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Sale 1:
Sold with negligible metal for 8 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1737763200/1737849600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199252537253#!/compare/1737676800/1737763200
https://backpack.tf/item/12496932199
= 8 keys
Sale 2:
Sold to a bot for 7 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199149744753#!/compare/1739750400/1739923200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199085116273#!/compare/1739836800/1739923200
https://backpack.tf/item/13130407391
= 7 keys
Sale 3:
Sold for 6 keys + 65.88 ref? (~7 keys)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198182110391#!/compare/1735171200/1737676800 - Near ID: 15302738691
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199107865875#!/compare/1735516800/1735603200
https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Tainted%20Frost%20Bulb%20Bonnet&at=2025-02-27T02:16:44.423Z - labelled as 6 keys + 65.88 ref
https://backpack.tf/item/12526257767
The exact amount of metal matches. Counting this as ~7 keys.
= 7 keys
Sale 4:
Sold to a bot for 7 keys + 10 ref
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198212776984#!/compare/1734220800/1734480000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199235704407#!/compare/1734393600/1734480000
https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Tainted%20Frost%20Bulb%20Bonnet&at=2025-02-27T02:16:44.423Z - confirmed
https://backpack.tf/item/12453999580
= 7 keys
Other Sales:
#1
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199110809353#!/compare/1737244800/1737331200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053783254#!/compare/1737072000/1737331200
https://backpack.tf/item/14667355104
Untraceable, 2 keys match
#2
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198868631711#!/compare/1736553600/1736640000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198023385860#!/compare/1729555200/1738972800
https://backpack.tf/item/13605370648
Untraceable, 1 key in metal matches
#3
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1732924800/1733011200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198299129796#!/compare/1732924800/1733011200
https://backpack.tf/item/13594149705
Untraceable, 2 keys match
#4
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198299129796#!/compare/1733443200/1733529600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199538198279#!/compare/1733702400/1733788800
https://backpack.tf/item/13594149705
Untraceable, missing info in history
#5
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198874031936#!/compare/1734739200/1740614400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059800460#!/compare/1738022400/1738108800
https://backpack.tf/item/13174565455
Untraceable
#6
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199017959799#!/compare/1735516800/1735603200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198182110391#!/compare/1735171200/1737676800
https://backpack.tf/item/12526257767
Untraceable
#7
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199107865875#!/compare/1736553600/1736640000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198023385860#!/compare/1729555200/1738972800
https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Tainted%20Frost%20Bulb%20Bonnet&at=2025-02-27T02:16:44.423Z - labelled as 7 keys + 60 ref
https://backpack.tf/item/12526257767
Untraceable
#8
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198246208014#!/compare/1736640000/1736726400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1736640000/1736726400
https://backpack.tf/item/12496932199
Bulk to STN
#9
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199252537253#!/compare/1738368000/1739059200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199043177646#!/compare/1738281600/1738368000
https://backpack.tf/item/12496932199
Untraceable, follows the 8 key sale
https://backpack.tf/item/15210366248 - mannco
https://backpack.tf/item/12669270683 - marketplace/auction
https://backpack.tf/item/12656595950 - marketplace
https://backpack.tf/item/12510153757 - mannco
https://backpack.tf/item/12436218982 - account transfer
https://backpack.tf/item/12420682544 - mannco
Marketplace Sales:
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31335;5;u277
$15.99, December 14th, January 8th, February 8th & 14th
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6 - keys were:
$1.75, Dec 14th
$1.78, Jan 8th
$1.82, Feb 8th & 14th
15.99/1.75 = 9.137, rounds to 9 keys
15.99/1.78 = 8.983, rounds to 9 keys
15.99/1.82 = 8.786, rounds to 9 keys (2x)
Sellers:
https://i.imgur.com/GyotbPC.png
https://backpack.tf/item/13174565455 - ~7.2 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/12496932199 - ~7.2 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/12436218982 - 8 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/13042878029 - marketplace
https://backpack.tf/item/12631795447 - marketplace
https://backpack.tf/item/12516747697 - marketplace
https://backpack.tf/item/14245427672 - marketplace
https://backpack.tf/item/12453999580 - marketplace
https://backpack.tf/item/12669270683 - marketplace
Sales at:
7 (3x)
8
9 (4x, marketplace)
8 re-sold to a bot, invalidating the sale.
The marketplace sales at 9 stray too far from the current sellers. Excluding 9.
Taking 7 flat.
I do think that under normal circumstances, 8 would be invalidated due to reselling for less. At the same time, though -- 7 flat feels too low here since not only there's five sales that are higher, but bots are buying for 7.
Including 9 doesn't make much sense either, since there's so many unsolds at 8. So, I think the best course of action here is to include 8 as a compromise.
These untraceable sales seem to support the idea of including 8:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1740700800/1740787200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198852021056#!/compare/1738972800/1741132800
Untraceable. Likely sold for 8 given quicksell.store's current, and previous listings.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1740960000/1741046400
Untraceable. Likely sold for 8 given stn is currently buying for 7. Was likely scammed looking at the history.
Additionally, it seems that both ~7.2 sellers have also sold. As of now, they are untraceable:
https://backpack.tf/item/13174565455
https://backpack.tf/item/12496932199
This is a tricky one, but I think 7-8 will be the correct call long-term, even if the evidence for it isn't the best.
will do, cheers