Suggestion: Frosted Decadence Undercover Brolly at 12 keys - backpack.tf

Price Suggestion

~11 keys

frosted decadence

63 votes up

1 vote down

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This suggestion was closed Tue, 15 Apr 25 00:48:57 +0000 by the submitter.

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Sale 1:

Sold for Aussie SMG (~11 keys) + Bucking Bronco Unusualifier

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043625371#!/compare/1743552000/1743638400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198419871336#!/compare/1743120000/1743552000

https://backpack.tf/item/12819858962

= ~12 keys

Sale 2:

Sold to a bot for 11 keys + ~1 key in metal

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198419871336#!/compare/1743120000/1743552000 - Near ID: 15600764949

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199125443371#!/compare/1743552000/1743465600

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Frosted%20Decadence%20Undercover%20Brolly&at=2025-04-11T02:43:57.077Z - confirmed

https://backpack.tf/item/12819858962

Occurred after the Aussie SMG sale

= 12 keys

Sale 3:

Sold to a bot for 11 keys + ~1 key in metal

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062747535#!/compare/1743724800/1743897600 - Near ID: 15609623571

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059800460#!/compare/1743724800/1743811200

https://backpack.tf/item/12819858962

= 12 keys

Other Sales:

#1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198128968043#!/compare/1741910400/1742428800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198100128531#!/compare/1720137600/1742083200

https://backpack.tf/item/12819858962

Untraceable, probably gambled. Gambled prior.

#2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198100128531#!/compare/1720137600/1742083200 - won’t update

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043625371#!/compare/1741651200/1742083200

https://backpack.tf/item/12819858962

Untraceable, likely bulk for keys

#3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199407485932#!/compare/1738281600/1738454400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198326567308#!/compare/1738368000/1738454400

https://backpack.tf/item/12012997226

Untraceable/Bulk

#4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199004754474#!/compare/1736985600/1742774400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198870819168#!/compare/1728086400/1740960000

https://backpack.tf/item/11992603569

Untraceable

#5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198870819168#!/compare/1741737600/1742860800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198033286325#!/compare/1741651200/1741996800

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Frosted%20Decadence%20Undercover%20Brolly&at=2025-04-11T02:43:57.077Z - labelled as ~11 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/11992603569

Untraceable

#6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198033286325#!/compare/1742601600/1742688000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198096558252#!/compare/1742601600/1742688000

https://backpack.tf/item/11992603569

Untraceable

#7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1741737600/1741824000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1741737600/1741824000

https://backpack.tf/item/11940104088

Untraceable

#8

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198030119065#!/compare/1741564800/1741651200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199111073161#!/compare/1741478400/1741564800

https://backpack.tf/item/11925888703

Bulk

#9

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080283111#!/compare/1741651200/1743724800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080947868#!/compare/1743120000/1743638400

https://backpack.tf/item/11921685703

Untraceable

#10

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059800460#!/compare/1737590400/1737676800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199148314072#!/compare/1717286400/1737763200

https://backpack.tf/item/11920779252

Untraceable

#11

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199148314072#!/compare/1737763200/1739664000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059698603#!/compare/1739059200/1739145600

https://backpack.tf/item/11920779252

Untraceable, bulk-ish

#12

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059698603#!/compare/1740355200/1740441600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199403343860#!/compare/1739750400/1740700800

https://backpack.tf/item/11920779252

Untraceable

#13

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199403343860#!/compare/1740700800/1740873600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1740614400/1740700800

https://backpack.tf/item/11920779252

Untraceable

#14

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Frosted%20Decadence%20Undercover%20Brolly&at=2025-04-11T02:43:57.077Z

https://backpack.tf/item/12133896400 - tradeback

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31262;5;u226

$26.99, Jan 16th, Feb 15th, & March 15th

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6 - keys were:

$1.78, Jan 16th

$1.82, Feb 15th

$1.87, March 15th

26.99/1.78 = 15.163, rounds to 15 keys

26.99/1.82 = 14.83, rounds to 15 keys

26.99/1.87 = 14.433, rounds to 14 keys

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/MnP6exg.png

https://backpack.tf/item/11940104088 - ~13 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/11925888703 - ~13.3 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/12012997226 - 15 keys

https://i.imgur.com/b5i9Q8p.png - highest buyer at ~10.5 keys

Sales at:

12 (3x)

14 (marketplace)

15 (2x, marketplace)

The 1st sale at 12 may be a little higher, but considering the buyer re-sold to a bot shortly after, it should be fine to exclude it if so.

2 sellers at 13 keys, excluding the marketplace sales at 14 and 15.

Taking 12 flat.

I would just give this the full range. Feels a bit weird to only use bot buys

are you sure? generally not a fan of using marketplace sales in situations like this since they're usually always significantly higher than sellers. as for the buy order purchases, the bots have lowered to 10.5 keys after the fact, some of the bot owners re-selling to other bots shortly after getting it, as they most likely didn't think they'd get much more out of it themselves.

if it's worth it, i can look into the bronco unusualifier and see if it rounds to 13, and use that as a last resort for a high end, despite re-selling for ~12.

In situations like these, where its not even uncommon for them to succesfully sell higher even when classified sellers remain unsold at the same time. If that happens frequently, then it might simply indicate that classifieds get lower traffic. Ive seen plenty of cases where someone couldve bought the keys on MP to buy a hat from the classifieds such that they would have funds to spare, implying its not even the fees that inflate the values.

Especialy in cases where marketplace sales are also abundant, and the only other sales are bot dumps, it would be better to just fully reflect the market.

alright, i'll oblige, though i do feel we should be giving priority to the pure sales, and treat marketplace sales similar to how we treat item sales, especially considering the sellers of the items aren't getting the full amount the buyer is paying, though that's just bringing up the old debate of including fees again.