Sale #1

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31211;5;u201

History not found

Marketplace.tf sale on 4/06/25

$186.67 / $1.89 (median value at the time) = 98.8

Rounding to 99

Sale #2

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31211;5;u201

https://backpack.tf/item/12676139294

Marketplace.tf sale on 5/08/25

$178.20 / $1.93 (median value at the time) = 92.3

Rounding to 92

Sale #3

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31211;5;u201

History not found

Marketplace.tf sale on 5/21/25

$178.20 / $1.94 (median value at the time) = 91.9

Rounding to 92

Sale #4

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31211;5;u201

History not found

Marketplace.tf sale on 6/03/25

$178.20 / $1.97 (median value at the time) = 90.5

Rounding to 91

Sale #5

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31211;5;u201

https://backpack.tf/item/14337201090

Marketplace.tf sale on 6/08/25

$178.20 / $1.93 (median value at the time) = 92.3

Rounding to 92

Sale #6

https://backpack.tf/item/15509625679

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199011076258#!/compare/1743897600/1743984000

Sale #7

https://backpack.tf/item/15509625679

Sold for a Haunted Kraken Victorian Villainy + Conga (3.7) + 1 key

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197962821756#!/compare/1744070400/1744156800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199033928431#!/compare/1744070400/1744156800

Haunted Kraken Victorian Villainy mini

https://backpack.tf/item/12206612222

81 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199177132803#!/compare/1745712000/1745884800 (ID: 15681908695)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198133991629#!/compare/1745625600/1745712000

Capped by current buyers, gonna use highest at 83.40

83.40

Back to Sale #7

83.40 + 3.7 + 1 = 88.1

Rounding to 88

Sale #8

https://backpack.tf/item/15509625679

Bulk for a Ravenous Ravens Shadow Shroud

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199033928431#!/compare/1744848000/1745193600

Use there

Sale #9

https://backpack.tf/item/15509625679

89 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198858282680#!/compare/1745020800/1745193600 (untraceable)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198221808192#!/compare/1745020800/1745193600

Sale #10

https://backpack.tf/item/15509625679

Untraceable, dumped to STN

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198221808192#!/compare/1745539200/1745625600

Sale #11

https://backpack.tf/item/15509625679

Untraceable, if its the prehistoric pullover its high anyways

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1746230400/1746316800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198161980756#!/compare/1746316800/1746403200

Sale #12

https://backpack.tf/item/15509625679

Topper + Stormy Storm Blast Defense + Galactic Flame Mannhattan Protect for a Scorching Flames Galvanized Gibus

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198161980756#!/compare/1746748800/1746835200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1746748800/1746835200

Better used to price the Gibus

Sale #13

https://backpack.tf/item/15509625679

Untraceable, histories don't match

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199771261558#!/compare/1747094400/1747353600

Sale #14

https://backpack.tf/item/15509625679

Sold for a Starstorm Slumber Nasty Norsemann + Vicious Vortex El Mostacho + Pumpkin Party Hollowed Helm

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199771261558#!/compare/1747785600/1747958400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1747699200/1747785600

Starstorm Slumber Nasty Norsemann mini

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30810;5;u110

https://backpack.tf/item/5300859207 (maybe)

Marketplace.tf sale on 4/27/25

$77.99 / $1.93 (median value at the time) = 40.4

Rounding to 40

Vicious Vortex El Mostacho mini

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31074;5;u123

Marketplace.tf sale on 6/06/25 for $36.99

Caps at current sellers, using lowest at 15.52

Pumpkin Party Hollowed Helm mini

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31128;5;u163

Marketplace.tf sale on 4/24/25 for $50.00

Caps at current sellers, using lowest at 26

Back to Sale #14

40 + 15.52 + 26 = 81.52

Rounding to 82

Sale #15

https://backpack.tf/item/15509625679

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198978468308#!/compare/1747785600/1749513600

Sale #16

https://backpack.tf/item/15475359734

Untraceable, keys used too quickly

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198316071886#!/compare/1747872000/1748044800

Sale #17

https://backpack.tf/item/15445610627

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198259096033#!/compare/1730246400/1746921600

Sale #18

https://backpack.tf/item/15445610627

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198259096033#!/compare/1747353600/1747872000

Sale #19

https://backpack.tf/item/15445610627

Untraceable, histories don't match

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059698603#!/compare/1747785600/1747872000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198026790233#!/compare/1747699200/1747785600

Sale #20

https://backpack.tf/item/15388711540

96 keys (keys bought from mannco and then used in trade)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198352739346#!/compare/1746748800/1747267200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198211610285#!/compare/1746835200/1747353600

Sale #21

https://backpack.tf/item/15335925293

Untraceable, inventory did not update

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079393691#!/compare/1747872000/1748304000

Sale #22

https://backpack.tf/item/14337201090

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199235704407#!/compare/1741737600/1741824000

Sale #23

https://backpack.tf/item/14337201090

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199536459741#!/compare/1741910400/1741996800

Sale #24

https://backpack.tf/item/14337201090

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199132184792#!/compare/1741910400/1742083200

Sale #25

https://backpack.tf/item/14167687090

94 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050651176#!/compare/1746835200/1746921600 (Key ID: 15723422473)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198206054941#!/compare/1746748800/1746921600

Sale #26

https://backpack.tf/item/12962119219

Bulk for a Starstorm Slumber Killer Exclusive

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198854839709#!/compare/1749427200/1749513600

Better used there

Sale #27

https://backpack.tf/item/11979415283

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045857997#!/compare/1749340800/1749513600

Sale #28

https://backpack.tf/item/11617899730

91 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198109161900#!/compare/1743552000/1743638400 (Key ID: 15603981084)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198321019586#!/compare/1743638400/1743724800

Sale #29

https://backpack.tf/item/11536463009

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199191939719#!/compare/1747353600/1747440000

Sale #30

https://backpack.tf/item/11163807822

Sold for a Purple Energy Head Hedge (32) + Strange Specialized Killstreak Australium Rocket Launcher (44.8) + 4 keys + ~10 keys in sweets (unusual and aussie were both dumped to bots first, taking quickbuy prices)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197972404012#!/compare/1743897600/1744070400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198372237308#!/compare/1742860800/1743984000

32 + 44.8 + 4 + 10 = 90.8

Rounding to 91

Sale #31

https://backpack.tf/item/11163807822

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198372237308#!/compare/1746057600/1749600000

Sale #32

https://backpack.tf/item/10915468553

Twisted Topper + Cloud 9 Patriot's Peak for a Strange Australium Medi Gun + Celestial Summit Mean Captain (in date at 155)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198407556030#!/compare/1748044800/1749168000

The Topper equals close to if not less than 50% of the value of this trade, so it's probably wiser not to use it considering we have plenty of pure sales to select from

Sale #33

https://backpack.tf/item/10824372949

Bulk for a Strange Pumpkin Moon Twisted Topper

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199771261558#!/compare/1744243200/1744329600

Use there

Sale #34

https://backpack.tf/item/10824372949

Sold for a Tesla Coil Neckwear Headwear + 22 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199111073161#!/compare/1744502400/1744588800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198977562505#!/compare/1744502400/1744588800

Tesla Coil Neckwear Headwear mini

https://backpack.tf/item/5250559610

Sold for a Frozen Icefall Citizen Cane + Searing Stove Fleet Commander (in date at 35)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199072654974#!/compare/1742256000/1742169600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198977562505#!/compare/1741824000/1742342400

Frozen Icefall Citizen Cane mini

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31091;5;u135

Marketplace.tf sale on 5/30/25 for $99.99

Caps at current sellers, taking lowest at 47

Back to Tesla Coil Neckwear Headwear mini

47 + 35 = 82

82

Back to Sale #34

82 + 22 = 104

Rounding to 105

Sale #35

https://backpack.tf/item/10824372949

86 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198977562505#!/compare/1745366400/1745884800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198409667538#!/compare/1745712000/1745798400

Sale #36

https://backpack.tf/item/10824372949

86 keys again a day later lol

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198409667538#!/compare/1745798400/1745884800

Sale #37

https://backpack.tf/item/10824372949

Sold with 13 keys for a Searing Plasma Crones Dome + Dynamite Abs (~5)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088878793#!/compare/1747180800/1747267200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199356577373#!/compare/1747008000/1747267200

Searing Plasma Crones Dome mini

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/920;5;u15

History not found

Marketplace.tf sale on 4/17/25

$224.99 / $1.91 (median value at the time) = 117.8

Rounding to 118

Back to Sale #37

118 + 5 - 13 = 110

110

Sale #38

https://backpack.tf/item/10824372949

Untraceable, histories are not clear

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199356577373#!/compare/1747785600/1749427200

Sale #39

https://backpack.tf/item/10824372949

88 keys 18 ref

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198177354155#!/compare/1746057600/1748304000 (ID: 15778262695)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198357098924#!/compare/1748131200/1748304000

Rounding to 88

Sale #40

https://backpack.tf/item/10824372949

Sold for a Hellspawned Horns Ludicrously Lunatic Lunon Fedora + Dragonflies' Nature Taunt: The Victory Lap + Fountain of Delight Taunt: Conga + 33 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198357098924#!/compare/1748304000/1748390400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199094171261#!/compare/1748217600/1748390400

Hellspawned Horns Ludicrously Lunatic Lunon Fedora mini

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31383;5;u297

Marketplace.tf sale on 5/18/25 for $119.99

Caps at current sellers, taking lowest at 55

Dragonflies' Nature Taunt: The Victory Lap mini

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1172;5;u3147

History not found

Marketplace.tf sale on 5/24/25

$29.99 / $1.92 (median value at the time) = 15.6

Rounding to 16

Fountain of Delight Taunt: Conga mini

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1118;5;u3005

Marketplace.tf sale on 2/22/25 for $50.00

Caps at current sellers, taking lowest at 25

Back to Sale #40

55 + 16 + 25 + 33 = 129

Rounding to 130

Sale #41

https://backpack.tf/item/10789059530

Untraceable, histories don't match

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198082775892#!/compare/1742083200/1742169600

Sale #42

https://backpack.tf/item/10789059530

91 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199202230937#!/compare/1742342400/1742428800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198339104273#!/compare/1742256000/1742342400

Sale #43

https://backpack.tf/item/10789059530

95 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198339104273#!/compare/1742601600/1742774400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002245914#!/compare/1742601600/1742774400

Sale #44

https://backpack.tf/item/10789059530

Bulk for a Stellar Ascent Mean Captain maybe?

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002245914#!/compare/1745020800/1745107200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199128182851#!/compare/1745020800/1745107200

Sale #45

https://backpack.tf/item/10789059530

83 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199128182851#!/compare/1746403200/1746576000 (ID: 15710650654)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198315558870#!/compare/1746403200/1746489600

Sale #46

https://backpack.tf/item/10783905808

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199389274250#!/compare/1742256000/1742342400

Sale #47

https://backpack.tf/item/10783905808

72 keys + Cursed Forever! Fierarm Protector

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1742342400/1742428800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198141628724#!/compare/1742342400/1742428800

Cursed Forever! Firearm Protector mini

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31310;5;u264

Marketplace.tf sale on 4/07/25 for $49.90

Caps at current sellers, taking lowest at 23.49

Back to Sale #47

72 + 23.49 = 95.49

Rounding to 95

Sale #48

https://backpack.tf/item/10783905808

94 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198141628724#!/compare/1743984000/1744070400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197972404012#!/compare/1743897600/1744070400

Sale #49

https://backpack.tf/item/10780277764

90 keys + 10 ToD tickets (0.5 keys each)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198308371114#!/compare/1743724800/1743897600 (ID: 15610154221)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198123314384#!/compare/1743638400/1743897600

90 + 5 = 95

95

Sale #50

https://backpack.tf/item/10780277764

Untraceable, dumped to STN and keys used too quickly

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198123314384#!/compare/1746316800/1746403200

Sale #51

https://backpack.tf/item/10780277764

89 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1746489600/1746576000 (ID: 15712634267)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198251960730#!/compare/1746489600/1746576000

Sale #52

https://backpack.tf/item/10780277764

Untraceable, histories don't add up

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198251960730#!/compare/1748131200/1748217600

Sale #53

https://backpack.tf/item/10780185720

90 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079821428#!/compare/1744761600/1744848000 (ID: 15647043785)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198339104273#!/compare/1744588800/1744934400

Sale #54

https://backpack.tf/item/10745898343

Untraceable, can't figure out what went for what

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198012916152#!/compare/1744761600/1746057600

Sale #55

https://backpack.tf/item/10745898343

92 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059698603#!/compare/1745539200/1745625600 (ID: 15676162590)

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198039308039#!/compare/1744848000/1745712000

Sale #56

https://backpack.tf/item/10745898343

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198039308039#!/compare/1745712000/1745798400

Sale #57

https://backpack.tf/item/15590043802

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199052201609#!/compare/1742342400/1742860800

Sale #58

https://backpack.tf/item/15590043802

Cash?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049187567#!/compare/1735862400/1745280000

Gladiator.tf sales:

93 keys on 5/06/25

80 keys on 4/27/25

88 keys 23.66 ref on 4/20/25

87 keys on 3/29/25

90 keys 49.88 ref on 3/17/25

90 keys 50 ref on 3/17/25

90 keys 46.66 ref on 3/16/25

90 keys 41.44 ref on 3/14/25

90 keys 36.44 ref on 3/12/25

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Pumpkin%20Moon%20Twisted%20Topper&at=2025-06-11T00:28:55.463Z

Current sellers:

$229.95 on mp.tf

$174.99 on mannco.store (2x)

$287.50 on SCM

$1412.20 on SCM

87 keys on bp.tf

91 keys on bp.tf (2x)

92 keys on bp.tf

99 keys on bp.tf

100 keys on bp.tf

102 keys on bp.tf

110 keys on bp.tf

Sales: 99, 92, 92, 91, 92, 88, 89, 82, 96, 94, 91, 91, 105, 86, 86, 110, 88, 130, 91, 95, 83, 95, 94, 95, 89, 90, 92

The 110 and 130 key sales are disproportionately high, especially considering they weren't pure sales when we have so many to choose from. The current sellers that are below 99 keys are all pretty new so they shouldn't be used to ignore the sales in the upper 90s. I think given how much this hat fluctuates, its best just to give it a large range.

Final price: 82 - 99