Suggestion: Nebula Universal Translator at 425–481 keys

Scorching Flames Federal Casemaker (instantly sold for 230 keys) + Isotope Professional Killstreak Aqua Marine Rocket Launcher (Field-Tested) + 246 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198021055079#!/compare/1743724800/1743984000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198153621540#!/compare/1743897600/1743984000

Isotope Professional Killstreak Aqua Marine Rocket Launcher (Field-Tested) mini

https://backpack.tf/item/3979348040

35 keys + ~2 keys sweets

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198137924934#!/compare/1741132800/1741219200 (ID: 15516570951)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198881680887#!/compare/1741132800/1741219200

35 + 2 = 37

Back to Sale #15

230 + 37 + 246 = 513

Rounding to 510

Sale #16

https://backpack.tf/item/9958927248

Sold for a Scorching Flames Well-Rounded Rifleman (in date at 235.5) + Hypno-Eyes (20.65) + 140 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198153621540#!/compare/1746662400/1746835200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199745887780#!/compare/1746748800/1746835200

235.5 + 20.65 + 140 = 396.2

Rounding to 400

Sale #17

https://backpack.tf/item/9958927248

Sold for a Purple Energy Sinner's Shade + Strange Festivized Professional Killstreak Australium Tomislav (FH + HR) (buyers at 38) + Scorching Flames Das Ubersternmann (in date at 450)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199745887780#!/compare/1747699200/1747785600 (ID: 15757631880)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199078494143#!/compare/1747353600/1747785600

Purple Energy Sinner's Shade mini

https://backpack.tf/item/15119934645

55 keys 3 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1747699200/1747785600 (ID: 15759111739)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054848760#!/compare/1742860800/1747785600

Rounding to 55

Back to Sale #17

55 + 38 + 450 = 543

Rounding to 540

Sale #18

https://backpack.tf/item/9011293955

435 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198344570674#!/compare/1745712000/1745884800 (ID: 15687746539)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198297554259#!/compare/1742342400/1745884800

Sale #19

https://backpack.tf/item/8678569873

Untraceable / bulk?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198220098345#!/compare/1743292800/1743379200

Sale #20

https://backpack.tf/item/8478515028

Untraceable / bp sale

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057377305#!/compare/1744761600/1744848000

Sale #21

https://backpack.tf/item/8478515028

Cash?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198195657334#!/compare/1715040000/1746662400

Sale #22

https://backpack.tf/item/8117745328

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197960302839#!/compare/1741651200/1741737600

Sale #23

https://backpack.tf/item/8034948540

Cash

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093889730#!/compare/1741305600/1741478400

Sale #24

https://backpack.tf/item/8034948540

Cash

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198039677658#!/compare/1742342400/1747180800

Sale #25

https://backpack.tf/item/7948466973

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198092249751#!/compare/1740700800/1740873600

Sale #26

https://backpack.tf/item/7948466973

Glitched circuit board (332.5 in date) + 130 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198342722151#!/compare/1741392000/1741478400 (ID: 15528653119)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199115013990#!/compare/1741392000/1741478400 (untraceable)

332.5 + 130 = 462.5

Rounding to 460

Sale #27

https://backpack.tf/item/7912549073

cashout

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074378939#!/compare/1742428800/1742774400

Sale #28

https://backpack.tf/item/7912549073

429 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198244962432#!/compare/1747612800/1747699200 (ID: 15753275761)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199286662085#!/compare/1747612800/1747699200

Sale #29

https://backpack.tf/item/7817209165

455 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1742688000/1742774400 (ID: 15574697462)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199384906333#!/compare/1742601600/1742774400

Sale #30

https://backpack.tf/item/7817209165

Bulk for a double spelled Something Burning This Way Comes Nanobalaclava

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199384906333#!/compare/1744243200/1744329600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198396499936#!/compare/1744156800/1744329600

No mini available for the nanobalaclava

Sale #31

https://backpack.tf/item/7672464451

Sold for a Scorching Flames Cloud Crasher + double spelled Max's Severed Head

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198168828695#!/compare/1744848000/1745193600 (ID: 15660938443)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199142817642#!/compare/1745107200/1745193600

No good mini for the max's

Sale #32

https://backpack.tf/item/7672464451

Sold for a Burning Flames Hat With No Name + Strange Specialized Killstreak Australium Grenade Launcher (21) + Strange Specialized Killstreak Australium Rocket Launcher (46)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199142817642#!/compare/1745452800/1745539200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198078666051#!/compare/1745452800/1745539200

Burning Flames Hat With No Name mini

https://backpack.tf/item/12756080637

HWNN + Glowing Fireworks Throttlehead + Permafrost Essence Taunt: The Travel Agent for a Pumpkin Moon Wandering Wraith (in date at 445)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060609260#!/compare/1742774400/1743033600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198316831771#!/compare/1743033600/1743033600/nearest

Glowing Fireworks Throttlehead mini

https://backpack.tf/item/12598967343

29 keys 0.88 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198380634252#!/compare/1744156800/1744243200 (ID: 15623343269)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1744156800/1744156800/nearest

Rounding to 29

Permafrost Essence Taunt: The Travel Agent mini

https://backpack.tf/stats/Unusual/Taunt%3A%20The%20Travel%20Agent/Tradable/Craftable/3139

Seller at 5 keys, buyers at 3.7. It wont make a difference for this kind of trade so I will round it to 4.

Back to the HWNN mini

445 - 29 - 4 = 412

Rounding to 410

Back to Sale #32

410 + 21 + 46 = 477

Rounding to 480

Sale #33

https://backpack.tf/item/7672464451

Sold for a Scorching Flames Brotherhood of Arms + 58 keys (look at key history for proof)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198078666051#!/compare/1745884800/1745971200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198161541088#!/compare/1745712000/1745971200

Scorching Flames Brotherhood of Arms mini

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30066;5;u14

https://backpack.tf/item/14042109651 (maybe)

Marketplace.tf sale on 5/28/25

$799.99 / $1.93 (median value at the time) = 414.5

Rounding to 415

Back to Sale #33

415 + 58 = 473

Rounding to 470

Sale #34

https://backpack.tf/item/7672464451

425 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198161541088#!/compare/1746835200/1747180800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198220121581#!/compare/1747008000/1747180800

Sale #35

https://backpack.tf/item/7672464451

411 keys + Steaming Cold Killer

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198220121581#!/compare/1747699200/1747872000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198933897571#!/compare/1746921600/1747872000

Steaming Cold Killer mini

https://backpack.tf/stats/Unusual/Cold%20Killer/Tradable/Craftable/36

No usable mini, taking buyers at 29

Back to Sale #35

411 + 29 = 440

440

Sale #36

https://backpack.tf/item/7464878693

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198261483133#!/compare/1743638400/1743724800

Sale #37

https://backpack.tf/item/7210054536

Sold for an Otherworldly Weather Blast Defense (in date at 300) + 100 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199022049126#!/compare/1747008000/1747094400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197962821756#!/compare/1747008000/1747094400

300 + 100 = 400

400

Sale #38

https://backpack.tf/item/7210054536

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197962821756#!/compare/1747353600/1747440000

Sale #39

https://backpack.tf/item/6684771676

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198077670577#!/compare/1740528000/1747180800

Sale #40

https://backpack.tf/item/6633902359

Universal Translator + Corona Australis for a Chiroptera Venenata Western Wear

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198154537737#!/compare/1743984000/1744329600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048724906#!/compare/1744156800/1744416000

Gonna use there

Sale #41

https://backpack.tf/item/5285058330

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119921465#!/compare/1741651200/1742256000

Sale #42

https://backpack.tf/item/5285058330

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1742169600/1742342400

Sale #43

https://backpack.tf/item/4254695341

435 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198875667823#!/compare/1743638400/1743724800 (ID: 15606521770)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067522907#!/compare/1743638400/1743724800

Sale #44

https://backpack.tf/item/4221959850

Sold for a Burning Flames Napper's Respite + 200 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198260467278#!/compare/1742774400/1743033600 (ID: 15581764670)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198321019586#!/compare/1742774400/1743033600

Burning Flames Napper's Respite mini

https://backpack.tf/item/13776898340

250 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198260467278#!/compare/1743811200/1743897600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199746241974#!/compare/1743811200/1743897600

Back to Sale #44

250 + 200 = 450

450

Sale #45

https://backpack.tf/item/4221959850

Sold for a Scorching Flames Pithy Professional + Fireproof Secret Diary (in date at 305) + 30 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198321019586#!/compare/1743811200/1744675200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198302399911#!/compare/1744502400/1744675200 (untraceable)

Scorching Flames Pithy Professional mini

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30915;5;u14

History not found

Marketplace.tf sale on 5/06/25

$275.00 / $1.95 (median value at the time) = ~141.0

Rounding to 141

Back to Sale #45

141 + 305 + 30 = 476

Rounding to 480

Current sellers:

$868.99 on mp.tf (3x)

$1255.61 on SCM

$864.99 on mannco.store

$865.00 on mannco.store (2x)

433 keys on bp.tf

439 keys on bp.tf

440 keys on bp.tf

450 keys on bp.tf

460 keys on bp.tf (5x)

475 keys on bp.tf

Sales: 481, 476, 469, 455, 429, 453, 313, 405, 510, 400, 540, 435, 460, 429, 455, 480, 470, 425, 440, 400, 435, 450, 480

Getting rid of the 313 sale which is way below buy orders and other sales. Gonna plug these all into a standard deviation calculator:

Mean = 453.5

Standard deviation = 33.6

Sales that now fall out of the range include the following: 405, 400, 400, 510, 540

Final price: 425 - 481

Page of sellers below your high end (almost down to your low end), range feels way too big.

That strategy of excluding everything out of expected range also doesn't really work since most of your sales are high cash sales from marketplace.

Most those cheap sellers are pretty recent. Less than a weak ago the cheapest seller was 450

cheapest seller at 433 has been listed for two weeks, 460 unsold for two/three months, at least the 460+ sales are way too high to use, probably some of the ones that are less as well

2 weeks is not enough time to determine that a 450 key isn't a quicksell tho, that's written in the unusual suggestions rules. If it doesnt move after another few weeks this may need to be resuggested

Alr, doesn't change that two are unsold at 460. a mod will tell you how to range this better so I guess just leave this up and wait for them

Usually they prefer to have a high end that's a bit above current sellers if it gives an accurate range, from what I've seen

I'm just going to start this by saying this is great work for a Green Belt, most experienced suggesters steer clear of hats like this, so kudos for giving this a stab.

Here's how I'd work out the range, I've tried to list my process here so it may help you next time. Whilst standard deviation works in stats, its not followed with suggestions.

An ordered list of sales:

313, 400, 400, 405, 405, 425, 429, 429, 435, 435, 440, 450, 453, 455, 455, 460, 469, 470, 476, 480, 480, 481, 510, 540

You actually have a second sale at 405 keys

Since we have a lot of data points we can be pretty heavy hitting with outliers here.

Buy orders are at 390 so that eliminates 313.

There is a 2 month unsold at 460 here, so anything really above that is going to be an outlier, that's a considerable unsold, especially on a frequently traded item like this.

Typically, cash sales on marketplace are a little higher than key sales as there's a 10% selling fee there. So the seller of the 481 sale only received 432 keys. Whilst that's not evidence alone, it can be useful in situations like here to narrow the range.

Given the 400 sales were item based and we are excluding a lot of high outliers, those can be removed.

That leaves us with:

405, 405, 425, 429, 429, 435, 435, 440, 450, 453, 455, 455, 460

405 - 460 seems fine to me. It's balanced by removing high and low sales and contains mostly pure sales.

Thank you! ill resuggest at 405-460