715040000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199213327798#!/compare/1712361600/1712707200

https://backpack.tf/item/2715325742

SCM

#2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199213327798#!/compare/1713139200/1715040000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199280752580#!/compare/1712534400/1713744000

https://backpack.tf/item/2715325742

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/item/10026594848 - marketplace (sold before being scanned there)

https://backpack.tf/item/2815344259 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/2726924804 - mannco

Sellers:

https://imgur.com/a/Q8ga0fZ

https://backpack.tf/item/13872791264 - ~3.65 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/9164675841 - 4 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/12737242389 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/3127925958 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/3345933380 - marketplace

Sales at:

3.2

3.8

3.85 (marketplace)

3.95

4 (marketplace

The bot selling at 3 keys + 50.77 ref is the buyer of Sale 2. They’re re-selling for the price they paid. Given that they’re struggling to sell for more than they paid, and have owned the item for almost 3 months now, it should be safe to say this item isn’t going to sell well for more than their listed price. Let’s take a look at our sales now:

Of all the sales that occurred, 3.2, is the only recent-ish sale, which happened late March. All the other sales are mid-to-late February. Given the shift in the bot market since Gladiator's absence, it would be silly to try raising this item to a price bots are no longer anywhere near willing to pay for.

Two of our higher sales are marketplace sales, which are naturally higher than pure sales. We should not use them to support our higher sales.

Going to try for 3.2 keys here.